It’s been almost nine months since we’ve last had a major championship played in golf. After a jam-packed season with six majors played in 2021, that nine months has felt like a lifetime.
We return to Augusta National to play the Masters with excitement arguable at an all-time high. The first item that must be mentioned is the surprise inclusion of Tiger Woods in the field. Just a few weeks ago, most people would have thought the chances of the 15-time major champion playing this week would be slim to none. It will be captivating to see what Tiger can do at a course he loves when he hasn’t played professional golf in well over a year.
Another interesting factor this year is the fact that some changes have been made to the course for the 2022 Masters. One of the biggest changes has been made to the 11th hole. The 11th tee has been moved back and left by about 15 yards. The hole now measures 520 yards, which is longer than the par-5 13th.
The par-5 15th hole has also been altered. A new tee box was added to stretch the hole’s length to 550 yards.
Augusta National is now a 7,510-yard par 72 with lightning-fast bentgrass greens. The course’s primary defenses are the contoured greens, swirling crosswinds, the topography of the course which creates uneven lies and the small landing areas that golfers will need to hit to avoid tight run-off areas around the greens.
For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Approach is historically the most important statistic at Augusta National. The sloping, speedy greens and run-off areas create small landing spots that can be difficult to hit.
In the past six years, the golfers who led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach for the week finished first, first, second, third, first, and first. Distance helps, but Augusta National is a second-shot golf course.
- High-end target: Viktor Hovland — $10,100 (2nd SG: Approach)
- Mid-range target: Russell Henley— $7,800 (3rd SG: Approach)
- Value target: Erik van Rooyen— $6,700 (10th SG: Approach)
Course History
More so than any other course on TOUR, knowing your way around Augusta National is crucial. Only one player has ever won the Masters on their first try — Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Meanwhile, there are 17 golfers in history who have multiple green jackets.
In most cases, the Masters champion has shown some good form at Augusta in the past.
- High-end target: Jon Rahm — $10,800 (2nd SG: Total at Augusta National)
- Mid-range target: Justin Rose— $7,500 (4th SG: Total at Augusta National)
- Value target: Lee Westwood — $6,900 (15th SG: Total at Augusta National)
Strokes Gained: Par 4
Since plenty of players can reach the par 5s at Augusta in two, par-4 scoring becomes more important. The golfer who separates themselves on the par 4s will be able to gain ground on the field.
- High-end target: Justin Thomas— $10,300 (1st Strokes Gained: Par 4)
- Mid-range target: Louis Oosthuizen— $8,900 (8th Strokes Gained: Par 4)
- Value target: Brian Harman— $6,800 (3rd Strokes Gained: Par 4)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Golfers with a solid short game tend to fare well at Augusta National. The run-off areas are treacherous, and players will often be scrambling to get up and down.
The majority of players who have won at Augusta National have a great short game and have shown consistent ability to get up and down from tough spots.
- High-end target: Rory McIlroy— $10,000 (5th Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green)
- Mid-range target: Louis Oosthuizen— $8,900 (6th Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green)
- Value target: Luke List— $7,000 (3rd Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass/Lightning
I expect the greens to be faster in the spring than they were in the fall. The USGA calculates that, on average, they’re the fastest greens in the country. Three putting is fairly common at Augusta, and golfers must be able to combat the speed of the greens with effective lag putting.
- High-end target: Cameron Smith — $9,900 (7th Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass/Lightning)
- Mid-range target: Justin Rose— $7,500 (6th Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass/Lightning)
- Value target: Kevin Kisner — $6,800 (12th Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass/Lightning)
