Currently at the bottom of a surprisingly mediocre AL East, the Red Sox have certainly been weighed down by their patchwork pitching staff in 2015. I think their record, coupled with the offseason expectations placed on the Red Sox, have cast a shadow over an offense that DFS-wise has been pretty serviceable. Outside of a month-long Cinco de Mayo hangover, the Red Sox have been in the upper half of the league in terms of run scored. Here’s the offense’s rank by month in 2015:
| Month | Offense Rank (Runs Scored) |
| April | 3 |
| May | 30 |
| June | 7 |
| July | 15 |
Fantasy Labs agrees it was a May to forget for Red Sox bats:
Excluding May, the Red Sox check in at a decent +0.37 in collective Plus/Minus, which puts them in the upper-third of the league in that category. Looking at a couple more splits on a team level, Red Sox bats have had trouble finding production against divisional opponents in a division that is somewhat notorious for offensive slugfests:
Vegas has been a very important predictor this season for the Red Sox. Look at the difference between the Plus/Minus when Vegas projects Boston to score fewer than four runs versus when they are projected to score over four runs. You can add or subtract 0.7 points (DraftKings) per batter per game depending on whether or not Vegas likes the Sox that night!
| Split | Plus/Minus |
| Vegas Runs Under 4 | -0.52 |
| Vegas Ryns Over 4 | +0.17 |
The Red Sox split between May and their production in April, June, July has been primarily driven by the center of their order. Take a look at the Plus/Minus of Boston’s two through five hitters broken down by month.
For most teams, production from the middle of the order is probably a solid indicator for overall team success, but it’s REALLY been the case for the Red Sox this year. Here’s how the bottom of their order has performed. Even solid hitters like Brock Holt and Mookie Betts can’t escape the stench:
In terms of stacking, if we can throw out the month of May, the Red Sox have been one of the better teams at hitting righties in the league. Surrounding David Ortiz, who has always been one of the better righty hitters in the league, it helps that the Red Sox have a bunch of righty bats that are capable hitters against righty pitching. Betts, Pedroia, and Hanley all fall in the .350 to .380 wOBA range over the last year versus righties and have some power to boot.
In 2015, only four offenses have had worse months by Plus/Minus than the Red Sox had in May (White Sox in April, Mariners in June, Athletics & Reds in July). This has really skewed their season long statistics, and rightfully so – they were very bad for an extended period of time. In DFS, though, we have to be more able to put together the best teams for right now, and throwing out the month of May for the Sox casts several of their bats as useful plays.
