The PGA TOUR is on the move this week as the attention shifts from the Golden State to the Sunshine State. With the West Coast swing behind and the Florida swing starting next week, this week’s event is a little stuck in the middle. However, the tournament still offers plenty of drama in low-scoring conditions. It’s the PGA TOUR’s first international stop in the 2024 season as the pros head south to Mexico and this year’s version of the Mexico Open at Vidanta.
After a signature event last week and with big events coming up in the run-up to the Masters, the Mexico Open has trouble drawing the biggest names on the PGA TOUR. However, it’s still always a fun and compelling event. Last year, Tony Finau won the event by holding off Jon Rahm. While Rahm can’t return, Finau will return and is the favorite, according to Vegas. The other three players from the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings in the field this week are Nicolai Hojgaard, Emiliano Grillo, and Ryan Fox.
This week also provides an opportunity for extra players from Mexico and Latin America to join the field. Sponsors’ exemptions for this week include Cristobal Del Solar, who recently shot a 57 at the Korn Ferry Tour’s Astara Golf Championship, Padraig Harrington, and Brazilian sensation Fred Biondi.
After some unique formats over the last few tournaments, this week is back to the standard full-field event with 132 golfers in the field. The cut will take place after the second round and reduce the field to the top 65 (including ties) for the final two rounds over the weekend.
The course the pros will take on is the Vidanta Vallarta Course, which will be hosting this event for the third straight year. Greg Norman originally designed the par-71 course that features paspalum grass on the green and the fairways. The layout winds along the picturesque Ameca River, providing stunning views of the Sierra Madre mountains from every hole. The course features large landing areas for drives with oversized, undulating greens surrounded by plenty of deep bunkers. The course plays very long but has yielded low scores in the last two years. Finau won with a -24 score last year in what turned into a tropical, resort-style birdie fest.
In this post each week, we’ll focus on players who are strong GPP options. That means they have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding this kind of high-leverage play is critical for GPP success. The picks here go against the grain to take advantage of players who may be overlooked and under-owned.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that can lead to large-field success.
GPP contests are contests that have large numbers of entries and pay out huge prizes to the top few percent. This week, the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $500K Pitch + Putt, which awards $100,000 to first place.
The players highlighted below will be good options in all formats if they deliver, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being safe plays. Consistency and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important as in GPP tournaments. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Thorbjorn Olesen $10,300
The Thunderbear is making his 2024 PGA TOUR debut this week at the Mexico Open, and he brings some great leverage since he comes in with such a big salary. Understandably, Finau and Hojgaard are drawing plenty of deserved attention. Finau has an ownership projection of over 40%, while Hojgaard’s projection has risen to over 25% after some early-week hype. Both those stars are great plays, but Olesen also comes in hot with only an ownership projection of around 10%.
Olesen has the highest SimLeverage of the five players with a salary of over $10,000. He matches six Pro Trends, which is the second-most of all players in the field, behind only Finau.
Olesen isn’t necessarily a newcomer after playing 62 PGA TOUR events in his career, but he is playing some of the best golf of his career. The 34-year-old has been tearing it up the DP World Tour. He finished in the top 26 in eight straight events dating back to last fall, including five top 10s. In his last start, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship to claim his eighth career DP World Tour victory by a convincing six-shot victory with a closing-round 67 to get all the way to -27.
The Dane has eight PGA TOUR top 10s throughout his career, but the most recent came back in October of 2018. He’s a high-risk play but has proven that he can dominate a tournament and rise to the challenge in the biggest moments. I like him as a high-risk, high-ceiling pivot play at the top of your lineup this week.
Eric Van Rooyen $9,500
There are some great options in the $9,000s, and you can build a strong lineup without any of the players with salaries over $10,000. Of the bunch, EVR stands out with a very low ownership projection of under 8%. That ownership projection helps him to the top SimLeverage in the entire field. He also has the fourth-highest Perfect% in the field.
Van Rooyen tied for 33rd last year in this event after sitting in second place after each of the first two rounds. He will look for a better finish this year as he comes in with outstanding form. Following last year’s TOUR Championship in August, the 33-year-old South African exceeded salary-based expectations in 11 straight DFS events with eight top 25s. That impressive run ended at the WM Phoenix Open before he took last week off.
As part of that impressive run, Van Rooyen claimed his second career PGA TOUR victory. It also came in Mexico at the 2023 World Wide Technology Championship at El Cardonal. While that course is on the other side of the country, there are similarities to the field and the coastal layout that should play to van Rooyen’s strengths.
Now in beta testing: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Mark Hubbard $9,000
Hubbard is also in prime position this week, and I’m surprised to find his ownership projection under 10%. My only explanation is that there are several popular plays with salaries just above and below Hubbard’s.
Of all the players with salaries of $9,000 or less, Hubbard has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections by a wide margin. He also has the best odds of a top-10 finish among players in that price range, according to Vegas. Of all the players in the field, he also has the third-highest SimLeverage and the sixth-highest Perfect%.
Hubbard has played this event both years it has been held at this course, finishing T51 in 2022 and T18 last year. He comes into this year’s event on a nice run to start 2024. He has made the cut in all five of his events this year, with a T4 at Pebble Beach as his top result. Like EVR, he didn’t play last week’s Genesis Invitational but will look to resume his good form this week in Mexico.
Austin Eckroat $8,000
Eckroat had an up-and-down rookie season on the PGA TOUR, but he offers solid leverage at the bottom of the mid-priced options and has had success on this course and similar tracks in the past. He has the highest ceiling projection of all players priced under $8,500 and the best Projected Plus/Minus of all players priced at $7,500 or higher.
Before missing the cut at the WM Phoenix Open, Eckroat had exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight tournaments, including an impressive top 10 at The RSM Classic and a top 25 at The American Express.
Last year, he finished T49 at the Mexico Open, where his strong tee to green game should give him a chance to shine again this week. He can be very streaky with the putter, which is why his results vary so widely. If he can get the flat stick to cooperate this week, his upside makes him a great option at $8,000.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Vincent Norrman $7,600
In shallower fields like this, values and sleepers are where things get really fun. All come with major risk factors, but some options also bring good upside. While Norrman hasn’t had a strong start to 2024, he finished 2023 on a great run and should benefit from a return to this type of layout.
Norrman missed the cut at the Sony Open and the Phoenix Open but played the weekend at the Farmers Insurance Open in between. Last fall, he won the Irish Open on the DP World Tour after winning the Barbasol Championship for his first PGA TOUR win in July. After that second victory, the 26-year-old from Sweden added top-20 finishes at the BMW PGA Championship and the Nedbank Golf Challenge to close out the year.
He finished in the top 20 last year at this course, and he is a great fit for venues like this that are more open and favor long-hitters off the tee. Norrman has the fifth-highest SimLeverage in the field and the highest of all players, priced between $7,000 and $9,000. He has the fourth-highest Perfect% of options under $8,000 and only a tiny ownership projection under 3%.
Greyson Sigg $7,200
Like Norrman and Eckroat, Sigg is a strong player tee to green who can be volatile at times with the putter and struggle around the green. He has flashed a high ceiling, though, at several recent events and is a strong play at this salary. Sigg has the second-highest ceiling projection of players with salaries under $7,500 and the fifth-highest Perfect% in that salary range.
Before missing the cut in his last two events on tough courses in strong fields, Sigg had exceeded salary-based expectations in six of eight tournaments. The highlight of that run was a top 10 at the RSM Classic, and he had four top-28 finishes during that eight-tournament stretch.
Sigg qualified for the weekend in each of the two years this event has been played at Vidanta with a T33 and a T18. He seems to be set up for a strong bounce-back week in Mexico and is a great play at this price.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Andrew Novak $7,000
Novak arrives in Mexico coming off a strong top 10 at the WM Phoenix Open. However, that result was his first made cut in four appearances this year. He also has a strong course history at this venue, with two made cuts, including a T15 in his two appearances.
It’s easy to see why his ownership is a little bit higher than many in this price range, but since it’s still under 9%, it isn’t too bad for such a strong bargain play with good form and the ability to excel at this event.
Carl Yuan $6,200
If you’re looking for an ultra-cheap flier with upside this week, Yuan is an intriguing play. Unlike Novak, he doesn’t come in hot after missing two cuts and withdrawing from the Phoenix Open. However, he is in the field this week after taking last week off, and he could be a great play if he’s past the neck injury that caused him to pull out in Phoenix.
Yuan seems to play better in warm climates. He finished in the top five at the Sony Open in Hawaii in January and in the top five at the Bermuda Championship in November. He also had a top 10 finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship as part of a strong FedExCup Fall.
Last year at this event, Yuan tied for 55th, which makes sense since he fits the profile of a bomber off the tee who can be streaky with a putter. If he can re-discover his form and show he’s healthy, he’ll end up being a steal in his return to Vidanta this year.
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