The field has been cut down to 32 teams, and we are officially onto Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament. Friday featured a plethora of high-scoring affairs, punctuated by two contests eclipsing 200 points. Saturday’s schedule features more modest totals than we saw on the second day of the tournament, which is a trajectory we should expect as the stakes continue to rise. Still, there are many profitable in-roads bettors can look for in the pick’em market.
This article will discuss 2-5 of my favorite pick’ems from DFS sites like PrizePicks. Check out our PrizePicks referral code for more details.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are.
March Madness PrizePicks Predictions Today
Chendall Weaver Lower 11.5 Points + Rebounds
The Texas Longhorns made short work of the Colorado State Rams in the opening round. Texas staked itself to a 27-11 first-half lead and never looked back. They’ll face a more sincere challenge in the Round of 32, taking on the #2 Tennessee Volunteers as +6.5 underdogs. Consequently, we’re betting Longhorns guard Chendall Weaver falls below 11.5 points + rebounds.
Weaver has played a supporting role all season for the Longhorns. The Sophomore averages a little over 18 minutes per game, parlaying that court time into a modest 6.0 points and 3.0 rebounds per game. Moreover, he’s taken on more of a reserve role in the tournament phase of the season, reducing his impact on the outcomes.
Granted, Weaver dropped 11 points in the Round 1 victory over the Rams; however, that was the exception to the late-season rule. The Longhorns guard shot 71.4% from the field, adding four rebounds. It’s worth noting that was the first time in four games that Weaver had eclipsed 11.5 points + rebounds.
Tennessee is one of the top defenses in the nation, further diminishing Weaver’s ceiling. The Volunteers have the third-ranked adjusted defense, limiting opponents to 90.9 points per 100 possessions.
Weaver has struggled against worse opponents than Tennessee lately. We’re anticipating quick regression from the sophomore in Round 2, with Texas getting outclassed by the Volunteers.
Baylor Scheierman Higher 27.5 Points + Rebounds
The heartbreak of last year’s exit has only fueled Baylor Scheierman and the Creighton Bluejays in this year’s edition. Led by its senior guard, Creighton trounced the Akron Zips in the first round, setting up a clash with the Oregon Ducks in Round 2. As was the case on Thursday, we’re expecting Scheierman to be an integral part of the Bluejays’ game plan.
The Nebraska native was sensational against the Zips. Scheierman shot 6-for-10 from the floor, including 3-for-5 from range, en route to 15 points and 13 rebounds. Improved efficiency is driving Scheierman’s efforts, as he’s shot 50.0% or better in five of his last eight.
Scheierman is poised to continue that onslaught against the defensively inferior Oregon Ducks. The #11 seeded Ducks rank 68th in adjusted defensive efficiency, getting burned for an average of 71.9 points per game. Surely, those metrics will tumble further against the offensively gifted Bluejays.
Scheierman is Creighton’s offensive catalyst, and they continue to turn to their floor general in crunch time. More importantly, he’s responded with elite performances. We’re expecting Scheierman to maintain that form, surpassing 27.5 points + rebounds on Saturday.
Anton Watson Higher 6.5 Rebounds
Success didn’t come as naturally for the Gonzaga Bulldogs this season. The perennial WCC contenders needed to mount a late-season charge to move up the standings but still came up short against the St. Mary’s Gaels in the conference championship. Undeterred, Anton Watson and the Bulldogs punched their tickets to the second round, where they will take on the Kansas Jayhawks.
Somewhat surprisingly, the lower-ranked Bulldogs enter the Round of 32 showdown as the the betting chalk. Gonzaga is priced as -4.5, thanks, at least in part, to Watson’s contributions on both ends of the court. The Bulldogs forward has been superb, averaging 14.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game.
Still, we’ve seen Watson ratchet those benchmarks higher since tournament play began. Over his last three contests, Watson is averaging 16.0 points and 9.0 rebounds per game while playing 36.6 minutes per game.
Increased usage and efficiency benefits Watson and the Bulldogs on Saturday. Clearly, the betting market has taken note of Gonzaga’s improved play, but there’s still a profitable edge to exploit in taking Watson to eclipse some of his projections. You might not be wrong for taking Watson to exceed his points + rebounds total, but the most bettor-friendly edge comes from backing him to go north of 6.5 rebounds.
Koby Brea Higher 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
The most impressive comeback from the first round was the Dayton Flyers’ 63-60 triumph over the Nevada Wolf Pack. Down 15 with less than ten minutes to play, Dayton stormed back to steal victory from the clenches of defeat. Koby Brea was a driving force in the come-from-behind win, and he’ll be looking to maximize his contributions again on Saturday versus the Arizona Wildcats.
They should call Brea the light switch the way he shoots out the lights. The junior went 5-for-8 from beyond the arc on Thursday, totaling 15 points on 62.5% shooting. Dialing it in from long distance has been Brea’s MO, as he’s attempted at least six three-pointers in six of his last seven outings. Moreover, he’s recorded at least three buckets in all but two of those contests.
The Flyers are prioritizing those looks for Brea, as he’s the nation’s top marksman from range. Brea’s 49.7% three-point shooting percentage puts him nearly 5% higher than the next closest player, while his 3.0 three-pointers made per game are tied for 26th in the NCAA ranks and put him just 0.8 off the lead.
Arizona’s a formidable opponent, but they haven’t been great at containing opponents from distance. The Wildcats allow a 33.1% opponent three-point shooting percentage, inflating to 34.1% outside of their friendly confines.
Brea’s three-point shooting could be relied on more heavily against the Wildcats. Presumably, as +9.5 dogs, Dayton will be playing from behind for most of the contest. That could necessitate more involvement from Brea as the Flyers try to keep things close in Round 2. Irrespective of the game script, though, we still like him to surpass 2.5 three-pointers made.
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