There are only 16 teams left vying for the National Championship, and eight of those are in action on Thursday night. The schedule is highlighted by a rematch of last year’s championship tilt between the UConn Huskies and San Diego State Aztecs. Still, there are a pair of #2 seeds and another #1 featured in the other three contests. With some close spreads and gargantuan totals, tonight’s slate guarantees to live up to its namesake and deliver some madness.
This article will discuss 2-5 of my favorite pick’ems from DFS sites like PrizePicks. Check out our PrizePicks referral code for more details.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are.
March Madness PrizePicks Predictions Today
Marcus Domask Lower 15 Points
We’re starting with the evening’s nightcap for our first play, looking at the Illinois Fighting Illini and Iowa State Cyclones showdown at TD Garden in Boston. Illinois enters the contest as short +1.5 underdogs, with the total hovering around 146.5. The Fighting Illini might need to replace some of Marcus Domask’s contributions as the swingman is spiraling toward a letdown.
Domask has been critical to Illinois’ success this season and in tournament play, but he’s reached a tipping point with some of his recent efforts. Over his last three games, the senior is scoring on 53.7% of his shots, including a 72.7% performance in the Big 10 Championship Game and 57.1% from range. However, that puts him 8% ahead of his season-long benchmark in shooting percentage and 27.3% above his normal three-point percentage.
Playing against inferior competition could be contributing to Domask’s inflated standing. Illinois has taken on the Wisconsin Badgers, Morehead State Eagles, and Duquesne Dukes over that three-game sample. They’ll face a much stiffer challenge against the Cyclones and their NCAA-leading defense.
Inevitably, Domask’s shooting percentages will come back down toward normal range, reducing scoring with it. And we’re betting that Iowa State will play a role in that anticipated regression. Consequently, we’re betting that Domask falls below 15 points in the Sweet Sixteen.
Lamont Butler Lower 12.5 Points + Assists
The most anticipated contest of the Sweet Sixteen pits the defending National Champion UConn Huskies against the runner-up San Diego State Aztecs. This East Region matchup has the lowest total on the board on Thursday night, implying that it could be a defensive struggle. That plays into Lamont Butler’s strengths but will also prevent him from eclipsing some of his projections. Most notably, we expect him to fall below his points + assists offering.
Butler isn’t renowned for his offensive profile. The Aztecs guard is a primary cog in their defensive structure and a primary distributor of the ball, but a secondary option in scoring. His 9.4 points per game rank third on the team, and he’s come in below that number in two of his past three.
This diminished output is multi-factorial. Butler’s usage is down; he totaled just 22 minutes against the Yale Bulldogs in the second round, and that’s having an impact on his shot volume. The senior is averaging just 8.8 shots per game over his last five, including just 7.5 in two NCAA Tournament games.
Those offensive inefficiencies will be compounded by playing against an unrelenting UConn defense. The Huskies have the eighth-best unit in adjusted defensive efficiency, limiting their last three opponents to 58 points or fewer. Butler will be one of the latest guards to fall victim, coming in below 12.5 points + assists.
PJ Hall Lower 5.5 Rebounds
The Clemson Tigers face one of the most daunting challenges on Thursday night. The West Region #6 seed needs to find a way to slow down the Arizona Wildcats. Unfortunately for Clemson, their top scorer will be of little help on the glass, as PJ Hall will be outmatched by Oumar Ballo.
It’s not just a tough matchup that’s working against Hall. We’ve seen a decrease in the big man’s underlying metrics and overall productivity over the last few outings. Hall hasn’t surpassed three rebounds in any of his previous four contests while totaling just 25 points in two tournament games.
Zona is a tough team to match up against on the glass. The Wildcats have been out-rebounded only once over their last 12 contests, and with Ballo and Keshad Johnson operating at optimum levels, that trend is not likely to change in the Sweet Sixteen.
The Tigers have been buoyed by other players, but Hall isn’t one of them. We’re expecting that slump to continue against Arizona, with Hall coming in below his rebounds projection.
Mark Sears Higher 26.5 Points + Assists
Our final play comes in what’s expected to be the highest-scoring contest of the evening. The top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Alabama Crimson Tide at Crypto.com Arena with a hefty total of 173.5. Surely, more than a few players will exceed their player projections in this one.
One player that immediately comes to mind is Crimson Tide, Mark Sears. The Alabama native has scored at will this season, averaging 21.5 points per game on 50.7% shooting. But he’s found a sixth gear in crunch time, blowing through those totals over the past few weeks.
Sears has been firing on all cylinders in the big dance. He’s averaging 28.0 points per game 54.8% shooting, including 47.1% from three-point range. Pointing the lens further back reveals a more sustainable trajectory, as Sears is up to 51.9 over his last seven, shooting 50.0% from the field.
Increased usage and shot volume validate Sears’ current production. Moreover, Alabama is going to feed the hot hand as they look to continue their Cinderella run against one of the top teams in the tourney.
Sears’ points + assists and points + rebounds are listed at an identical 26.5. Coming off an inflated rebound total against the Grand Canyon Antelopes, we expect Sears’ rebound total to plummet against North Carolina. But he’s been a lot more consistent with dishing the ball. As a result, we’re betting he goes higher than his points + assists total.
Editor’s note: Looking for more apps like PrizePicks? Check out our Sleeper Fantasy promo code.
