The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
DraftKings and FanDuel are each guaranteed prize pools of at least $1,000,000 for Thursday’s Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors at 9 p.m. ET.
FanDuel’s contests feature five-man rosters, a $60,000 cap and scoring multipliers for whichever player you designate as the MVP (2x), Star (1.5x), and Pro (1.2x). FanDuel’s multipliers introduce more lineup combinations and should help to limit some of the all-too-common ties that occur in these contests.
DraftKings is debuting a new format for their biggest GPP: Showdown Captain Mode. Instead of the traditional six-man roster, you’ll now have to choice one captain, who scores 1.5x points but also costs 1.5x his traditional salary. Choosing a high-priced player means you’ll have to sacrifice more of your available cap space but gives you added upside if you choose the correct stud, while choosing a low-priced player limits how many additional points your captain will score but allows you to create a more balanced roster. It’s a really cool idea by DraftKings and should lead to a lot of unique lineups despite the limited player pool.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-12.5) | O/U: 214.5
9 p.m. ET | ABC
It might have been more difficult than expected for both teams, but ultimately the Cavs and Warriors will square off in the NBA Finals for the fourth straight year. The Cavs come in as heavy underdogs at +625, which makes them the longest shot to win the NBA Finals in the past 18 years. They’re 12.5-point underdogs in Game 1 — the largest spread LeBron James has faced in his entire playoff career. The public is somewhat tempted by the thought of getting LeBron as a big underdog, with 53% of the bets coming in on the Cavaliers.
Warriors (113.5 implied points)
The Warriors possess an overabundance of superstars, but Stephen Curry was undoubtedly their best fantasy producer during the Rockets series. Curry scored at least 44.0 DraftKings points in the last five games of that series, and he still has room to improve given that he shot “only” 47.7% from the field and 40.3% from 3; those are great numbers for most players, but Curry was better in both departments during the regular season. The Cavs also represent a huge matchup upgrade for Curry, who should have his way with whoever the Cavs put in front of him. Curry only played in one game against the Cavs during the regular season, and unfortunately that game came before the Cavs overhauled their roster during the trade deadline, so it’s tough to glean much from it. The Cavs defense has improved throughout the postseason, but they’ve still allowed 105.9 points per 100 possessions.
It felt like Kevin Durant was a bit of a disappointment during the Rockets series, but he still averaged 30.4 points per game on 46.1%/39.6%/88.5% shooting splits. What really hurt Durant from a fantasy perspective was his lack of peripheral statistics, but there’s a chance those could pick back up against the Cavaliers. Durant averaged 8.2 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 2.6 blocks plus steals in last year’s NBA Finals to go with a ridiculous 35.2 points per game. Playing against LeBron seems to bring the best out of Durant, so don’t be surprised if he puts together a monster Game 1. Durant is still priced at a discount compared to Curry on DraftKings, which only increases his appeal. During the regular season, Durant was only guarded by LeBron for 20 possessions (LeBron spent most of his time guarding Draymond Green), but LeBron was able to hold him 6.4 points per 100 possessions below his season average.
Draymond Green could be an interesting target given his matchup history with the Cavs. He’s absolutely destroyed them over the past four seasons, averaging 46.94 DraftKings points, a +9.55 Plus/Minus, and a Consistency Rating of 87.5%, per our NBA Trends tool.
As usual, Klay Thompson is the ultimate boom-or-bust option. Thompson has the potential to go off against anyone, though he does have a tough matchup on paper against J.R. Smith, who held him to 12.1 points per 100 possessions below his average during the regular season. Thompson scored 19 or fewer points in three of five games against Cleveland in the 2016-17 NBA Finals.
Andre Iguodala will miss his fifth straight game of the postseason, which should lead to another start for Kevon Looney, who has not been much of a contributor from a fantasy perspective when he’s been in the starting lineup. Looney played fewer minutes than Jordan Bell in each of the past two games, and Bell is still cheaper than Looney on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which makes Bell the more appealing target of the two.
The rest of the Warriors rotation is a bit of a mystery. Shaun Livingston is the safest bet for minutes, but he’s been a low-impact fantasy player during the postseason. It’s possible that JaVale McGee or Zaza Pachulia could also re-enter the rotation after combining for 14 DNP-coach’s decisions during the Rockets series. The Cavs play a much more traditional style of basketball, keeping two big men on the court at most times. David West could also see minutes. West has been a per-minute monster over the course of the season. Ultimately, all three of the Warriors big men have appeal at just $1,000 on DraftKings, and they’ll likely command low ownership as well.
Cavaliers (101 implied points)
LeBron James has done everything for the Cavs this season, but he’s likely going to have to hit superhuman heights in order to drag them over the finish line against the Warriors. LeBron averaged 33.6 points, 12.0 rebounds, 10.0 assists, and 2.4 blocks plus steals in the 2016-17 NBA Finals, and the Cavs still lost in five games (with Kyrie Irving, mind you). It goes without saying that LeBron has the highest projected ceiling of any player on the slate, and he of course also commands the highest price tag. If you use him as the captain on DraftKings, it leaves you with just $27,500 to fill out the remaining five slots. It’s much easier to fill out your roster if you pick one of the Warriors superstars as captain, though that might actually make LeBron a contrarian choice. During the regular season, Durant guarded LeBron on 77 possessions (the most on the Warriors) and limited him to 6.6 points below his average per 100 possessions.
Kevin Love (concussion) is available to play in Game 1, which makes him an interesting choice from a game theory perspective. Love could garner lower ownership than usual because of his “questionable” injury designation, but he likely wont be limited. Love had his way with the Warriors during the regular season, exceeding his per-100-possession scoring average by 21.5 points against Jordan Bell and 14.3 points against Green.
After LeBron and Love, it’s nearly impossible to predict which of the Cavs role players will show up, especially on the road. Jeff Green was fantastic back in Game 7 of the Celtics series, but some of that can be attributed to Love being out of the lineup. Green’s current scoring prop bet is set at just 9.5 points, so Vegas is clearly expecting him to take a step back with Love back in the lineup. Priced up across the industry, Green is tough to roster at his current price point.
Tristan Thompson has had a couple of big games for the Cavs this postseason, but his role could be in jeopardy; the Warriors don’t play a big lineup, and the Cavs could sacrifice Thompson in order to get more spacing and perimeter shooting on the floor. Thompson has already been sent to the bench before during these playoffs and is far from a lock to see the 29.1 minutes he averaged over his six starts in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Larry Nance Jr. also gave the Cavs solid minutes last round but played just eight minutes in Game 7. Like Thompson, Nance’s role is in flux.
J.R. Smith and George Hill will likely start at guard for the Cavs, but both of them have been dreadful away from home during the playoffs. Even though they might combine for close to 80 minutes, it’s tough to consider rostering either one of them outside Cleveland. In fact, Kyle Korver might be the more appealing target. He will come off the bench but has been the best contributor of the group on a per-minute basis. It’s very possible that Korver sees more playing time against the Warriors; the Cavs are going to need to get offense from someone outside of Love and LeBron in order to hang with Golden State, and Korver might be their best bet.
Jordan Clarkson rounds out the Cavs rotation. Clarkson was a usage monster during the Celtics series, averaging a usage rate of 27.2%, though he shot just 30.2% from the field. If he can improve his field-goal percentage by a marginal rate, he has a chance to end up returning decent value at his current salary on DraftKings.
Good luck tonight, and be sure to check out The Action Network for more in-depth NBA analysis.
Pictured Above: LeBron James and Kevin Durant
Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA Today Sports
