The excitement is palpable. After four painstaking rounds, we are down to the Final Four, awaiting the coronation of the soon-to-be National Champions. Saturday’s action tips off at 6:09 pm ET with a clash between Purdue Boilermakers and North Carolina State Wolfpack. Following that, the defending National Champion UConn Huskies take on the Alabama Crimson Tide, one of the top offensive teams in the college basketball world. Crazily, one of these four programs will emerge as the best of the best, and we’ll be glued to our TVs until that moment arrives.
This article will discuss 2-5 of my favorite pick’ems from DFS sites like PrizePicks. Check out our PrizePicks referral code for more details.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are.
March Madness PrizePicks Predictions Today
Zach Edey Higher 42.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
What more can be said about Zach Edey? The Boilermakers big man has been an absolute force throughout the tournament, coming off the best game of his collegiate career. And with the stakes even higher and an inferior opponent awaiting, we expect Edey to put forth another sensational effort in the Final Four.
There was no stopping the Canadian center in the Elite Eight. Edey dropped 40 points against the Tennessee Volunteers, adding 16 rebounds and a lone assist before the night was over. That performance brought his tournament averages up to 30.0 points and 16.3 rebounds.
However, it’s worth noting that the improved scoring came on decreased efficiency from the field. Edey shot 61.3% from the floor, his lowest shooting percentage of March Madness. If he can maximize his shooting percentage while maintaining his volume, we could see Edey reach a whole other stratosphere against the Wolfpack.
We’ve seen other teams expose NC State in the paint, and that’s without someone as dominant as Edey. He will be a priority for Purdue and should soar again on Saturday. We’re expecting Edey to eclipse 42.5 points + rebounds + assists when the dust settles on this one.
Mohamed Diarra Higher 20 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Thankfully for the NC State faithful, the Wolfpack can fight fire with fire at State Farm Stadium in Phoenix. Mohamed Diarra has been an integral, albeit often overlooked, part of the team’s success this season. He will have an opportunity to shine as a complementary piece versus Purdue.
Diarra does a little bit of everything right. The Frenchman can score, dish the ball, and stacks up well defensively, but his most prominent contributions come on the boards. That’s been even more evident in the NCAA Tournament.
Since the tourney began, Diarra has been unstoppable on the glass. He’s averaging 11.8 rebounds per game, above his regular season average of 7.8. More impressively, the senior has surpassed 12 rebounds in three of those four outings while also seeing a boost in scoring. Diarra is up to 10.5 points per game, over a 4.0 boost from his regular season average.
Moreover, Diarra is a natural progression candidate coming off a depressed effort in the Elite Eight. He shot just 1-for-6 from the field, yielding three points to go along with just seven rebounds. All of which puts him outside of normal ranges. Look for an improved effort in the Final Four.
Even though he has to compete against Edey, we anticipate Diarra will be up to the challenge. He could easily soar higher than his 20 points + rebounds + assists total.
Aaron Estrada Higher 10.5 Rebounds + Assists
Before the field was set or the tournament began, pundits were knocking Alabama’s chances of competing for the National Championship. Defense was the most glaring weakness everyone would point to, and yet here they are in the Final Four, proving everyone wrong. Their biggest challenge lies ahead, but Aaron Estrada and the rest of the Crimson Tide will be ready for anything the Huskies throw at them.
Although Mark Sears gets the lion’s share of fanfare, Estrada has been a catalyst for Alabama all season. His 4.7 assists per game lead the team, but he also ranks second in scoring (13.4 points) and rebounds (5.5).
Although consistency has limited in scoring production. Estrada’s rebounds and assists benchmark have been on the rise in the big dance. Over his last four outings, Estrada is up to 7.3 rebounds and 5.5 assists, highlighting his ability to adapt his game when buckets aren’t dropping and remaining a top contributor.
It’s tough to gauge whether Estrada will snap out of his scoring slump, but we expect him to make his presence felt no matter what. Our preferred entry point in backing Estrada is taking him to go north of 10.5 rebounds and assists.
Alex Karaban Lower 20 Points + Rebounds + Assists
There is no shortage of contributors on UConn’s roster. All five of their starters average more than 10.0 points per game, finding ways to contribute with rebounds, assists, or other sometimes immeasurable facets of the game. While that approach has undoubtedly improved their National Championship aspirations, it has limited some players’ ceilings in the player pick’em market. Specifically, we’re looking at Alex Karaban’s pick’ems ahead of Saturday’s clash versus Bama.
Karaban was a reliable contributor throughout the regular season, seemingly hitting a wall in crunch time. His metrics have taken a hit across the board, a downward trajectory that could be extended against the high-paced Crimson Tide.
All of the Huskies forward’s stats have dipped since the conference tournaments started. Across that seven-game sample, Karaban is down to 10.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.1 assists, below his respective regular season averages of 13.5, 4.9, and 1.4.
Sadly, we don’t see room for improvement in the Final Four. With a plethora of players to choose from, UConn will spread the ball out to the hot hand rather than force the issue with Karaban and his deteriorating play. That’s not to say he won’t make an impact for the Huskies, but we don’t expect Karaban to do enough to eclipse 20 points + rebounds + assists.
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