It’s been over nine months since we saw Cameron Smith chase down Rory McIlroy at St. Andrews to claim the claret jug. After an offseason filled with controversy and LIV Golf vs. PGA TOUR, the golf world is yearning to witness another major championship where legacies can either blossom or deteriorate in front of our very eyes.
We return to Augusta National to play the Masters with excitement at a fever pitch. With three players, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy separating themselves as the clear favorites, bettors will have plenty of difficult decisions to make.
Another interesting factor this year is the fact that some changes have been made to the course. The par-five 13th (Azalea) was lengthened by 35 yards and now measures 545 yards and will now play more difficult than in years past after golfers have already faced the incredibly tough stretch of 10-12.
Augusta National is now a 7,510-yard par-72 with lightning-fast Bentgrass greens. The course’s primary defenses are the contoured greens, swirling crosswinds, the topography of the course, which creates uneven lies, and the small landing areas that golfers will need to hit to avoid tight run-off areas around the greens.
For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Approach is historically the most important statistic at Augusta National. The sloping, speedy greens and run-off areas create small landing spots that can be difficult to hit.
In the six seasons prior to 2022, the golfers who led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach for the week finished first, first, second, third, first, and first. Distance helps, but Augusta National is a second-shot golf course.
Last year, Kevin Na led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and finished 14th. Cameron Smith was second in approach and finished 3rd.
- High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — $11,100 (4th SG: Approach)
- Mid-range target: Tony Finau — $8,900 (3rd SG: Approach)
- Value target: Tom Hoge — $6,900 (1st SG: Approach)
Course History
More so than any other course on TOUR, knowing your way around Augusta National is crucial. Only one player has ever won the Masters on their first try — Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Meanwhile, there are 17 golfers in history who have multiple green jackets.
In most cases, the Masters champion has shown some good form at Augusta in the past. Prior to Scottie Scheffler’s 2022 victory, he’d finished T19 and T18 in his first two trips to the course.
- High-end target: Jon Rahm — $10,800 (2nd SG: Total at Augusta National)
- Mid-range target: Dustin Johnson — $8,800 (1st SG: Total at Augusta National)
- Value target: Patrick Reed — $7,300 (12th SG: Total at Augusta National)
Strokes Gained: Par 4
Since plenty of players can reach the par 5s at Augusta in two (with the new 13th possibly being an exception depending on strategy), par-4 scoring becomes more important. The golfer who separates themselves on the par 4s will be able to gain ground on the field.
- High-end target: Justin Thomas — $10,300 (1st Strokes Gained: Par 4)
- Mid-range target: Louis Oosthuizen — $8,900 (8th Strokes Gained: Par 4)
- Value target: Brian Harman — $6,800 (3rd Strokes Gained: Par 4)
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Golfers with a solid short game tend to fare well at Augusta National. The run-off areas are treacherous, and players will often be scrambling to get up and down.
The majority of players who have won at Augusta National have a great short game and have shown a consistent ability to get up and down from tough spots.
- High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — $11,100 (8th Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green)
- Mid-range target: Tommy Fleetwood — $7,700 (2nd Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green)
- Value target: Patrick Reed — $7,300 (13th Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass/Lightning
The USGA calculates that on average, the greens at Augusta National are the fastest greens in the country. Three-putting is fairly common at Augusta, and golfers must be able to combat the speed of the greens with effective lag putting.
- High-end target: Cameron Smith — $9,800 (9th Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass/Lightning)
- Mid-range target: Jason Day— $8,700 (9th Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass/Lightning)
- Value target: Si Woo Kim — $7,400 (14th Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass/Lightning)
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