The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a two-game slate starting at 5 p.m. ET.
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers (-9.5) | O/U: 206.5
5 p.m. ET | ESPN
76ers (108 implied points)
The 76ers have their backs against the wall, but John Ewing found that 0-2 teams who are playing at home in Game 3 have covered the first-half spread at a 67% clip, which bodes well for their fantasy prospects. Their implied team total is second only to the Cavs on today’s slate.
Ben Simmons was an absolute disaster in Game 2, scoring just one point while recording five turnovers en route to a Plus/Minus of -27.82 on DraftKings. Unfortunately, his struggles against the Celtics are nothing new — he’s now 0-for-6 at returning value against them this season:
The Celtics have done a nice job of giving him different looks on the defensive end, with Horford, Morris, and Smart all matching up with him at various points in the game. All three have held Simmons below his scoring average per 100 possessions, which is a big reason why the Celtics are currently up 2-0 in this series. His salary has been reduced to just $8,300 on DraftKings — giving him a Bargain Rating of 99% — which could make this a prime buy-low opportunity. The Celtics may ultimately just have his number, but he’s way more talented than his current price indicates.
Joel Embiid is another potentially underpriced option on DraftKings, where his $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He leads all players with 12 Pro Trends, and unlike Simmons, he’s found success against the Celtics throughout his young career:
Embiid should be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
Both Dario Saric and Robert Covington have seen salary decreases of $700 on DraftKings over the past month, making them intriguing GPP options. Covington crushed in Game 2, scoring 46.25 DraftKings points while playing 40.5 minutes, but Saric has been a bit of a disappointment since Embiid returned to the lineup. Both players unfortunately have brutal individual matchups: Covington’s FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus is -0.91 and Saric’s is -0.40.
J.J. Redick gets nearly all of his fantasy value from scoring, but that’s okay when you’re one of the best pure shooters in the league, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in eight of his past 10 games. His field-goal percentage has increased by approximately 4.1 percentage points when he’s played at home this season, giving him a slight boost in value with the series returning to Philly.
Celtics (98.5 implied points)
The Celtics entered this series as +315 underdogs, but they somewhat surprisingly jumped out to a 2-0 series lead. However, they’re the largest of the two underdogs on Saturday’s slate, and their implied team total is ranked last as well. They got Jaylen Brown back from injury on a limited basis last game, which limits the appeal of some of their starters. Ultimately, they’re likely to be the lowest-owned team on the slate.
Terry Rozier has been dominant over his past three games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +17.42 on FanDuel. Unfortunately, the next two games are on the road, where Rozier has been a significantly worse fantasy producer this season (per our NBA Trends tool):
Rozier’s usage rate took a hit with Brown returning to the lineup. He posted a usage rate of just 20.8% in Game 2 after posting a usage rate of at least 24.0% in each of his prior two games. With his salary climbing all the way up to $8,800 on FanDuel and $8,500 on DraftKings, he’s an intriguing fade candidate.
Al Horford leads all players with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel. He’s been extremely effective over the past month, averaging 1.11 FanDuel points per minute and a Consistency Rating of 90%. He’s exceeded value in each of the first two games of this series, and he’s thoroughly torched Joel Embiid when matched up with him, shooting 8-of-10 from the field and 2-of-3 from 3-point range. Horford is a nice value on FanDuel, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.
The return of Brown had little effect on Marcus Smart, who played a playoff-high 39.5 minutes in Game 2. Smart’s shot finally started falling, as he was 6-of-13 from the field and 4-of-10 from 3-point range, which enabled him to post a DraftKings Plus/Minus of +9.69. His salary has risen by $900 on DraftKings and $1,300 on FanDuel since the beginning of the playoffs, so he’ll likely need another good shooting performance to return value at his elevated salary.
Jayson Tatum played 33.5 minutes in Game 2, a decrease of nearly 6 minutes when compared to Game 1 of this series (39.5) and Game 7 of the previous series (39.0). Unfortunately, his price tag hasn’t reflected that yet, making him a bit overpriced for Saturday’s contest.
Marcus Morris is a volatile performer, but he definitely has upside. He only plays about 26 minutes per game, but he usually gets enough shots up during those minutes to have a chance at returning value. He makes sense for guaranteed prize pools, especially on FanDuel, where his Bargain Rating is 86%
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-4) | O/U: 216
8:30 p.m ET | ESPN
Cavaliers (110 implied points)
The narrative on the Cavaliers has done a complete 360 since the start of the playoffs. They were taken to seven games by a Pacers team with a clear deficiency in talent, but the Cavs have had their way with the Raptors through the first two games of this series. They’re now -850 favorites to return to the Eastern Conference Finals, and their implied team total is the top mark among the four teams on Saturday’s slate.
What else is left to be said about LeBron James at this point? He continues to absolutely dominate in year 15. His performance in Game 2 was a master class: 43 points, 14 assists, eight rebounds, and one turnover. The Raptors have shown no ability to contain him, and he deserves to be treated as the top option on the slate. His ceiling projection in our NBA Models is nearly 20 points higher than that of any other player on the slate.
Kevin Love also had a fantastic performance in Game 2, but his production feels more unsustainable. Not only was Love’s usage rate (35.2%) more than 10 percentage points higher than his season average (25.1%), but the 45.1% career shooter also connected on more than 50% of his attempts from the field. His salary increased by $800 on DraftKings and $1,000 on FanDuel after that performance, and given his projected ownership of 36% to 40%, he’s in consideration as a fade candidate.
No one else on the Cavs has a salary above even $4,500 on DraftKings, which goes to show just how much LeBron is carrying this team at the moment. Of the group, George Hill is probably the most appealing target after playing more than 35 minutes in Game 2. His $3,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Raptors (106 implied points)
I’ve personally never seen a team look more dejected than the Raptors after what LeBron James did to them in Game 2. Most people (myself included) thought that this was a different team this season, but so far it’s been the same old results versus the King in the postseason. Down two games to none, the Raptors are heading on the road for Games 3 and 4, and they need to find a way to win one of those games just to have a shot at returning to Toronto. They’re only slight underdogs in Game 3, so there’s at least optimism that they can turn things around.
Kyle Lowry was awesome in the first half of Game 2 but became nearly invisible after halftime. He’s still posted a Consistency Rating of 91% on DraftKings over the past month, and the matchup with the Cavs results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.42. His $7,700 salary carries a Bargain Rating of 86%.
DeMar DeRozan is arguably in an even better spot. His DraftKings salary decreased by $600 following Game 2, and with it now at $7,800, he carries a Bargain Rating of 95%. He also has a solid individual matchup, as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.40. Unfortunately, he’s had little fantasy success against the Cavs this season, posting a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in just one of five games:
Still, it’s tough not to like DeRozan to bounce back given his depressed salary and the Cavs’ recurring defensive struggles.
Jonas Valanciunas stands out as the Raptors’ best value on FanDuel, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.20 over his past 10 games and has played at least 31 minutes in three of his past four games. The production has always been there for Valanciunas — he’s averaging 1.22 FanDuel points per minute this season — so he figures to be a value as long as he continues to get extended playing time.
The rest of the Raps’ roster is pretty volatile. Fred VanVleet is the best bet to see 24-plus minutes, but he’s been dreadful over his past 10 games:
(DraftKings)
That said, VanVleet’s salary on DraftKings has decreased by $900 over that span, which makes him an interesting buy-low option. He was one of the only players to post a positive Net Rating in Game 2, and his minutes seem pretty secure.
Pascal Siakam has spent some time on the court attempting to serve as a LeBron stopper, but that has been an absolute disaster. LeBron has exceeded his scoring average by 17.1 points per 100 possessions against Siakam, so it’s possible that Raptors head coach Dwane Casey looks elsewhere Saturday.
C.J. Miles can give Toronto something on the offensive end, but he was another member of the Raptors who was abused on defense in Game 2. Love took it to Miles in the post at will, so Miles could also lose some minutes in this contest.
Finally, Delon Wright saw 23.5 minutes in Game 2 and has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Ben Simmons
Photo credit: Brett Davis – USA TODAY Sports.
