After four months of unrelenting action, the college football season comes to an exciting conclusion on Monday night. The Michigan Wolverines are looking to put their stamp on a perfect season, entering the National Championship as -4.5 betting favorites over the Washington Huskies. Washington has proven naysayers wrong all season, maintaining its perfect record despite playing two of their last three as underdogs.
This article will discuss our favorite Michigan vs. Washington props on Sleeper Picks for Monday night’s National Championship bout.
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Sleeper Picks: Michigan-Washington Player Predictions
Michael Penix Jr. Less Than 293.5 Passing Yards
Opening line bettors got the best of this number, but there’s still value in taking the under on Michael Penix Jr.’s passing yards prop. Depending on where you shop, this total opened around 299.5, and there are a few valid reasons to account for the cratering number.
First, Penix’s prop came in overvalued after a pair of above-average performances. In the Pac-12 Championship Game, the Huskies quarterback threw for 319 passing yards on 27 completions. Even followed that up with an even more crooked number against the Texas Longhorns in the semifinals, completing 29-of-38 passes for 430 yards.
Both of those numbers are a deviation from what we had seen from Penix over the latter part of the campaign. The senior was held to 256 or fewer yards in three of his last four regular season games, throwing for an average of 238.5 passing yards per game.
Second, Michigan boasts one of the top defensive units in the country. Among FBS opponents, the Wolverines allowed the fewest pass yards per game, giving up an average of just 150.0. Included in that sample is a 116-yard effort from the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Rose Bowl.
Penix has his work cut out for him, and he faces the added pressure of replicating his past few performances. Early money has collapsed this total, but it still hasn’t fallen far enough. We’re betting Penix stays below 293.5 passing yards.
Sleeper Picks Payout: $1.81x
Rome Odunze Higher 89.5 Receiving Yards
There is a contrarian perspective with our next pick. Although we suspect Penix Jr. will have a hard time eclipsing his passing yards prop, most of those yards will run through Rome Odunze. Consequently, we’re backing the Huskies standout to surpass the 89.5 receiving yards needed to eclipse his prop.
Odunze has beasted his way through the campaign. The Las Vegas native has been an absolute workhorse for the Huskies, leading the team in receptions, receiving yards, and targets. Moreover, his accolades have moved him to the top of many national categories, shining a spotlight on his play-making abilities.
Washington has saddled Odunze with a more robust workload over the last month of the season. Over his last five outings, the junior is averaging 112.8 receiving yards per game on 6.2 catches. Those efforts have netted Odunze the 15th-most catches and second-most receiving yards in the country.
Penix Jr. has thrown Odunze’s way 49 times across the five-game sample, representing a 26.8% target share. The Huskies’ best chance of pulling off the upset comes through Odunze, and we expect him to be a primary target in the game-planing. We’re betting he eclipses his receiving yards prop on Monday.
Sleeper Picks Payout: $1.72x
Blake Corum Lower 101.5 Rushing Yards
Not to discount Michigan’s offense, but the Wolverines’ path to the title game was built on defense. Jim Harbaugh has his team playing a possession-driven brand of football, predicated on clock control and keeping opposing offenses off the field. Blake Corum has been central to this strategy, accumulating the 12th-most carries in the nation. Although he remains a high-volume running back, his efficiency has dipped over the past few games.
Corum enters the National Championship with a staggering 100.5 rushing yards total, a benchmark he’s reached just twice this season and only once since Week 3. Still, Michigan has turned to its primary back more frequently as the stakes get higher. Unfortunately for them, Corum hasn’t responded well to the increased pressure.
The Virginia native has totaled 85 carries over the past four contests, surpassing 19 rushing attempts in all but one of those contests. However, there’s an inverse relationship with Corum’s rushing yard totals. He’s failed to surpass 94 rushing yards in any one of those contests, averaging a paltry 3.7 yards per carry.
Washington has stacked up well against the run to end the season. They’ve held their last three opponents to an average of 122.7 yards per game, below their season-long average of 137.1.
The Wolverines will ask Corum to shoulder a heavy workload, but he doesn’t have the underlying metrics supporting such a high total. Look for him to come up short of 101.5 rushing yards versus the Huskies.
Sleeper Picks Payout: $1.78x
Colston Loveland Higher 35.5 Receiving Yards
Where the Huskies have been much less effective is defending the pass. Washington had one of the worst pass defenses in the country, ranking 121st in passing yards allowed against FBS opponents. They’ve been particularly bad at limiting tight ends, assuring Colston Loveland exceeds his modest total at NRG Stadium.
Loveland has taken a back seat in recent outings but has been an integral part of the Wolverines’ aerial assault throughout the campaign. The sophomore ranks second in yardage and third in targets and receptions, netting an average of 41.8 yards per game. Loveland is coming off two lackluster efforts, but he’ll have a lot more room to roam against the Huskies.
So far this season, Washington has given up 267.1 passing yards; however, that number has taken a substantial hit more recently. Their last three opponents have combined for 874 passing yards or 291.3 per game. Tight ends have accounted for 122 of those yards, with Ja’Tavion Sanders doing most of that damage in last week’s semifinal.
Michigan will exploit Washington’s biggest weakness, turning to their passing defense into Swiss cheese. The Huskies don’t have the manpower to slow down tight ends, and Loveland will be the beneficiary. The Wolverines tight end won’t face much resistance in going north of 35.5 receiving yards.
Sleeper Picks Payout: $1.79x
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