The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a two-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Golden State Warriors (-4) at New Orleans Pelicans | O/U: 232
8 p.m. ET | ESPN
Warriors (118 implied points)
Here we go: Warriors-Pelicans is the highest-total game in NBA playoff history. This is nothing new for the Warriors, though: They’ve played 17 games this season alone with a total that closed at 230 or higher. Interestingly enough, when I plugged that into our NBA Trends tool, I found that it wasn’t any of the Warriors shooters that exceeded salary-based expectations the most in such situations. It was Swiss-Army knife Draymond Green:
What’s happening here? Salary algorithms have long taken into account Vegas odds, so they can simply jack up the salaries of a team’s top scorers in games like this. However, that’s not exactly the case Friday. Stephen Curry‘s $8,700 salary is tied for his second-lowest in a game with a total of 230-plus, and Kevin Durant‘s $9,300 and Klay Thompson‘s $5,900 marks are the lowest they’ve been in a game like this. In fact, DraftKings has caught on with Green — his $8,200 is the highest he’s been priced in this situation.
Curry played 27 minutes in his return, and coach Steve Kerr has indicated that Curry will be back in the starting lineup for Game 3. Curry’s salary being sandwiched between Durant’s and Green’s is interesting, because if they all end up playing a similar amount of minutes, Curry should be flip-flopped with Durant. Using our NBA On/Off tool, here are each player’s DraftKings point per minute during the regular season and playoffs with all three on the floor together:
- Curry: 1.27
- Durant: 1.21
- Green: 1.07
The bottom line is this: On DraftKings, Green is appropriately priced, Durant is underpriced, and Curry is way underpriced. From an upside perspective, Durant is a little more valuable than Curry to this slate — his projected ceiling is over 20 points higher than any other player eligible at the position on either DraftKings or FanDuel (and you have to pay a premium for him on the latter) — but you have to wonder if the presence of other options will lower Curry’s ownership ever so slightly in tournaments.
Thompson’s production declined with Curry back in action in Game 2, but that was more to do with shooting 4-of-20 than anything else; Thompson’s per-minute production has remained steady whether Curry is on or off the floor this season. Thompson’s $6,700 FanDuel salary implies 29.85 fantasy points, but his $5,900 DraftKings salary implies 27.56, so it makes sense to target him more heavily on the site where he’s cheaper and where he’s awarded a bonus for each 3 he sinks. His Consistency on DraftKings this season is 50%; on FanDuel, 43%.
Kevon Looney has played 22-24 minutes in each game this series, solidifying his spot in the rotation by doing a solid job defending Anthony Davis. Our NBA Models have Looney with a projected ceiling on DraftKings of just over 30 points, which the Trends tool reveals has historically been a good indicator of enhanced consistency at a salary under $4,000 (Looney is $3,400):
Speaking of cheap Warriors that play defense, Andre Iguodala is another playable option in this likely fast-paced affair. He’s a better value on FanDuel, where he’s priced $100 above E’Twaun Moore but projected for 15% less ownership.
As you can see from the table above, David West has been the clear beneficiary among Warriors bench players in high-total games. West’s $4,300 FanDuel salary is excessive, but he scores 1.27 fantasy points a minute on DraftKings and can be useful there if his minutes creep into the mid-teens.
Pelicans (114 implied points)
The Pelicans have played only five games with a total of 230 or higher this year, and here’s how they’ve done (again courtesy of the Trends tool):
(DraftKings)
Those aren’t the only splits working in Anthony Davis‘ favor Friday — his home/road splits this season have been straight-up silly:
Maybe it’s the food in New Orleans? (Last year I had some of the best fried chicken of my life in New Orleans, and it was just something I grabbed on the go from a chicken spot in a gas station, of all places. Also, chicken spots in gas stations are apparently a thing out there. New Orleans 1, New York City 0.) Davis has put up at least 21 points, 10 rebounds, and two blocks in every playoff game, and all signs ahead of Game 3 point to a smash spot.
Jrue Holiday is shooting just 15-of-39 (38.5%) for the series, but playing in a fast-paced game like this gives him massive upside — especially considering head coach Alvin Gentry is willing to leave him on the floor for over 46 minutes, as he did in Game 2. Rajon Rondo isn’t the scorer that Holiday is, but he’s dished at least 11 dimes and grabbed at least seven boards in each game of this series. Despite the fact that Rondo is the cheaper of the two — especially on FanDuel, where he’s $1,500 less — the Models actually have him projected slightly higher than Holiday, making him the more cash-game friendly of the two.
After a stretch in which Nikola Mirotic posted a DraftKings Plus/Minus of +13.0 or better in 7-of-8 games, he’s come back down to earth with a cumulative -7.2 over his past three. He took 16.0 shots per game during that eight-game stretch but only 11.0 per game since (12.5 in this series). The Warriors have mostly switched smaller defenders onto Mirotic because he’s not a big post-up threat, and he’s yet to make them pay. He’s not as much of a sure thing to smash as he’s been in the past, but his salary has come down, and he’s still one of the cheaper ways to get 35-40-minute exposure to this game.
E’Twaun Moore has attempted more shots in each of the two games of this series than he attempted in any of the five games of the Spurs series. He’s averaging only 0.67 fantasy points per minute over the past month on both sites, but he played over 35 minutes in Game 2. From a DFS perspective, this matchup essentially makes Moore a supercharged version of what you’d normally expect from J.R. Smith.
The Pelicans bench may not get much action if this game stays close, but Darius Miller is the one player that has outperformed expectations in high-total games and is averaging 21.9 minutes per game in this series if you’re looking to dig deep for a contrarian play.
Houston Rockets (-4.5) at Utah Jazz | O/U: 209.5
10:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Rockets (107 implied points)
Both sites have James Harden priced higher on the road than Anthony Davis at home, and one of the reasons I continually refer back to these simple splits is because sites have tended to not price them to as much of a degree as they probably should. Harden’s home/road splits this season aren’t as lopsided as Davis’, but they still favor the home side:
(DraftKings, via FantasyLabs NBA Trends tool)
(FanDuel, via FantasyLabs NBA Trends tool)
Price comparisons to Davis notwithstanding, Harden has still been a monster in this series, averaging 36.5 points, 9.0 assists, and 7.0 rebounds per game.
Clint Capela is yet another guy with lopsided home/road splits:
The main culprit has been a decrease in scoring efficiency: Capela averaged 1.5 fewer points per game on the road than at home during the regular season, and he’s averaged 17.3 at home but only 10.5 on the road in the playoffs thus far. He’s still a better value than Rudy Gobert on DraftKings, where he’s $300 cheaper, but that value disappears on FanDuel, where he’s $1,000 more.
Chris Paul doesn’t stand out at $8,800 on FanDuel, but at $7,400 his salary on DraftKings is the lowest it’s been since November 16. And if you’re going to enter DraftKings tournaments, you’ll want to note that Paul’s crushed at low ownership when priced in a similar range:
(via the FantasyLabs Trends tool)
Trevor Ariza is the rare NBA player that has better road splits than home splits. He’s hit value on DraftKings in 57.1% of road games this season despite a Plus/Minus of +0.45. Ariza’s salary of $4,000 is a season-low, and he’s been a great value on the road at a price point of $5,000 or less:
In 26 road games this season at a salary of $5,000 or less on DraftKings, Ariza has averaged a +2.24 Plus/Minus and an absolutely stellar 73% Consistency rate.
P.J. Tucker has normal home/road splits that favor being at home, but he’s played 33 minutes or more in each of Houston’s past three games and is a solid punt option. Luc Mbah a Moute is dicier after playing only 18.3 minutes per game since his return.
Eric Gordon is shooting only 5-of-22 in this series but is still a solid option given his price point of $5,000 and $4,400 on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively.
Nene is one of only three centers available on FanDuel and is available for $2,500. He’s played just eight minutes so far in the series, so he’d need garbage time to pay off in contrarian tournament lineups.
Jazz (102.5 implied points)
In our Jazz-Rockets preview over at The Action Network, here’s what I had to say about Donovan Mitchell:
That’s not to say the rookie phenom will have it easy, however. Though three of Utah’s four regular-season meetings with the Rockets occurred before Jan. 1, it’s worth noting that Mitchell topped 17 points in a game against them just once. Much of the credit for that goes to one of Houston’s defensive aces, Trevor Ariza. On 101 offensive possessions when guarded by Ariza, Mitchell shot only 11-of-27 (40.4%) and drew just one shooting foul, also committing more turnovers (7) than he dished out assists (4).
Through two games, it’s been more of the same: Ariza has held Mitchell to 7-of-20 shooting on 83 possessions, with Harden (3-of-8 on 20 possessions) and Mbah a Moute (0-of-7 on 18 possession) chipping in as well. Mitchell’s 17 and 21 points in Games 1 and 2, respectively, are his two lowest outputs of the playoffs. He’s not in cash-game consideration, though it’s worth noting he’s projected to be among the lowest-owned studs.
Joe Ingles is bound to cool off from his 16-of-24 shooting in this series, but he along with Mitchell have been the two most +EV plays on DraftKings this season when the Jazz are at home:
The Rockets’ space-heavy offense has been catastrophic for Utah’s two-big starting combo of Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors, bleeding 133.5 points per 100 possessions on defense in the 24 minutes they’ve shared the floor. In related news: Favors played only 20:54 in Game 2. Gobert is a better play on FanDuel, where he’s a lot cheaper than Capela and blocked shots are worth more.
I don’t know what went wrong in Cleveland in the fall/winter (besides the Browns, obviously), but Jae Crowder looks like a different player in Utah. He’s played at least 30 minutes in each of his past four playoff games, with point-rebound lines such as 27-8, 21-5, and 15-10 in three of them. At $5,000 on FanDuel and $4,700 on DraftKings, Crowder is one of the top value options on the slate.
The Ricky Rubio-replacement collective of Royce O’Neale, Alec Burks, and Dante Exum are all cost-effective punts. We have O’Neale projected for 28 minutes, Burks 22, and Exum 18.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Anthony Davis (left) and Stephen Curry
Photo credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports
