The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 14-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is brutal in terms of top-end pitching, with only two starters possessing salaries above $10,000 on DraftKings:
Patrick Corbin is the most expensive option on both DraftKings and FanDuel but hasn’t lived up to his price tag recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -1.86 on DraftKings over his past 10 starts and allowed at least five runs in three of his past four outings. As bad as his results have been, the Statcast data from his past two starts has been worse. He’s allowed an average distance of 232 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 51%, all three of which are among the worst marks on the slate.
Still, Corbin is in a potential bounceback spot today vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates. Their projected lineup has posted a splits-adjusted wOBA of just .271 and strikeout rate of 24.6%, and Corbin has averaged an elite 11.32 K/9 through his first 15 starts. Pitching in Pittsburgh also rewards Corbin with a Park Factor of 88, which is the third-best mark on the slate. He’s projected for just 5-8% ownership on DraftKings and 2-4% ownership on FanDuel, which could give him some appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
The other high-priced option is Sean Newcomb, who has been outstanding in his second MLB season. He has compiled a 2.70 ERA and 9.11 K/9 and scored 29.7 DraftKings points in his last outing.
He has a dream matchup today against the Baltimore Orioles, who have averaged the second-fewest runs per game this season. Their projected lineup has been particularly futile against left-handed pitching, owning a .274 wOBA and 30.0% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. Newcomb’s Vegas data is impressive with a 3.6-run opponent implied total and -184 moneyline odds. He owns a K Prediction of 6.8, which is the fifth-highest mark on today’s slate.
Values
CC Sabathia has been impressive over his past three starts, averaging a Plus/Minus of +9.73 on DraftKings. That includes a 10-strikeout performance in his most recent start against the Rays, who have struggled against Sabathia over the past two seasons. In that span he’s posted a team-specific Plus/Minus of +2.37 and a Consistency Rating of 80% over five starts.
He faces the Rays once again today, and Sabathia owns solid marks in opponent implied run total (3.6), moneyline odds (-160) and K Prediction (6.1). He’s also facing them in Tampa Bay, which has historically been a much more pitcher-friendly stadium than Yankee Stadium.
The only real concern with Sabathia is his $8,900 price tag on DraftKings. He’s $2,400 more expensive than he was at the beginning of the season, and it’s fair to question if he has enough strikeout ability to pay off his elevated salary. Even though he stuck out 10 batters in his last start, he’s averaged a K/9 of just 7.33 over the past 12 months. Historically, pitchers with comparable price tags and strikeout ability have failed to return value:
Dallas Keuchel owns the top Vegas data on the slate, leading all pitchers with a 3.1-run opponent implied total and -295 moneyline odds. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have been strong options:
He’s also one of the top pitching values on DraftKings, where his Bargain Rating of 51% leads all pitchers priced above $8,000. The Statcast data from his past two starts is also strong, particularly his average distance of 169 feet.
The big question with Keuchel is his strikeout upside against the Royals. He’s posted a strikeout rate of just 7.19 over the past 12 months, and their projected lineup has whiffed on just 21.7% of at-bats against lefties over the same time. He has a K Prediction of just 4.4, which could make him a GPP fade candidate.
Alex Wood gets to take on the New York Mets, who have been the worst team against left-handed pitching by a significant margin. They’ve posted a .280 wOBA and 25.6% strikeout rate, both of which are the second-worst marks in the league. His K Prediction of 7.0 ranks third, as does his opponent implied total of 3.6 runs.
Jon Gray might be the most intriguing value option. He’s pitching at home at Coors Field, which should theoretically hurt his value, but Gray has actually been better from a salary-adjusted perspective at home than on the road:
He has an awesome matchup today vs. the Marlins, whose projected lineup has posted a 27.9% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Gray’s K Prediction of 7.4 is tied for the top mark on the slate. His opponent implied team total of 4.7 runs likely makes him best suited for GPPs, but he has plenty of upside.
Fastballs
Jack Flaherty: He enters today’s contest vs. the Brewers in elite recent form, owning 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity and hard hit differentials of -21 feet, -6 mph, and -21 percentage points. He’s also displayed an awesome 9.56 K/9 over the past 12 months, and the projected Brewers lineup has struck out in 24.2% of at-bats against right-handers over the same time.
Mike Minor: He’s tied with Gray for the top K Prediction on the slate and priced at just $5,400 on DraftKings. Pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +1.13 and Upside Rating of 18%, which could give him some appeal for GPPs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top rated five-man stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
The Rockies are at Coors Field and lead all teams with an implied team total of 7.0 runs. That’s a massive number even for Coors. Only one team has had a higher mark this season. However, an implied total that large hasn’t led to outsized fantasy success. Rockies batters with implied totals of 5.5 to 6.5 have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.23 on DraftKings, but that number has dropped to +0.93 when they’ve been implied for 6.5+ runs. Additionally, their average ownership has increased from 10.8% to 16.4%, making them much less valuable in GPPs. With no true stud pitcher available to absorb ownership, the Rockies should be extremely chalky.
It’s easy to see their appeal. They’re taking on Marlins left-hander Wei-Yin Chen, who has pitched to a dreadful 5.91 ERA in 2018. He’s been especially poor against right-handed hitters, allowing a .386 wOBA, and the projected Rockies lineup contains just two lefties. D.J. LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story have historically crushed lefties, with each owning a wOBA of at least .402 and ISO of at least .256 over the past 12 months.
The Rockies also own the top four-man FanDuel stack, so let’s focus on the Houston Astros instead:
The Astros’ implied team total of 5.5 runs ranks third on the slate but is still massively lower than the Rockies’ total. Their ownership should be much more modest, especially for projected No. 7 hitter Marwin Gonzalez. They have an excellent matchup against Royals left-hander Danny Duffy, who has averaged a 5.55 ERA through his first 15 starts. He was roughed up by the Astros for six earned runs over six innings in his last appearance, and he’s allowed a dreadful 231-foot average distance over his past two starts.
Other Batters
Joc Peterson is expected to bat leadoff today against Mets right-hander Zach Wheeler, and Peterson has posted a .371 wOBA and .278 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months. He also enters today’s contest in elite recent Statcast form, owning a 270-foot distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 61% hard-hit rate over his past seven games. He’s one of the best values of the day on FanDuel at just $2,400 given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
The Atlanta Braves could be a bit overlooked but have an elite matchup against Orioles right-hander Alex Cobb, who has pitched to a 7.14 ERA in 2018. Dansby Swanson is projected to occupy the second spot in the lineup at just $3,500 on DraftKings and has posted excellent Statcast differentials over the past 15 days.
JD Martinez figures to take a backseat to the big Coors bats but has arguably as much upside as anyone against Mariners left-hander Wade LeBlanc. Martinez has destroyed lefties over the past 12 months, averaging a .424 wOBA and .320 ISO, and he’s posted a Plus/Minus of +3.64 against southpaws over the past two seasons.
Good luck, and make sure you check out The Action Network for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Coors Field
Photo credit: Ron Chenoy-USA Today Sports
