This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze five key NHL players on the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Today’s six-game slate begins at 7 p.m.
Auston Matthews, Center, Maple Leafs
$8,000 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Matthews, who’s the top-rated center on the slate in the CSURAM88 Model, has a tremendous matchup tonight against Arizona. The Leafs have the highest Corsi-For rating on the slate and will dominate possession against the Coyotes, who have allowed 3.67 goals per game over the past month and are among the worst teams in the league in shots against per game with 32.7. These factors contribute to the Leafs’ slate-high team rating and are reflected in their implied total of 3.7. Matthews ranks second among centers on the slate in shots per game with 3.31 and hits on seven Pro Trends. Historically, players who average between 3.0 and 3.5 shots per game and have an implied team total of at least 3.7 have a +1.32 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a consistency rating of 62.5 percent.
Artemi Panarin, Winger, Blue Jackets
$6,100 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Buffalo sports teams have been in the holiday spirit for weeks now, giving fans of opposing teams plenty to cheer about. The Sabres have lost five straight games, and after yesterday’s Nathan Peterman debacle for the Bills, the scene in Buffalo is now among the biggest dumpster fires in all of sports. The Blue Jackets, which boast the second-highest team rating on the slate and an implied total of 3.1, are next in line to come out of Buffalo with a positive result. Panarin, the second-rated forward on the CSURAM88 Model for DraftKings, is among the top-players to target in this matchup. Despite a slow start to the season and a drastic dip in scoring, he has averaged 3.4 FPPG on DraftKings and 12.4 FPPG on FanDuel. Now, he is beginning to heat up, scoring goals in two of his past three games. He has also seen a spike in shot attempts, averaging 4.54 shots per game over the past month. Panarin will have the opportunity to continue his recent success tonight. The Blue Jackets are a possession team and make effective use of their time in the offensive zone, illustrated by their Corsi-For rating, which is the slate’s second highest for the past month. Combining that with Sabres’ complete ineptitude in their own zone gives you have plenty of reason to target Panarin tonight.
Roman Josi, Defenseman, Predators
$5,900 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Josi, the top rated player in the CSURAM88 Model for both sites, leads all players with 10 DraftKings ProTrends. He’s elite when it comes to peripheral stats and consistency, averaging 4.8 shots + blocks per game, while exceeding fantasy-based projections 60 percent of the time. Ranking in the 96th percentile in shots per game, Josi should have plenty of opportunities against a Jets team that has surrendered 33.7 on average. This game should be wide open as both Nashville and Winnipeg skate well and tend to push the pace offensively, averaging more than 3.4 goals per game over the past month.
John Carlson, Defenseman, Capitals
$5,800 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Carlson has been one of the most consistent players in the league over the past month due in large part to his spike in peripheral stats: He has averaged 5.0 shots + blocks per game. During that stretch (14 games), he has exceeded fantasy-based expectations 78.6 percent of the time while registering two goals and 13 points, seven of which have come on the power play. That’s relevant headed into tonight, when Carlson will face the league’s worst penalty kill. The Flames’ woeful numbers on the penalty kill contribute to their slate-high ranking in fantasy points against in the past month. If these trends continue tonight, Carlson could be in line for a huge game.
Braden Holtby, Goaltender, Capitals
$7,900 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
Holtby enters the slate as the third ranked goaltender in the CSURAM88 Model for DraftKings, where he has the highest bargain rating at 84 percent. He has won seven of his past eight starts, and he leads all of tonight’s favored starters in projected saves. The Flames’ Corsi-For rating for the past month is the highest on the slate, which increases the likelihood that Holtby will see a lot of shots. Given the fact that the Flames have allowed opposing goaltenders to a +3.0 DraftKings Plus/Minus this season, Holtby is worth a look tonight.
