We have crossed the threshold of madness and entered into insanity territory. Two more underdogs pulled off stunning upsets in the Sweet Sixteen, busting brackets and setting us up for an exciting Elite Eight on Saturday and Sunday. The East and West Region Finals go on Saturday, pitting the UConn Huskies against the Illinois Fighting Illini as -8.5 and the Alabama Crimson Tide versus the Clemson Tigers as -3.5 faves. The way things are going, Clemson and Illinois have to like their chances.
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March Madness PrizePicks Predictions Today
Mark Sears Higher 2.5 Three-Pointers
It was an uncharacteristically tepid performance from Mark Sears in the Sweet Sixteen. Alabama’s top scorer was held to 18 points, below his season-long average of 21.4 and even further off his seven-game rolling average of 24.6. A downturn in three-point shooting was a part of the erosion, but Sears is poised for a bounce-back effort against the Tigers.
In Thursday’s nail-biting victory over the North Carolina Tar Heels, Sears went 2-for-7 from range, reversing a recent upswing in three-point production. Across the five games prior, the Crimson Tide guard went 15-for-34 from beyond the arc for a tidy 44.1% shooting percentage. Moreover, he eclipsed 2.5 threes in all but one of those contests.
Although they’ve been proficient more recently, Clemson hasn’t excelled at defending the three. Opponents are scoring on 32.6% of three-point shots, putting the Tigers outside the top 100.
When 18 points is a disappointing effort, you know you’ve set the bar high. But that is exactly the expectations placed on Sears as the Crimson Tide look to continue their championship run. We’re expecting a more effective performance from the senior, with Sears exceeding 2.5 threes.
PJ Hall Lower 16.5 Points
Alabama’s chances of extending its run to the Final Four are amplified by containing Clemson’s top scorer, PJ Hall. But unfortunately for the Bama faithful, our analysis supports that Hall is due for an improved performance in the Elite Eight.
Hall’s scoring has taken a hit in the tournament. The 6’10” big man is averaging 14.0 points per game in tournament play, below his season-long benchmark of 18.4. However, after a couple of flat efforts through the first two rounds of the tourney, we’re expecting Hall to build off his 17-point effort from the Sweet Sixteen.
Hall’s scoring and efficiency have fallen in the big dance, but he showed green sprouts last time out. The senior went 7-for-15 from the field, setting a new high mark from the field in tournament play.
Additionally, the Crimson Tide are one of the worst defensive teams left standing. Their 102.5 adjusted defensive efficiency rating drops them to 102 in the country, and the last four opponents they’ve faced have combined for 146 points in the paint, or 36.5 points per game.
Hall will generously exploit those vulnerabilities as he continues his ascent back into normal scoring range.
Stephon Castle Lower 11.5 Points
You’d be forgiven for overlooking Stephon Castle in the UConn Huskies lineup. In his freshman season, Castle has been deployed primarily as a secondary, if not tertiary, scoring option. Although he had a dominant effort in the Sweet Sixteen, he’s poised for regression against the Fighting Illini.
Castle went above and beyond in the third round. The Georgia native went 5-for-8 from the field, scoring a tournament-high 16, adding 11 rebounds and two assists for his first double-double of his career. As inspired as it was, the effort was a deviation from the expected, putting Castle on the fast path with regression.
Over the course of the season, Castle was averaging 10.9 points per game and 47.7% shooting. Still, he’s had a hard time adapting to the increased intensity of the postseason. Since the start of the Big East tournament, Castle is down to 9.9 points per game and moderately decreased usage.
We’re not expecting Castle to match his performance from the last round. Diminished scoring and usage will only become more pronounced the further UConn progresses in the tournament.
Quincy Guerrier Higher 0.5 Three-Pointers
We are showing some love to a Canadian hooper with our final play, highlighting Quincy Guerrier to go north of 0.5 three-pointers against the Huskies. The Montreal native has been a stalwart in Illinois’ starting lineup and will have additional opportunities from distance on Saturday.
Like the aforementioned Castle, Guerrier has been deployed as a supporting piece. Still, he’s delivered when called upon, especially from three-point range. Since January 24, over 50.0% of his shot attempts have come from beyond the arc, and Guerrier’s been effective at making those opportunities count. Over that stretch, the senior is nailing 46.0% of attempts, recording a triple in all but four of those outings.
There’s a bit of a contrarian angle to this offering, but Guerrier is a progression candidate. He’s gone just 1-for-5 since the start of the NCAA Tournament, failing to hit in two of the three outings. Nevertheless, he’s fallen outside of expected production, and we should see an increase in scoring in the Elite Eight.
While UConn is focusing its efforts on slowing down Terrence Shannon and Marcus Domask, Guerrier can quietly have himself a game.
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