The PGA TOUR heads to beautiful Vallarta, Mexico to play the first ever Mexico Open at Vidanta.
The Greg Norman-designed Vidanta Vallarta is a par 71 measuring 7,456 yards. The course was recently extended by over 250 yards to make it PGA TOUR ready, and there were nine new tee boxes and 106 new bunkers added to stiffen the test for the best players in the world. The course features three par 5s and the par-4 7th will be driveable for the longer hitters, but golfers will have to risk-taking on some water if they want to go for it.
The field this week will consist of 153 players, including a PGA TOUR record of ten Mexican golfers in the field, including Carlos Ortiz, who is sponsored by Vidanta. Some other notables teeing it up this week include Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, Daniel Berger, Tony Finau, Abraham Ancer, Kevin Na, and Gary Woodland.
For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Driving Distance
At almost 7,500 yards, Vidanta Villarta is a long par 71. The rough shouldn’t be much of a factor this week, which gives the advantage to the long hitters in the field.
- High-end target: Jon Rahm — $11,300 (3rd in Driving Distance)
- Mid-range target: Cameron Champ— $9,400 (1st in Driving Distance)
- Value target: Joseph Bramlett— $7,100 (5th in Driving Distance)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
With the course playing long and greens likely being receptive, elite ball-strikers should have an advantage more so than a good short game and strong putting.
- High-end target: Jon Rahm — $11,300 (1st Strokes Gained: Ball Striking)
- Mid-range target: Aaron Wise— $9,500 (10th Strokes Gained: Ball Striking)
- Value target: Paul Barjon — $6,500 (13th Strokes Gained: Ball Striking)
Strokes Gained: Total Paspalum
We’ve seen similar players pop up time and time again on courses that feature paspalum. It’s a surface that players don’t see very often on TOUR, and positive experience on the grass type should provide a major advantage in Mexico this week.
- High-end target: Abraham Ancer— $10,300 (2nd Strokes Gained: Paspalum)
- Mid-range target: Anirban Lahiri— $7,900 (5th Strokes Gained: Paspalum)
- Value target: Danny Lee— $7,100 (1st Strokes Gained: Paspalum)
Total Strokes Gained in Windy Conditions
I spoke with Tournament Executive Director Rodrigo Suarez Gilly this week, who said he expects the afternoons to get extremely windy all week. This will provide golfers who excel in the wind a major advantage.
- High-end target: Jon Rahm— $11,300 (1st Strokes Gained: Total in Windy Conditions)
- Mid-range target: Patrick Rodgers— $7,600 (3rd Strokes Gained: Total in Windy Conditions)
- Value target: Camilo Villegas— $6,600 (8th Strokes Gained: Total in Windy Conditions)
Opportunities Gained
For what it’s worth, Suarez Gilly predicted the winning score to be in the range of -18 this week. Golfers will have to make plenty of birdies to keep up, and paspalum greens typically help out golfers who aren’t the best putters. Therefore, it makes sense to target the players who give themselves the most opportunities from 15 feet and in.
- High-end target: Jon Rahm — $11,300 (1st in Opportunities Gained)
- Mid-range target: Russell Knox— $9,200 (5th in Opportunities Gained)
- Value target: Paul Barjon — $6,500 (10th in Opportunities Gained)
