The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a two-game slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers (-6.5) | O/U: 204.5
6 p.m. ET | TNT
76ers (105.5 implied points)
The 76ers have fallen short of expectations all series, so it’s hard to know whether they’ll come out dejected and roll over in Game 4 or rally behind the home crowd and force a Game 5 in Boston. What we do know is that Joel Embiid has been better than Ben Simmons in this series (especially when it comes to dunking). The Celtics have prioritized getting back on defense and limiting Simmons’ ability to get downhill in transition. That in turn has resulted in the 76ers running more of their half-court offense, where Simmons is less useful due to his limited shooting range, and the offense has to run through Embiid on the block. Simmons is averaging just 0.88 DraftKings points per game in seven meetings with Boston this season, which is way below his 1.25 mark for the season overall. Embiid, meanwhile, is averaging 1.41 DraftKings points per minute against Boston in six games this season.
J.J. Redick and Dario Saric have both posted consistently mediocre fantasy production in this series. Both players are averaging 29.8 DraftKings points per game, with Redick posting a high of 34.25 and a low of 27.5 and Saric posting a high of 30.75 and a low of 28.75. Our NBA Models have Redick projected for a slightly higher floor and Saric for a slightly higher ceiling. (Our floor and ceiling projections represent a range a player is projected to fall outside of 15% of the time on average, using as their basis a PECOTA-style sim score model to analyze how comparable players have performed in the past.)
Robert Covington has been the boom-or-bust member of Philly’s starting five in this series, with one game of more than 40 fantasy points and two below 20. Covington has a 99% mark in our predictive Bargain Rating metric on DraftKings, where he’s $1,400 less than on FanDuel.
With Covington struggling to give Philadelphia much offensively, coach Brett Brown went with Marco Belinelli for 36 minutes in Game 3’s overtime loss while Covington played a series-low 25 minutes. A potential repeat of elevated playing time makes Belinelli a prime tournament target, and on FanDuel he’s viable in cash games as well at a salary of only $4,000, which is $700 less than on DraftKings despite its lower cap.
Ersan Ilyasova is cheaper on FanDuel ($4,400) than DraftKings ($5,000) as well, resulting in a positive Projected Plus/Minus on the former but a negative one on the latter.
T.J. McConnell has given Brown good minutes off the bench in the past two games and is averaging fantasy points per minute in the mid-0.90s over the past month, giving him some dart-throw punt appeal in tournaments.
Celtics (99 implied points)
The Celtics have consistently exceeded expectations in this series — one in which they’ve won as underdogs in every game, with more public money coming in on Philadelphia’s side in each game as well. The Celtics are underdogs again, and that could create some nice opportunities to roster them at depressed ownership in tournaments. If you take a look at our Ownership Dashboard from Saturday’s slate, for instance, you can see that, save for Marcus Morris, Celtics players were owned less on DraftKings than players in similar price ranges on other teams, especially at higher stakes:
That low ownership is likely due to Boston’s struggles over the course of the season on the road, where per our NBA Trends tool, Terry Rozier, Al Horford, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown all have negative average Plus/Minuses (as does every other active player on the team outside of Morris, Marcus Smart, and Greg Monroe).
Our Models have Rozier, Horford, Tatum, and Morris each projected within a point of their salary-based expectations, with Brown, Smart, and Aron Baynes not far off. Brown is expected to remain on a minutes restriction to preserve his injured hamstring, making him a better play at $5,400 on FanDuel than $5,700 on DraftKings. Baynes is averaging 24.6 minutes per game and is a viable option at center at a cost of under $4,000 on both sites.
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-5.5) | O/U: 213.5
8:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Cavaliers (109.5 implied points)
DraftKings has held LeBron James‘ salary steady at $12,100 for this game and each of the past two, but FanDuel has been increasing it by $500 after every game of this series, and it’s now up to a ridiculous $14,500 there. That gives James the top Projected Plus/Minus on the slate on DraftKings but a slightly negative one on FanDuel. Even so, LeBron still appears in the optimal lineup on FanDuel as of this writing. Save for a Game 6 blowout loss to the Pacers in which he didn’t play the fourth quarter, LeBron has scored at least 59.5 DraftKings points and 54.4 FanDuel points in every playoff game.
Kevin Love has finally realized he needs to stop third-wheeling when the team is pretty much all axle after LeBron, posting back-to-back games of 20-plus-point double-doubles. According to the Trends tool, Love’s average FanDuel Plus/Minus this season has been 4.2 points better at home than on the road. He owns one of the top Projected Plus/Minuses among players in his price range.
George Hill, Kyle Korver, and J.R. Smith are each projected to play over 30 minutes. Per the Trends tool, Korver has hit value on DraftKings the most consistently of the three when the Cavs have been home favorites, with his 55% rate besting that of Smith’s 45% and Hill’s 28%.
The best bet for minutes outside of those three is Jeff Green, who’s been in the 20-30 minute range in this series. He’s a punt option at $4,000 on both sites, though he’s strangely had much more favorable splits on the road than at home this season. Beyond Green, Tristan Thompson has played only 13-15 minutes in each of the past two games after playing 26 in Game 1, and Rodney Hood and Jordan Clarkson reportedly may be cut from the rotation in favor of Jose Calderon and Cedi Osman.
Raptors (104 implied points)
Life comes at you fast: Over the course of three games, the Raptors have gone from Eastern Conference favorite to a “that’s cool, but…” team. They finished as the No. 1 seed in the East, and that’s cool, but they’re down 3-0, and no NBA team has ever come back from that. DeMar DeRozan made real strides this year as far as eliminating some of the inefficient mid-range shots from his offensive game; that’s cool, but he got benched for the last 14 minutes of Game 3 with his team in the midst of a comeback. Dwane Casey is in the running for Coach of the Year; that’s cool, but now there are reports that he could end up getting fired. Toronto could win Game 4 and bring the series back to Toronto; that’s cool, but we’re all calling it LeBronto now.
The same is true for the Raptors in daily fantasy. Fred VanVleet was inserted into the starting lineup in Game 3 and played 33 minutes; that’s cool, but he produced his lowest fantasy output of the series in that game. Jonas Valanciunas averaged 18.5 points and 16.5 rebounds through Games 1 and 2; that’s cool, but he played fewer than 20 minutes in Game 3. Kyle Lowry has been incredibly consistent when Toronto has been a road underdog; that’s cool, but DeRozan has been the exact opposite:
Consistency has always been what sets those two apart. In the playoffs, Lowry has scored between 37.5 and 44.75 DraftKings points in each of his past eight games. Over that same span, DeRozan has games of 52.0, 49.75, and 45.25, but also ones of 22.5, 24.5, and 28.0. After scoring eight points on 3-of-12 shooting before spending the final 14 minutes of Game 3 on the bench, it’s likely that DeRozan will come out and be aggressive in Game 4 — and that’s cool, but ESPN reported that Cavs head coach Tyronn Lue’s plan in Game 3 was to force the ball out of DeRozan’s hands and give more space to Lowry. If that’s Lue’s plan again, DeRozan’s 38% Consistency rate on DraftKings is probably an accurate representation of his odds of hitting value, though he’s still a better play there at $7,500 than on FanDuel at $8,700.
Valanciunas has been monstrously productive in this series, averaging 1.44 DraftKings points per minute, and that’s cool, but his minutes have decreased in every game, from 35 to 27 to 20. His efficiency gives him legs as a tournament play on the chance that his minutes rise, but he’s too risky for cash games at a salary in the $7,000s.
Ibaka looked rejuvenated coming off the bench in Game 3, scoring more FanDuel points (32.1) than in Games 1 and 2 combined (23.1). The matchup hasn’t played out as well for Toronto power forwards as it looks on paper — Ibaka and Pascal Siakam have the top-two Opponent Plus/Minuses at the position on FanDuel — which renders them nothing more than tournament options.
OG Anunoby played a series-high 33 minutes in Game 3 and also played 30 in Game 1, which gives him punt-play appeal at $3,700 on FanDuel and $3,400 on DraftKings despite the fact that his fantasy-points-per-minute average on the year is in the 0.60s.
C.J. Miles played 34 minutes, with a chunk of them essentially coming at the expense of DeRozan. Even if his playing time drops back into its usual 20-minute range, his outlook would be better than that of Delon Wright, who got only eight minutes in Game 3. VanVleet, meanwhile, should be able to produce a better game than Game 3’s clunker and remains a solid value under $4,000 on both sites.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: DeMar DeRozan (10) and Kyle Lowry
Photo credit: Jeremy Brevard – USA TODAY Sports
