No sporting event matches the magnitude and intensity of March Madness. Sixty-eight teams descend on their respective regions, looking to survive the war of attrition that is known as the NCAA Tournament. Of course, the field has already been whittled down to the top 64 teams, meaning we are just six rounds away from crowning the next National Champions. But that’s getting ahead of ourselves. We’re focused on Day 1 of the tourney, eagerly identifying entry points in the pick’em market.
This article will discuss 2-5 of my favorite pick’ems from DFS sites like PrizePicks. Check out our PrizePicks referral code for more details.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are.
March Madness PrizePicks Predictions Today
DQ Cole Higher 3.5 Rebounds
For the first time since 2011, the Oakland Golden Grizzlies return to the NCAA Tournament. Oakland triumphed over the Horizon League, earning an automatic bid into the big dance. They enter Thursday’s action as a #14 seed, taking on the Kentucky Wildcats as meaty +13.5 underdogs.
Playing as underdogs is an unfamiliar position for the Golden Grizzlies. Prior to the opening round, Oakland had been the betting favorites in eight straight games. But irrespective of underdog status, we expect DQ Cole to be at his best when his team needs him most.
Cole has been a complementary guard out of Oakland’s backcourt, playing second fiddle to Trey Townsend. Still, Cole does a little bit of everything right, averaging 8.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game. More importantly, he can use all of his 6’3″ frame to bang on the glass against an inferior rebounding Wildcats side.
Timing is everything, and the Golden Grizzlies’ junior guard has elevated his play in the latter part of the campaign. Over his last nine games, Cole is averaging 4.6 rebounds per game, including eight over his last two games.
Although it’s tempting to take Cole to exceed his points or points+rebounds projection, our most prominent advantage lies in taking Cole to eclipse 3.5 rebounds. Kentucky is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the tourney, meaning there will be plenty for Cole to mop up in the Golden Grizzlies’ half of the court. On that basis, we’re taking Cole to go higher than 3.5 rebounds.
Tahron Allen Higher 5.5 Rebounds+Assists
From one lesser-known team to another. We’re digging into Tahron Allen’s potential as his #16 Wagner Seahawks try to up-end the mighty North Carolina Tar Heels in Round 1. Allen has been a noteworthy presence for the Seahawks, but the best value lies in backing him to go higher than 5.5 rebounds + assists.
Wagner doesn’t get to boast about many accomplishments, but Allen gets to take credit for a lot of the positives. The junior guard has been integral to the Seahawks’ schemes, ranking second in team scoring and rebounds while still contributing the occasional dime.
There are some reachable totals on the board for Allen, but his best chance of exceeding his player projection is expecting him to go higher than 5.5 rebounds + assists. Allen has surpassed that benchmark in three of his previous five outings, landing directly on five rebounds + assists in the other two contests.
Those rebounds + assists numbers could be further inflated by virtue of Allen taking on a more significant role against the top-seeded Tar Heels. Allen is a regular in Wagner’s rotations, averaging the second-most minutes and usage on the team. Against an opponent like North Carolina, he could be asked to test the upper limits of his on-court time.
This is another friendly entry point, albeit from a less well-known standpoint. Allen’s presumed contributions are diminished as a result of taking on a secondary role behind Melvin Council. Still, he’s proven his worth time after time, and there’s value in backing Allen to go north of 5.5 rebounds + assists.
Keshad Johnson Higher 13.5 Points+Assists
Caleb Love demands a lot of attention every time he steps on the court. He leads the Arizona Wildcats in scoring while ranking third in assists and rebounds. One of the unintended consequences of Love’s elite efforts is creating more space for other Wildcats shooters. Among those stands Keshad Johnson, who is poised to eclipse his points + assists projection.
Johnson tragically underperformed in the Pac-12 conference tournament. Across two games, Johnson totaled just 13 points and four assists. However, those boxscores were the anomaly to an otherwise successful end of the season.
Over his last seven regular season games, Johnson scored 10 or more points in all but one of those. Additionally, he was in a giving mood, dropping multiple assists in five of seven. Altogether, the 6’7″ forward averaged 13.9 points and 2.6 assists across the seven-game sample. That put him ahead of his regular season benchmarks in both categories and well ahead of his total against the Long Beach State 49ers.
Johnson is the ideal buy-low candidate on Thursday. Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd will be looking to build Johnson’s confidence as the Wildcats look to shed their reputation as an underperforming tournament team. This is Johnson’s opportunity to reverse course, and we expect him to make the most of it.
Kerwin Walton Higher 8.5 Points
The Texas Tech Red Raiders have cemented themselves as one of the top offensive teams in the country, and that’s reflected in their opening-round total. The Red Raiders enter Thursday’s showdown against the NC State Wolfpack as -4.5 chalk, with the total hovering around 145.5. One player you should keep in mind to do his part to push this contest higher than the total is Kerwin Walton.
We’ve seen Walton bite off a meatier part of the workload more recently. The senior has played 33 or more minutes in three straight outings, an upward trajectory that should continue as Texas Tech wades into tournament play.
Walton has set himself apart as Texas Tech’s pre-eminent three-point shooter. His 47% shooting percentage from distance leads the team, and he’s recorded at least four attempts in 10 of his last 11 outings. As expected, that puts Walton at 9.3 points per game across that sample.
The added layer that benefits Walton is NC State’s inability to defend the three-ball. The Wolfpack sits 243rd in the country, letting opponents drain 34.8% of shots from beyond the arc.
This could end up being the highest-scoring game of the day, giving Walton ample opportunity to eclipse 8.5 points. As a senior, this is his last kick at the can, and we don’t expect Walton to let the Red Raiders down. Look for him to play a steadying role for Texas Tech, surpassing 8.5 points.
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