On Saturday (8/26), Floyd Mayweather is set to fight Conor McGregor in one of the biggest sporting spectacles of the year. Some places in Las Vegas estimate up to $140 million will be wagered on this fight, which would shatter the previous boxing record of $70 million from the Mayweather-Pacquiao bout in May 2015. The fight is also expected to challenge the previous Pay Per View record of $455 million in revenue; the current ESPN estimate is $475 million.
With all that money changing hands, why not get in on the action? Between the sportsbooks and the innovative contests at Boom Fantasy, there are numerous ways to find positive expected value. If you want to experience the Mayweather-McGregor fight from a fantasy sports perspective, be sure to sign up for Boom Fantasy,
In this piece, I’ll look briefly at the Vegas action on the fight and then break down the contest available in the lobby at Boom Fantasy.
The Moneyline
Mayweather has historically been a large favorite, owning moneyline odds of at least -500 in six of his last eight fights, which were against some great fighters with strong records when they faced him:
- Manny Pacquiao: 57-5-2
- Canelo Alvarez: 42-0-1
- Marcos Maidana: 35-3
Given Mayweather’s past odds, logic would dictate that he would be a massive favorite against someone making his professional boxing debut.
That was initially the case. Mayweather opened as a -2,250 favorite; McGregor, a +950 underdog. The public, however, has pounded McGregor in the lead up to the fight, resulting in Mayweather’s odds dropping all the way to -400 at the time of writing. While the public continues to love the underdog — 92 percent of all bets have been wagered on the Irish MMA star — the professional bettors are seeing TONS of value with the favorite:
Some calling Mayweather BEST BET in Vegas history!
Floyd's fights since 2005: avg favorite of -740
Vs. 1st time boxer McGregor only -600 fav— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) August 2, 2017
The average Mayweather bet has been approximately 15 times larger than the average McGregor bet; the sharp money is on Money. Still, the large odds on McGregor leave Vegas vulnerable given the sheer volume of tickets on the underdog. If he can pull of the upset, Vegas will take a beating. That said, Mayweather is reportedly considering wagering $5 million on himself.
If Mayweather loses, will there be a second fight? Right now the Vegas odds on a rematch in 2018 are currently -900 for “No.”
Boom Fantasy
The games at Boom Fantasy feature different questions pertaining to the fight, with each answer offering different odds depending on their likelihood. Some of these questions are difficult to handicap due to McGregor’s lack of boxing history. Luckily, we can rely on Mayweather’s history and the prop market to analyze some of these questions.
Question 1: Which boxer will throw more punches in Round 1?
Mayweather is a solid favorite in this category, offering only +2,100 points compared to +7,900 for McGregor. Although it’s possible that Mayweather could look to ease into the fight — Matt Brown talks about this possibility on our special Daily Fantasy Flex pod covering the fight — Mayweather has historically come out strong in the first round, throwing and landing more punches than his opponent in four of his last five fights. McGregor is an aggressive fighter, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him try to ease into the fight and not leave himself vulnerable for an embarrassing early knockout. The public sentiment is that McGregor needs to go for the win early, so taking Mayweather for Question 1 might be a data-based way to be contrarian.
Question 2: Which boxer will land more power punches in Round 1?
Mayweather is a solid favorite again, as this question lends itself to Mayweather’s strengths as a boxer. He’s an all-time great defensive fighter, and even great boxers have historically struggled with landing meaningful shots against him early in fights. Maidana landed 25 power punches in Round 1 of their first fight, but he threw 100 punches in that round and was active for the duration of the match. In his other fights, Mayweather has been difficult to tag in the first round:
- Andre Berto: 16 total punches landed through four rounds. (The full round-by-round data for this fight is unavailable.)
- Pacquiao: Two power punches landed in Round 1.
- Maidana (second fight): Two power punches landed in Round 1
- Alvarez: One power punch landed in Round 1
Barring a barrage of early activity from McGregor, his total is likely to fall in line with what we’ve seen from Mayweather’s previous opponents. Vegas agrees: McGregor has -155 odds to land fewer than 7.5 punches in every round. McGregor also owns +450 odds not to land a single punch in Round 1, which seems both ridiculous and possible given his lack of experience and Mayweather’s historical defensive dominance. It would be a major upset for Mayweather to lose this category.
Question 3: Which boxer will land more punches during the fight?
This seems like another layup for Mayweather. In his five previous fights he’s limited his opponents to an average of 126 landed punches and a success rate of just 21.2 percent. Mayweather meanwhile has landed an average of 201.6 punches per fight while finding success on 48.4 percent of his punches. Vegas gives him -175 odds of landing over 100.5 punches; McGregor -375 odds of landing under 49.5 punches. There’s a legitimate chance Mayweather could land double or triple the number of punches depending on how long the fight lasts.
Question 4: How many jabs will Conor McGregor land during the fight?
This question features four potential answers:
- 0-11
- 12-19
- 20-28
- 29-plus
The last option offers the best payout, but the best combination of payout and probability likely belongs to the first option. Pacquiao landed just 18 jabs in his fight with Mayweather; Maidana, 93 jabs over two fights; Alvarez, 44 jabs over a full 12-round fight. McGregor is currently -200 to land fewer than 39.5 total punches, so expecting him to land fewer than 12 jabs is reasonable. Given that the 0-11 category offers a bigger payout than either the 12-19 or 20-28 category, this question offers the opportunity to go against the crowd and accrue significant points.
Question 5: How many jabs will Floyd Mayweather land during the fight?
For Mayweather, the jabs categories are significantly higher:
- 0-41
- 42-60
- 61-79
- 80-plus
This question requires us to consider how long the fight will last. Mayweather has averaged 81 successful jabs over his last five fights, but those all went the full 12 rounds. Vegas is currently offering -375 odds that this fight won’t go the distance. If that happens, Mayweather’s jab count will be limited. It seems like a lock, however, that he’ll land at least 41, and it also seems like the 80-plus mark doesn’t give Mayweather a wealth of wiggle room considering that 81 is his per-fight number in recent 12-round bouts. If you’re planning on multi entering this contest — you can submit up to six entries in the big $25 contest — it might make sense to split your exposure between the 42-60 and 61-79 options.
Question 6: Which of these MLB players will record the most hits on Sunday (8/27): Bryce Harper, Starlin Castro, Eric Hosmer, Robinson Cano
This question doesn’t pertain to the fight, but you can use the FantasyLabs Tools and Models to check out pitching matchups, recent form, and weather conditions on Saturday. From a game theory perspective, it might make sense to roster the player with the biggest potential payout in Robinson Cano. Baseball has a lot of variance, and any player can out-hit any other player on any given day.
Question 7: How many total power punches will Conor McGregor land during the fight?
This question and the next both require exact answers, with points rewarded depending on how close you come to the exact total. These questions will likely be what separates the winners from the field. The default answer for McGregor is 77 power punches, which seems high given how pessimistic Vegas is regarding his total punch count. Prior Mayweather opponents have landed anywhere between 44 and 185 power punches over his last five contests, with most settling in the 60-80 range. Again, those fights all went the distance. Answering this question requires you to predict the length of the fight. I expect 15-25 power punches to go with the 0-11 jabs. Regardless, you should be sure that your answers to these questions are consistent with each other and how you expect the fight to unfold. For instance, it probably doesn’t make sense to pick a low answer to this question if you’re going to bet on McGregor landing a lot of jabs.
Question 8: How many total power punches will Floyd Mayweather land during the fight?
This may be the most difficult question to handicap in the contest. Mayweather has landed anywhere from 81 to 178 power punches over his last five fights, and they have made up anywhere from 48 to 77 percent of his punch arsenal. There are also fewer props regarding Mayweather’s total punch output, making it tougher to pin down how many punches Vegas expects him to throw. It’s a solid possibility that Mayweather will lean heavier than usual on his power punches as this fight wears on given his opponent’s lack of boxing experience. Given that I expect a mid-fight stoppage — under 8.5 rounds currently has -135 odds; under 9.5, -170 — I project Floyd to land somewhere between 80 and 100 power punches. The default answer is currently set to 96, so you might want to avoid that number. Also your answer is likelier to be unique if you avoid round numbers like 90 and 100.
Good luck and enjoy the fight!
Boom Fantasy
To play in the Mayweather-McGregor fantasy contest analyzed in this article, be sure to sign up for Boom Fantasy,
