The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday offers a 15-game main slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
It’s an exciting slate when Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale are facing each other and among the top pitching options on the slate. Vegas is giving the slight edge to Cole: The Astros are -121 moneyline favorites, and the Red Sox are implied for a meager 3.4 runs. Even though the projected Red Sox lineup possesses a 21.7% strikeout rate against righties over the past year, Cole still owns a solid 7.4 K Prediction. Overall, Cole will have his work cut out for him, as Boston’s lineup has a .334 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months. Moreover, the Red Sox rank first in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against righties this season (FanGraphs). Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have been serviceable, but they own a Consistency Rating lower than 60% (per our Trends tool):
On the opposite side, we have the magnificent Sale, who (like Cole) faces a team that can rake. The projected Astros lineup owns a paltry 22.6% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months along with a solid .334 wOBA. Additionally, the Astros rank second in wRC+ against lefties this season. Sale owns a slate-high 8.6 K Prediction, but the Red Sox are slight underdogs (+112 moneyline odds). That said, the Astros’ 3.7-run implied total isn’t intimidating. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have been slightly less productive than those similar to Cole but with significantly less ownership:
In addition to having the superior K Prediction, Sale also has better recent Statcast data than Cole. While Sale sports an excellent average distance of 190 feet and an exit velocity of just 88 mph, Cole has an average distance of 223 feet and exit velocity of 90 mph.
Stephen Strasburg also has a tough matchup against the excellent Braves, whose projected lineup owns a paltry 23% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. Overall, Strasburg has a better matchup than the other top-tier pitchers have, as the Braves rank 15th in wRC+ against righties this season. The Nationals are -131 moneyline favorites, and the Braves have a subpar 3.8-run implied total. However, Strasburg does have worrisome Statcast data over the past 15 days with a 232-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and 48% hard-hit rate. Those numbers could spell trouble against a contact-oriented Braves team.
Values
Chris Stratton costs just $5,700 on DraftKings with a 69% Bargain Rating. He may be a necessary SP2 candidate for those who want to pay up for batters. His matchup against the Phillies is basically set as a pick’em (-102 moneyline odds), and Stratton owns a serviceable 6.5 K Prediction against a projected lineup with a high 26.9% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months.
James Tallion is sporting an 81% Bargain Rating on DraftKings with an excellent 7.8 K Prediction. He hasn’t been a safe pitcher, but he’s a viable SP2 with no clear-cut options after the top-priced pitchers. The Pirates are +119 moneyline dogs, but Tallion gets a favorable venue shift (Park Factor of 77), and his strikeout potential bolsters his floor. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, Vegas data, and Park Factors have historically been serviceable value plays on DraftKings:
Fastballs
Carlos Carrasco: He makes more sense on FanDuel, where he is considerably cheaper than the other top-priced options. Carrasco has an excellent 8.0 K Prediction against a projected Twins lineup with a 26.2% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. Further, Carrasco has historically dominated on the road:
Mike Leake: He could be considered a pure punt for $4,800 on DraftKings. He has almost zero upside (4.8 K Prediction), but he can pitch deep into games, and the Mariners are -133 moneyline favorites against a Rays team implied for just 3.8 runs. Additionally, Leake owns excellent Statcast data over the past 15 days with a 180-foot average distance and 89-mph exit velocity.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Brewers, who are implied for 4.9 runs:
The Brewers are set to take on White Sox pitcher Hector Santiago, who has some troublesome Statcast data over the past 15 days: He’s allowing a 245-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 45% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters with similar implied run totals facing pitchers with comparable Statcast data have averaged a +1.32 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Jesus Aguilar has crushed lefties over the past 12 months to the tune of a .394 wOBA and .286 isolated power (ISO). Additionally, Aguilar owns absurd Statcast data over the past 15 days with a 257-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity, and 54% hard-hit rate, all of which are positive differentials when compared to his 12-month averages. Lorenzo Cain has also smashed lefties over the past 12 months with a .461 wOBA and .274 ISO. With the exception of Domingo Santana, all of the stacked Brewers are on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO splits:
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the A’s, who are implied for a solid 4.7 runs:
Matt Olson will square off against Royals righty Ian Kennedy, who has an awful 1.46 WHIP and 1.89 HR/9 over the past 12 months. Olson owns an elite .414 wOBA and .347 ISO against righties over the past 12 months and is in excellent recent batted-ball form with a 226-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and 56% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball metrics and implied run totals (4.7) have averaged a +1.03 DraftKings Plus/Minus. In fact, this whole stack has shown an exorbitant amount of power against righties over the past 12 months:
Other Batters
While the Mets’ 4.1-run implied total is nothing to write home about, Brandon Nimmo is an interesting tournament play. He has been on fire of late, averaging a +5.85 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 60% Consistency over his past 10 games. Moreover, he’s on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits, owning an elite .409 wOBA and .218 ISO against righties over the past year. Tyler Chatwood is a ground-ball pitcher, and he’s struggled over his past few starts, allowing seven earned runs in 4.4 innings. Furthermore, Nimmo is drawing plenty of hard contact with his 48% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
After yesterday’s postponement, the Yankees will get their matchup against Andrew Cashner tonight. Some of the Yankees are on the negative side of their splits, but their 1-5 hitters have all shown extreme power against righties over the past 12 months:
Aaron Judge and Greg Bird are also drawing plenty of hard contact over the past 15 days with exit velocities exceeding 93-mph and hard-hit rates over 49%. Bird is an excellent value on FanDuel with a 93% Bargain Rating.
Jake Lamb may go overlooked tonight with Coors Field on the slate and the Yankees in a favorable spot. However, the Diamondbacks are also in a good spot with a 4.8-run implied total against Marlins pitcher Elieser Hernandez. Lamb has smashed righties over the past 12 months to the tune of a .354 wOBA and .215 ISO. Furthermore, he’s recently crushed the ball with a 230-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and 52% hard-hit rate. Lamb’s +42 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) also suggests that he’s hit the ball better than his short-term fantasy production indicates. Historically, hitters with comparable RBBLs, Statcast metrics, and implied run totals have averaged a +2.07 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Lastly, there’s Coors Field, where both the Dodgers and Rockies are implied for 5.8 runs. Coors sets up well for hitters, who tonight have a Park Factor of 100 and Weather rating of 97. Weather Ratings in the 90th percentile at Coors Field have historically yielded a massive +2.78 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 50.9% Consistency to opposing hitters. Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, Yasmani Grandal, David Dahl, and Matt Kemp all own favorable Statcast data and positive differentials over the past 15 days.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Chris Sale
Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
