NBA Breakdown (Tue. 5/8): Which Players Are Most Valuable When There’s Risk of a Blowout?

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.

Tuesday features a two-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.

Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets (-12) | O/U: 207.5

8 p.m. ET | TNT

Rockets (109.75 implied points)

Like the late game between the Warriors and Pelicans, Rockets-Jazz has a double-digit spread, which means we have to account for the possibility of a blowout. How have Rockets players historically performed in daily fantasy when the team has been a double-digit home favorite? I used our NBA Trends tool to find out:

James Harden has scored by far the most fantasy points on the team, and Clint Capela has exceed salary-based expectations the most, which is pretty much how things in this series have gone as well. Harden and Capela rank 1-2 in our NBA Models in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, but are priced more appropriately on FanDuel and fall into the middle of the pack there. Both players have a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, which has historically produced good value for players priced $7,000 and above:

Chris Paul is priced at $7,600 on DraftKings and has a 99% Bargain Rating for that site as well. He’s been priced within $500 of that for less than half of his games this season, but he’s performed well in those situations from a value perspective:

Paul and Harden have the strongest negative correlation on the Rockets, and that has also played out during this series. Paul’s biggest game came in Game 4 with 58.5 DraftKings points, but that was a game in which Harden managed only 38.0.

Thanks to a $4,400 price tag on FanDuel, P.J. Tucker is the highest-rated Rocket in our Models for that site. On DraftKings, Tucker owns the top Projected Plus/Minus of any player $5,500 and below. Tucker is a gritty dude whose impact doesn’t always show up on the stat sheet, but he’s playing 32.0 minutes per game in this series, which even at his usual 0.60 fantasy points per minute is enough to hit value given his modest cost. Luc Mbah a Moute is like a poor man’s version of Tucker in that he posts similar per-minute production but is playing just 18.7 minutes per game in the series.

Wings Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon have been playing 31.4 and 30.4 minutes per game in this series and are both in play in tournaments. Gordon’s main role on this team is as the secondary ball-handler whenever Harden or Paul is out of the game, but his playoff usage rate (21.2%) still dwarfs Ariza’s (12.0%). Gordon carries the higher projected ceiling and higher salary of the two, thought it’s worth noting that Ariza has hit value more consistently this season when the Rockets have been a double-digit favorite at home. Gordon is of the most use on FanDuel, where he’s the only shooting guard under $6,700 projected for 30-plus minutes, and no shooting guards priced below him are projected for even 20 minutes.

Gerald Green has played 15.0 minutes per game over the past two and would likely be the biggest beneficiary of a blowout. Green is shooting 41.7% from 3 in this series, and his ability to get hot from distance gives him the upside to post well over one fantasy point per minute from time to time. Nene can do the same via scoring and rebounding from the center position, while it’s unclear how much time, if any, Ryan Anderson and Joe Johnson will get.

Jazz (97.75 implied points)

Donovan Mitchell recorded his most points in the series in Game 4 with 25, but he again failed to shoot a high percentage, going 8-of-24 (33.3%) following efforts of 9-of-22 (40.9%) in Game 1, 6-of-22 (28.5%) in Game 2, and 4-of-16 (25.0%) in Game 3. His struggles on offense combined with the risk of him getting into foul trouble — he’s averaging 5.0 per game over his past three games — take him out of cash-game consideration. As far as tournaments go, Mitchell was among the lowest-owned players in his salary range on both sites on Sunday’s slate, per our Ownership Dashboard, though that may spike a bit Tuesday after his solid showing in Game 4.

Houston’s collection of shooters, spacers, and switchers has marginalized Derrick Favors in this series. Favors has scored in single figures in 3-of-4 games and has yet to top three rebounds in a game. The two-man combo of Favors and Rudy Gobert has played 30 minutes together in this series and owns a ghastly -47.0 Net Rating to show for it. Head coach Quin Snyder installed Favors as the backup center last game, seemingly in response to Favors’ ankle injury, but it would likely take Gobert being in foul trouble to propel Favors’ minutes back anywhere close to the 28.0 per game he averaged during the regular season.

Gobert hasn’t had quite as rough of a go of it as Favors in this series, but examining Gobert’s game logs against Houston this season shows a player with capped upside relative to his salary:

Gobert’s propensity to put up okay-but-not-great numbers against Houston is more of an issue on FanDuel because of his $7,800 salary there. On DraftKings, he’s hit value over 70% of the time when priced within $400 of his current salary of $6,400:

Gobert’s Net Rating with Jae Crowder this series is a -16.7, but that’s still 30 points per 100 possessions better than Gobert-Favors. Crowder has averaged 31.3 minutes per game in the series and has the top Projected Plus/Minus of the team on FanDuel, where his $5,000 salary is $100 cheaper than on DraftKings despite its lower cap.

When Ricky Rubio, who’s been ruled out with a hamstring injury, has been off the floor this postseason, Joe Ingles has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute compared to 0.67 with him on, per our NBA On/Off tool. Ingles is averaging 34.7 minutes per game in the series, second only to Mitchell, and has topped 30 fantasy points in 3-of-4 games.

Royce O’Neale, Raul Neto, and Alec Burks all benefit from Rubio’s injury, as well as that of Dante Exum, who’s also been ruled out with a hamstring injury. O’Neale is averaging 28.4 minutes per game in the series, but he’s yet to top 25 fantasy points in a game. Neto logged 18 minutes to Burks’ nine in Game 4, but Burks’ ability to score gives him the highest projected ceiling of the three.

New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors (-11.5) | O/U: 227

10:30 p.m. ET | TNT

Warriors (119.25 implied points)

The Warriors don’t have a starter that’s outperformed expectations when his team is a double-digit favorite at home as much as Capela has for the Rockets, but Stephen Curry has exceeded value on DraftKings 59% of the time in 22 such games, and Draymond Green has done so 55% of the time in 27 such games:

Green was also a monster in the two home games of this series, posting 62.5 and 56.8 FanDuel points in Games 1 and 2. Curry has that same kind of scoring potential but has been limited to 29.2 minutes per game of this series as he rounds back into form following his knee injury. He did play a series-high 32 minutes in Game 4, however, and has massive upside in the event this game stays close enough for him to play another 30-plus minutes. Curry and Paul are projected neck-and-neck on FanDuel, but Curry’s matchup against the fast-paced Pelicans is better for DFS, as his Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.13 compared to Paul’s +0.89 illustrates.

Kevin Durant came out and shot a series-high 27 times in Game 4 after Draymond sent him a late-night text urging him to be more aggressive. Durant’s been inconsistent when the Warriors have been large favorites, but he still has tournament-winning upside. He’s topped 50 FanDuel points in this series in 3-of-4 games.

Klay Thompson has been hit-or-miss in this series, but on this slate he has a top-two Projected Plus/Minus among shooting guards on both sites.

Andre Iguodala and Kevon Looney are the only other Warriors outside the big four to average 20 minutes per game in this series, and that should remain the case with coach Steve Kerr settling on going small against the Pelicans. Our Models have both of them projected to exceed salary-based expectations on both sites.

David West has benefited the most when the Warriors have been double-digit favorites in the past, and Quinn Cook could potentially see extended run as well after logging at least 17 minutes in two of the four games in this series.

Pelicans (107.75 implied points)

Anthony Davis is back on the road, which means he’s back on the wrong side of his home/road splits:

An average of more than 50 fantasy points on the road is nothing to scoff at, but these historically haven’t been +EV situations to play Davis in cash games.

Jrue Holiday‘s DraftKings salary was decreased by $500 after Game 4 despite shooting 8-for-16 and turning in a solid 19 points and seven assists. Holiday is priced $500 less than Rajon Rondo on DraftKings but $800 more than Rondo on FanDuel. Our Models have Holiday with the higher projected floor, but Rondo’s penchant for triple-doubles gives him the higher ceiling. The sample of games in which the Pelicans have been double-digit road underdogs is too small to draw meaningful conclusions, but both Holiday and Rondo along with Nikola Mirotic have done well when the Pelicans have been a road underdog:

In this series, however, Mirotic has been contained by Iguodala and some of the Warriors’ other smaller players. He’s failed to punish them in the post and is averaging only 12.5 points per game on 38.6% shooting.

E’Twaun Moore continues to thrive against the Warriors, and his 15.5 points per game in the series is third on the team behind only Davis and Holiday. He’s played at least 35 minutes in each of the past three games, and he’s attempted more field goals in each game of this series than in any of the four games against Portland in the first round. He’s been a reliable value play of late and is projected with a positive Plus/Minus on both sites.

Ian Clark has played 21 minutes or more in 3-of-4 games this series, all three of which were decided by at least 19 points. If the game turns into a blowout, Clark would likely have the ball in his hands a lot in the fourth quarter; he’s launched 25 field-goal attempts over the past two games. Solomon Hill and Darius Miller remain in the rotation but score fewer fantasy points on a per-minute basis than Clark.

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.

Pictured above: James Harden (center)
Photo credit: Chris Nicoll – USA TODAY Sports