The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s Showdown slate features the Houston Astros at the Atlanta Braves at 8:09 pm ET. We’ll be using the Player Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
Pitchers
The two pitchers on the mound today are:
- Max Fried (L)
- Jose Urquidy (R)
Max Fried is priced at $16,200 CPT and $10,800 UTIL. He has the highest projection on the slate with a whopping 10.25 projected Plus/Minus.
During the regular season, Fried had an 8.58 K/9, 2.23 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9 and a 3.31 FIP. The splits were fairly similar, but the strikeout rate was higher against left-handed batters. He did allow more home runs to lefties, though. The home/road splits were pretty similar as well, with more strikeouts on the road but a slightly higher HR/9 and FIP.
The Astros were 30th in strikeouts and fifth in ISO against left-handed pitching during the regular season. At home, they had the highest wRC+ and lowest strikeout rate.
Jose Urquidy is priced at $15,600 CPT and $10,400 UTIL. He’s a pitcher, so he has the second-highest projection on the slate. That said, it is well below Fried’s.
On the season, the K/9 was only 7.57, the BB/9 was 1.6, the HR/9 was 1.43 and the FIP was 4.14. He was much more effective against lefties than righties as the HR/9 was 0.88 higher against righties while the FIP was 1.11 more. He was also worse at home as the K/9 was 0.98 lower, the HR/9 was 0.3 higher, and the FIP was 0.54 higher.
The Braves were eighth in strikeouts and fourth in ISO against right-handed pitching. They were 11th in wRC+ on the road, fourth in ISO, and ninth in wOBA.
Hitters
Studs
Yordan Alvarez ($9,200) bats cleanup for the Astros and is their best power hitter. He hit 33 home runs while scoring 92 rusn and driving in 104 during the regular season. The slash was .277/.346/.531 with a .253 ISO. The strikeout rate was 24.2%. Against left-handed pitching, the slash was .283/.349/.532 with a .249 ISO. Fried has allowed more home runs to lefties this season.
Austin Riley ($8,000) mashed right-handed pitching this season. The slash was .312/.380/.560 with a .248 ISO. The strikeout rate was also lower by 3.6%. He will also bat cleanup and gets a great matchup as Urquidy has struggled against righties this season.
Adam Duvall ($7,200) also was much more successful against righties than lefties. The slash was .245/.291/.536 with a .292 ISO compared to .178/.254/.357 with a .178 ISO against lefties. I went over the struggles that Urquidy has had against righties in the pitching section. Duvall will likely bat sixth in the lineup.
Values and Punts
Eddie Rosario ($6,000) is how much? What’s a guy have to do to get some respect in these streets? All he’s done in these playoffs is hit three home runs, steal a base, and drive in 11. He’s only slashing .365/.511/.767 with a .302 ISO. Sure, during the regular season he hit 14 home runs and stole 11 bases with a .259/.305/.435 slash with a .177 ISO. The BABIP is also an unsustainable .500, so regression will come at some point, but it’s well within the range of outcomes that he stays hot for the rest of the World Series. He is just so dialed in right now that the price is way too cheap.
Jose Siri ($4,000) hasn’t been announced as a starter yet so keep abreast of the news. If he does start, he will likely bat toward the bottom of the order, but he’s had success in the few plate appearances he’s had this year. In 17 plate appearances, the slash is .333/412/.667 with a .333 ISO. He also had three stolen bases during the regular season. That said, he’s only received eight plate appearances in these playoffs.
Chas McCormick ($4,600) would likely start if Siri doesn’t. In 320 plate appearances during the regular season, he hit 14 home runs and stole four bases. The strikeout rate was high at 32.5%, though, but the ISO was a respectable .190. He’s received 26 plate appearances during the playoffs and slashed .273/.346/.273. Against left-handed pitching, the ISO is .256 compared to .165 against righties.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Photo Credit: Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
Pictured: Eddie Rosario
