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DraftKings and FanDuel are each offering $100,000 first-place prizes in their largest one-game guaranteed prize pools for Wednesday’s Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets at 9 p.m. ET.
If you’re not familiar, DraftKings’ one-game contests feature six-man rosters, a $50,000 cap, and no scoring multipliers, while FanDuel’s feature five-man rosters, a $60,000 cap, and scoring multipliers for whichever player you designate as the MVP (2x), Star (1.5x), and Pro (1.2x). FanDuel’s multipliers introduce more lineup combinations and should help to limit some of the all-too-common ties that occur in these contests, while DraftKings’ lack of multipliers increases the likelihood of ties and therefore provides extra incentive to go contrarian in other ways, such as by taking a player projected for extremely low ownership or by leaving salary on the table.
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets (-1) | O/U: 219.5
9 p.m. ET | TNT
Rockets (110.25 implied points)
Most people declared the Rockets dead after their Game 3 loss, but they managed to pull out a gutsy win in Game 4 to even the series at 2-2 as it heads back to Houston. However, the public still doesn’t seem to believe in the Rockets, as 73% of the bets are coming in on the Warriors to take Game 5 on the road, and the Warriors are still listed as -200 favorites to win this series despite the fact that two of the three possible games would take place in Houston.
The most impressive part of the Rockets’ Game 4 win is they did it despite a subpar game from James Harden, who scored 30 points but needed 26 field goal attempts to get there. Harden was particularly poor from the 3-point line, shooting just 3-of-12 from the field and managing only five free-throw attempts. Harden hasn’t really exploded since Game 1, but he still carries the highest ceiling projection in our NBA Models among all players on the slate.
Chris Paul was extremely aggressive in Game 4, and his usage rate of 29.0% represented his highest mark thus far in the series. Paul saw a variety of defenders in that contest, but Draymond Green ended up guarding him for the most possessions. Paul thrived in that matchup, exceeding his per-100-possession scoring average by 14.2 points, thanks mostly to his willingness to beat him on the perimeter. Look for Paul to be aggressive again if he finds himself in that matchup.
The Rockets’ most reliable role player during this series has been P.J. Tucker, who posted a monster Game 2 thanks to some unreal shooting numbers and also put together a strong Game 4 performance, ripping down 16 rebounds. Tucker played a whopping 44 minutes in Game 4 and has averaged a respectable 0.74 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He should continue to play big minutes in head coach Mike D’Antoni’s shortened rotation.
Eric Gordon made some key shots down the stretch in Game 4, but he continues to struggle from the field overall. Gordon was just 8-of-27 (29.6%) combined over the two games in Oakland, which represents a massive decrease from his regular-season average of 42.8%. Perhaps returning to Houston will help him find his jump shot again; he shot 50% from the field over the first two games of the series, and also shot significantly better when playing at the Toyota Center than on the road during the regular season.
Clint Capela has been the odd man out for the Rockets during the series, logging just 22.75 minutes per game over the last two. Capela failed to return value in each of the first four games, and at his salary it’s going to be tough for him to bounce back with both teams playing small.
Trevor Ariza has also had a minimal impact on this series from a fantasy perspective. Unlike Capela, Ariza is still playing a ton of minutes, but he’s posted an average usage rate of just 11.2% of the past three games and hasn’t been nearly as big of a factor in the peripheral stat categories as Tucker, which means he’ll likely need a hot shooting night in order to return value. That is a possibility, though, as he scored 38.8 FanDuel points in Game 2 on 7-of-9 shooting. Ariza’s ownership should be modest at best, giving him added viability.
Gerald Green rounds out the Rockets’ rotation and should see somewhere between 10 and 15 minutes in Game 5, assuming it’s competitive. However, Green’s production has waned during the postseason. He’s averaging just 0.69 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has failed to eclipse 13.4 in this series.
Warriors (109.25 implied points)
The Warriors blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter of Game 4 and now are in a position where they will have to win another game in Houston to advance to their fourth straight NBA Finals. Golden State may potentially be shorthanded on Thursday, with both Klay Thompson (knee) and Andre Iguodala (leg) listed as questionable. Head coach Steve Kerr said that he ultimately expects Thompson to be fine, but Iguodala could be heading for another game-time decision.
Stephen Curry exploded offensively during Game 3, scoring 35 points thanks to shooting 7-of-7 from the field during the third quarter, but the Rockets have done a good job of keeping him in check for the majority of the series. Five different defenders each guarded him for at least 10 possessions in Game 4 – Paul, Harden, Ariza, Gordon, and Tucker – and they held him to just 10-of-21 shooting from the field and 5-of-12 from the 3-point line. That said, there is reason to believe Curry could regress, as 39.5% of his 3-point shots during this series have been classified as “open” or “wide open,” per NBA.com, which is only a slight decrease from his regular-season average of 47%. The big difference has been that Curry has only made 34.2% of those shots compared to 44.9% during the regular season. Curry is one of the best shooters in the history of the league, so eventually those shots will start falling again.
Kevin Durant has failed to return value in each of the first four games during this series. Durant scored the ball well in the first two games, averaging 37.5 points per game, but failed to contribute in any of the peripheral categories. He picked up his peripheral production during the two games in Golden State, averaging 9.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, but his scoring average dipped to 26.0. If Durant can find a way to couple his Game 1-2 scoring with his Game 3-4 peripheral production, he’d have a monster fantasy game.
Draymond Green has been fantastic in this series, which makes sense given his utter domination of the Rockets over the past two seasons. Per our NBA Trends tool, Green has averaged a +6.47 Plus/Minus and 72.7% Consistency against the Rockets since the start of last season. He has been priced up a bit on DraftKings, but he remains just the fifth-most expensive option on FanDuel and makes a lot of sense for one of the premium roster slots there.
Klay Thompson could be an intriguing target given his current injury status. Some DFS players will likely be scared off by Thompson’s questionable tag, which could depress his ownership. That said, he hasn’t exactly been effective during the majority of this series, failing to hit value in each of the past three games. He can explode at any given time, however, which makes him an intruiging play from a game theory perspective.
Andre Iguodala is the big wild card; if he’s active, he has the potential to be a nice value. Iguodala is averaging 0.84 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, a solid increase from his regular-season average of 0.76.
If Iguodala can’t go, look for the majority of his minutes to be split between Kevon Looney and Jordan Bell. Looney will likely draw the start, and he has averaged a solid 0.81 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. However, Bell might be even more intriguing as the cheaper of the two after averaging a stout 1.08 FanDuel points per minute over the course of the season and contributing 18 FanDuel points in 18 minutes in Game 4. Bell is the ultimate boom-or-bust play.
The Warriors round out their rotation with Shaun Livingston and Nick Young, both of whom could also see more minutes if Iguodala is ruled out. Neither player has been very impactful during this series, but both still warrant consideration as punts on DraftKings.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Stephen Curry
Photo credit: Kelley L. Cox – USA Today Sports
