The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
The NBA returns on Sunday with Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Cleveland Cavaliers will be taking on the Boston Celtics, and there is some big money available to be won on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Each site is offering a $300,000 guaranteed prize pool tournament with first place taking home $100,000.
Before getting into the game, it’s important to note that FanDuel has changed the format for their one-game slates. Instead of doing one guard, one forward, two utilities, and one MVP (who earns 1.5x scoring), they’re transitioning to two utilities, one MVP (2x scoring), one Star (1.5x scoring), and one Pro (1.2x scoring). This should hopefully reduce some of the ties that have taken place at the top of the leaderboard while introducing another level of game theory to the contests. Not only will you have to select the correct players, you’ll also have to put them in the correct slots in order to have a shot at taking home big money.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-2) at Boston Celtics | O/U: 205.5
Cavaliers (103.75 implied points)
The Cavs opened up as slight road underdogs but have moved to small favorites after receiving nearly 70% of the bets. The Cavs offense has been extremely efficient during the postseason, averaging 110.0 points per 100 possessions, while the Celtics have fallen from first in defensive efficiency during the regular season to seventh during the playoffs.
Of course, the Cavaliers start with LeBron James, who is arguably putting together his best postseason in year 15 of his storied career. He’s averaging 34.3 points, 9.0 assists, 9.4 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks plus steals per game through the first two rounds while logging over 41 minutes per game. The Celtics have a lot of options to throw at him on the defensive end of the court — Jaylen Brown, Marcus Morris, Marcus Smart, and Semi Ojeleye will all likely get a crack at him — but it doesn’t seem like anyone on the planet can slow him down at the moment. His ceiling projection is more than 30 points higher than any other player’s on today’s slate, and he should be almost a unanimous choice for the MVP slot on FanDuel.
Kevin Love looked rejuvenated during the Raptors series, scoring at least 21 points in each of the last three games. Unfortunately for Love, things may be much tougher for him against the Celtics. He was guarded primarily by Al Horford when these two teams met during the regular season, and Horford was able to limit him to just 4-of-16 shooting from the field and 1-of-5 shooting from 3-point range. Overall, his fantasy production in two games against the Celtics was terrible: 21.1 FanDuel points per game, a -12.31 average Plus/Minus, and 0% Consistency (per our NBA Trends tool). He’s also been priced up pretty aggressively after the Raptors series, which makes him a strong fade candidate.
Kyle Korver has been a nice source of fantasy value as of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in three of his past four games. That said, he’s shot the ball unsustainably well recently, making 12 of his past 16 shots from the field and eight of his past 11 shots from 3-point range. If he cools down at all, he’ll struggle to return value because he offers very little outside of scoring.
George Hill has emerged as a key player for the Cavs in the postseason. He doesn’t offer much in terms of upside, but he should see close to 34 minutes if this game stays competitive.
The rest of the Cavs are a little more volatile. J.R. Smith should see a healthy amount of playing time, but he’s averaged just 0.56 fantasy points per minute over the past month. Tristan Thompson has reemerged after being inactive for a large part of the Pacers series, but he’s played 15 minutes or less in each of his past three games. The most appealing option for the Cavs outside of their core group might be Jeff Green, who’s averaged a respectable 0.71 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has the potential to play upwards of 28 minutes.
Celtics (101.75 implied points)
The Celtics don’t possess the same star power as the Cavaliers, but they should feature a more predictable rotation; they currently have six players projected for at least 30 minutes of playing time in our NBA Models.
Al Horford has been extremely reliable for the Celtics during the postseason. So much of what he does isn’t reflected in the box score, but he’s still managed to contribute 17.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 2.5 steals plus blocks per game through his first 12 postseason contests in 2018. The Cavs have been a bit better defensively during the playoffs than they were during the regular season, but Horford still owns an outstanding Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.15 on DraftKings.
The big X-factor for the Celtics is Jaylen Brown. He was arguably their best player during their first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks, but he was limited with a hamstring injury for the duration of their second-round series against the 76ers. If he’s back to full strength, he has a chance to be one of the best values of the day. He has an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.58 on DraftKings and has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s a strong choice for the Star or Pro spot in FanDuel contests.
Unfortunately, the increased presence for Brown will likely result in decreased value for the rest of the Boston wings. Jayson Tatum has scored at least 20 points in eight straight games, but his usage rate has decreased by 1.3 percentage points when sharing the court with Brown, per our NBA On/Off tool.
Marcus Morris has also seen a decrease in usage with Brown on the floor, and he could see a few less minutes in this series if his claim of being the second-best LeBron stopper in the league doesn’t hold true. He certainly didn’t live up to that performance during the regular season, where LeBron exceeded his scoring average by 7.1 points per 100 possessions when matched up with Morris. Ojeleye was the most effective Celtics defender of LeBron during the regular season, so he could see a few extra minutes if Morris isn’t up to the task.
Marcus Smart could also see a few minutes on LeBron during this series, and he’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s a volatile performer due to his occasional inability to score, but he has upside.
Finally, Terry Rozier might have the highest ceiling on the Celtics, especially considering that this game is being played in Boston. He had some of the most drastic home/road splits in the NBA this season:
Rozier is a bit pricy on FanDuel, where his $15,000 salary trails only LeBron’s, but he’s a reasonable target on DraftKings.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Jaylen Brown
Photo credit: Erik Williams – USA TODAY Sports
