The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday brings an excellent 14-game slate at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Pitchers
Studs
Friday is a great pitching slate, featuring four pitchers who eclipse the $10,000 mark on FanDuel:
Max Scherzer is in a superior spot against on an underwhelming projected Marlins lineup with a 26.3% strikeout rate and .283 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months. Additionally, Scherzer is in the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, where right-handers have an 84 Park Factor. Furthermore, he sports an excellent K Prediction of 11, the Nationals are massive -257 favorites, and the Marlins are implied for a minuscule 2.7 runs. Historically, Scherzer has smashed salary-based FanDuel expectations with comparable Vegas data (per our Trends tool):
Corey Kluber has plenty of upside in any given start, and he’s been extremely consistent this season:
Oddly, one of Kluber’s best games this year came against the Astros in his last start, when he struck out 10 batters. However, he still has a tough matchup, as the projected Astros lineup owns a low 16.6% strikeout rate and .347 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. With Scherzer and other high-end pitchers available, Kluber is an excellent tournament play, as he still checks in with a 7.4 K Prediction and could have reduced ownership. Additionally, Vegas is also backing the Indians as -142 moneyline favorites, and the Astros are implied for just 3.7 runs.
Noah Syndergaard gets a negative park shift at Miller Park (with a Park Factor of 44), and he’s not a big favorite (-127 moneyline) compared to the other top-priced pitching options, but Syndergaard is an excellent tournament play against the Brewers, who accumulate strikeout and whose projected lineup owns a .296 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. The Brew Crew is mediocre against righties, ranking 16th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) this season (FanGraphs). Syndergaard has elite recent batted-ball data with an average distance of 168 feet, exit velocity of 84 mph, and hard-hit rate of 22% over his past two starts. Pitchers with comparable batted-ball data have historically been solid investments:
Luis Severino is another top-priced pitcher in a tough matchup. The Angels are a contact-oriented team, ranking 10th in hard-contact rate (FanGraphs) this season. Their projected lineup boasts a 19.6% strikeout rate and .335 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. That said, Severino and the Yankees are -213 moneyline favorites, and the Angels are implied for just 3.4 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have been outstanding:
Values
Ross Stripling hasn’t pitched deep into some of his starts, but he’s been amazingly efficient, striking out 21 batters in 15.1 innings. Stripling gets an excellent matchup against a projected Padres lineup that owns a 31.1% strikeout rate and .277 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Additionally, the Padres are implied for a meager 3.2 runs, and the Dodgers are substantial -185 moneyline favorites. Stripling has amazing recent batted-ball data with his 187-foot average distance, 87-mph exit velocity, and absurd 10% hard-hit rate. He costs just $7,200 on DraftKings and $6,700 on FanDuel.
A punt option at $4,400 on DraftKings, Mike Minor boasts a 10.50 SO/9 over the past 12 months. While the Royals don’t strike out too often, Minor owns a respectable 6.9 K Prediction, and the Rangers are -144 favorites. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically averaged a +1.18 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Fastballs
James Paxton: He fits into the stud category on DraftKings, but he slightly cheaper on FanDuel, checking in at $9,700. Paxton boasts an excellent 7.5 K Prediction against a Twins team implied for just 3.2 runs. Furthermore, the Mariners are sizeable -185 moneyline favorites at home, where Paxton has a Park Fator of 72. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have historically averaged a +5.40 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Patrick Corbin: He’s an intriguing tournament play with an 8.6 K Prediction against a projected A’s lineup that owns a 28.4% strikeout rate against lefties over the past year. Given that the Diamondbacks are +123 road underdogs on a slate loaded with pitchers, Corbin should have almost no ownership.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man early-slate DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Yankees, who are implied for 5.6 runs:
The Yankees are set to take on Angles pitcher Andrew Heany, who has high strikeout potential (10.71 SO/9 over the past 12 months) but is also prone to the long ball (2.34 HR/9). Aaron Hicks is projected to hit from the leadoff spot, and he’s been reliable of late, averaging a +4.12 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 70% Consistency over his past 10 games. Hicks is also in great recent batted-ball form with a 95-mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin, and Giancarlo Stanton are on the positive side of their splits, and they each own elite wOBA and ISO numbers against lefties over the past 12 months:
The top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rockies, who have a slate-high implied total of 6.8 runs and Team Value Rating of 89:
The conditions tonight are perfect for hitters at Coors Field, where the Park Factor is 100 and Weather Rating is 94. When Coors Field has Weather Ratings within the 90th percentile, it’s historically been very gracious to hitters:
Overall, it’s a great spot for the Rockies against Reds pitcher Sal Romana, who has been throttled over his past two games, allowing 13 earned runs, a 94-mph exit velocity, and 46% hard-hit rate.
Other Batters
Joey Gallo will take on Royals pitcher Eric Skoglund, who doesn’t generate many strikeouts and gives up a fair amount of hard contact. Skoglund has allowed a 93-mph exit velocity and 37% hard-hit rate over his past two starts. Meanwhile, Gallo is sporting a 95-mph exit velocity and 40% hard-hit rate. He owns just a 30% Consistency Rating over his past 10 games, but his +32 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) suggests that he’s been unlucky. Hitters with comparable RBBLs and batted-ball metrics have historically averaged a +1.45 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Overall, it’s a solid spot for Gallo, as the Rangers are implied for 5.2 runs with a Weather Rating of 81.
If you’re in need of salary relief, Brad Miller is an option at just $2,300 on FanDuel and $3,200 on DraftKings. He and the Rays are implied for a stellar 4.7 runs against David Hess and the Orioles. Miller has been unlucky of late (+26 RBBL), but he’s in excellent recent batted-ball form with a 226-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 46% hard-hit rate. Hess has gotten rocked over his past two games with a 237-foot average distance and 92-mph exit velocity.
Several of the Red Sox are intriguing, given their implied total of 6.2 runs. Mitch Moreland has a .348 wOBA and .228 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, and J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts might have reduced ownership because of all the high-end pitchers and Coors batters on the slate. Boston’s 82 Team Value Rating is among the highest marks on the slate.
Rockies pitcher Jon Gray is above average, but the Reds are still at Coors Field and implied for 4.8 runs. Joey Votto has crushed righties over the past 12 months to the tune of a .437 wOBA and .214 ISO; Scooter Gennett, a .392 wOBA and .259 ISO. On top of that, Gray has allowed a .450 wOBA and .217 ISO to opposing hitters over the past 15 days.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Charlie Blackmon (19), DJ LeMahieu (9), Trevor Story (27), Nolan Arenado (28)
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
