The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a two-game slate starting at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Golden State Warriors (-6) at New Orleans Pelicans | O/U: 231
3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
Warriors (118.5 implied points)
Game 3 of Warriors-Pelicans closed as the highest-total game in NBA playoff history, but despite the Warriors taking a 19-point loss and the game ultimately falling more than 10 points short of the closing total, the Warriors have an even higher implied team total in Game 4. The Warriors have been known to bounce back in these situations in the playoffs under head coach Steve Kerr, going 5-1 on the road in games following a road loss, per The Action Network’s Evan Abrams.
While recent history suggests a different outcome in this game, and sportsbooks seemingly expect one as well, the slate itself isn’t much different from Friday’s from a DFS perspective; this is the highest-total game on the slate by more than 20 points over Jazz-Rockets.
Per our NBA Trends tool, Draymond Green has the best average Plus/Minus on the Warriors this season in games with a total of 230 or more, but our NBA On/Off tool shows that he’s put up fewer fantasy points per minute than Stephen Curry or Kevin Durant this season when all three are on the floor together:
- Curry: 1.27 DraftKings, 1.22 FanDuel
- Durant: 1.19 DraftKings, 1.14 FanDuel
- Green: 1.07 DraftKings, 1.06 FanDuel
On DraftKings, Durant ($9,000) and Curry ($8,500) both have 99% Bargain Ratings, which for players priced $8,000 and above has historically produced better than a 60% Consistency rate:
(via FantasyLabs NBA Trends tool)
In terms of relative value on DraftKings, the same holds true Sunday as it did on Friday: Green is appropriately-priced, Durant is underpriced, and Curry is way underpriced. Green’s ability to fill up every column in the box score certainly gives him the upside to outscore Durant or Curry in DFS in any given game — he outscored Durant in Game 3, in fact — but it’s worth noting that Green also carried the highest ownership of the three in DraftKings’ biggest low- and high-stakes tournaments on Friday. (You can review player ownership across a variety of contests for any date using our NBA Ownership Dashboard.)
Given Durant’s lackluster (for him) Game 3 of 22 points, three rebounds, three assists, and two steals, the question of whether to pay up for him is more relevant on FanDuel, where he’s priced at $10,400 but owns a projected ceiling 20 points higher than any other small forward. Per the Trends tool, Durant has been solid but not spectacular against Golden State this season, netting a +0.97 average Plus/Minus and hitting value in 4-of-6 games, but the (small-sample) home/road splits don’t inspire confidence:
Given those splits and the presence on the slate of Anthony Davis, who has been insanely bankable at home, Durant is best suited as a tournament play who can maximize your ceiling at the small-forward spot.
Ahead of Game 3, Justin Phan made a great point about Klay Thompson, who was coming off a game in which he scored only 10 points:
Thompson, of course, rebounded with 26 points in Game 3, but his production still has room to grow: He shot 48.8% during the regular season but is shooting only 35.9% in this series.
Kevon Looney continues to play 22-24 minutes in this series thanks to the solid job he’s doing defending Anthony Davis. Looney’s averaged fantasy points per minute in the 0.80s on both sites over the past calendar year and is a good bet to hit value at a salary of only $3,200 on DraftKings and $3,600 on FanDuel.
Kerr’s starting lineup featuring traditional center JaVale McGee has produced a disastrous -44.9 Net Rating in nine minutes this series, so it’s possible we see more of Andre Iguodala after his minutes dropped from 34 in Game 2 to 28 in Game 3. Curry’s return has meant more minutes for Iguodala back as a small-ball 4, which coupled with Looney earning more minutes has squeezed the playing time of David West, who played a series-low 7:46 in Game 3.
Pelicans (112.5 implied points)
I mentioned Anthony Davis‘ bankability at home earlier; here are his home/road splits this season:
(FanDuel, via FantasyLabs NBA Trends tool)
The Plus/Minus splits are eye-popping, but if you’re a tournament player, the ownership is just as important — DFS users historically haven’t tended to roster Davis at home any more than they normally would on the road. That played out on Friday, as Davis’ ownership in FanDuel tournaments across four different stakes was between 20% and 23%, per the Ownership Dashboard.
Davis’ splits when his team is the underdog at home are even sillier:
(FanDuel, via FantasyLabs NBA Trends tool)
Davis leads all players with 13 predictive Pro Trends on FanDuel, and he’s tied for the lead with teammate Jrue Holiday with 14 on DraftKings.
These high-scoring, fast-paced games have been great for Holiday and Rajon Rondo, who have both topped 45 DraftKings points in each of the past two games. Holiday has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, while Rondo is a better value on FanDuel at $7,900 — $100 cheaper than his DraftKings salary despite its lower cap.
Nikola Mirotic has grabbed at least eight rebounds in every playoff game and can provide major upside if his 3s are falling. Our NBA Models have Mirotic projected to exceed salary-based expectations by more than three points on both sites.
E’Twaun Moore has now attempted more shots in each of the three games this series than he attempted in any of the five games in the first round. Although he’s averaging fantasy points per minute in the mid-0.60s over the past month on both sites, he’s played over 35 minutes in each of the past two games and is one of the top values under $5,000 on either site.
Ian Clark dropped in 18 points in 22 minutes in Game 3, the second time in three games he’s gotten over 20 minutes of playing time.
Houston Rockets (-5.5) at Utah Jazz | O/U: 209
8 p.m. ET | TNT
Rockets (107.25 implied points)
Per the Trends tool, James Harden‘s average Plus/Minus on the road this season is 3.3 points lower on FanDuel and 2.3 points lower on DraftKings than at home. He exceed salary-based expectations on DraftKings in Game 3 but came up just short on FanDuel. Given Harden’s road splits compared to Davis’ home splits, Harden is a risky pivot off Davis, though our Ownership Dashboard shows he was owned less than half as much as Davis in each site’s highest-stakes tournament on Friday, so the leverage is there.
Clint Capela also doesn’t have favorable road splits:
(FanDuel, via FantasyLabs NBA Trends tool)
Capela has experienced a decrease in scoring efficiency on the road this season, averaging 1.5 fewer points per game than he did at home during the regular season. And in the playoffs, he’s averaged 17.3 points per game at home but only 10.3 on the road. The Models still have him projected as a better value than Rudy Gobert on DraftKings at only $200 more, but Gobert has the edge on FanDuel, where Capela’s $8,800 salary is $1,200 more than Gobert’s.
Chris Paul doesn’t stand out at $8,500 on FanDuel, but his DraftKings salary of $7,300 on DraftKings continues to be the lowest it’s been since Nov. 16. In nine other instances in which he’s been priced in a similar range this season, he’s smashed:
Trevor Ariza has better splits on the road than at home. He’s a solid value, especially at $4,100 on DraftKings, where he’s hit value in 74.1% of road games this season when priced under $5,000.
Eric Gordon broke out of his 5-of-22 shooting slump in this series coming into Game 3 and remains a nice option with upside at only $5,200 on FanDuel and $4,700 on DraftKings, respectively.
P.J. Tucker is a punt option at $3,700 on DraftKings, though he played only 24 minutes last game, –the first time he’s been below 30 this series. Luc Mbah a Moute is projected to play just over 20 minutes and is also a punt option. Gerald Green, Ryan Anderson, and Nene will likely need garbage time to get significant minutes off the bench.
Jazz (101.75 implied points)
Donovan Mitchell continues to struggle offensively in this series, averaging only 16.0 points per game on 19-of-59 (32.2%) shooting. Getting back Ricky Rubio would be a blessing and a curse for Mitchell’s DFS value. On one hand, Mitchell averages fewer fantasy points per minute due to fewer playmaking responsibilities with Rubio on the court, but his shooting efficiency increases with Rubio on the floor, which at this point is the more important factor. With his salary decreasing, Mitchell is a nice tournament play who is projected to have less ownership than most other players in his salary range.
The Rockets continue to force the Jazz away from lineups featuring both Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors, and now Favors is questionable with a sprained ankle. Either way, Jae Crowder has played more minutes than Favors in each game of this series and is one of the better values at his price point. Gobert, meanwhile, is still yet to smash in DFS this season against Houston:
(FanDuel)
Joe Ingles cooled off from his 16-of-24 shooting in this series coming into Game 3, producing only six points while committing five turnovers. He’d also lose some value if Rubio returned and is best suited as a tournament play because he isn’t likely to garner much ownership after the ugly outing in Game 3.
Royce O’Neale, Alec Burks, and Dante Exum would all see less playing time if Rubio returns, but O’Neale and Burks in particular would make for solid tournament options if Rubio sits again.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Anthony Davis
Photo credit:Derick E. Hingle – USA TODAY Sports
