A chalky second round robbed us of our craving for upsets, but the madness returned on Thursday night. Three of the first four teams to advance to the Elite Eight cashed as substantive underdogs in the Sweet Sixteen. With four more matchups to look forward to on Friday night, we’re hoping for more of the same. Tonight’s schedule is highlighted by a pair of #1 seeds, some marquee programs, and what’s expected to be an instant classic nightcap.
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March Madness PrizePicks Predictions Today
Kyle Filipowski Lower 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
The Duke Blue Devils have yet to be truly tested in the NCAA Tournament. The blueblood program had a relatively unobstructed path to the Sweet Sixteen. First, they got past the Vermont Catamounts 64-47 as -12.5 chalk, following that up with a convincing 93-55 thrashing of the James Madison Dukes as -6 favorites. Thankfully, they have a team full of top contributors to lean on, as Kyle Filipowski has been noticeably absent from the Blue Devils’ offense.
You wouldn’t know it from his last two appearances, but Filipowski is Duke’s top scorer. His 16.6 points and 8.2 rebounds per game lead the team, but he also chips in with 2.9 dimes. However, Filipowski’s scoring efforts have taken a significant hit against some inferior opponents.
Through two tournament games, Filipowski is averaging just 8.5 points per game. The sophomore had just one registered field goal attempt in the opening round, with all three of his points coming from the charity stripe. He followed that up with a 14-point effort against the Dukes, but it came at the expense of his peripheral stats. Filipowski totaled just five rebounds and four assists, albeit while playing just 21 minutes.
Although he rebounded with a more sincere effort in the Round of 32, Filipowski has yet to put together a robust performance in the big dance. Worse, we’re not expecting that to change against one of the top defensive teams in the country. Even with an improved performance, we don’t think Filipowski can do enough to surpass 27.5 points + rebounds + assists.
Mohamed Diarra Higher 0.5 Three-Pointers
Every year one team captivates the nation, earning their laudation and admiration. This year, the shoe fits on the North Carolina State Wolfpack. NC State has rolled through the first two rounds of the tourney, securing marquee wins over the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Oakland Golden Grizzlies. It’s been a true team effort, with multiple players stepping up to make clutch plays.
Among those, we’ll find Mohamed Diarra. The Wolfpack big man isn’t the team’s best offensive weapon, but he deserves credit for doing a little bit of everything right. In the first round, Diarra dropped 17 points, 12 rebounds, one assist, and two blocks. He followed that up with yet another double-double against Oakland, adding two assists, three blocks, and a steal.
The most unassuming part of Diarra’s game is his ability and frequency of taking shots from distance. Coming into the Sweet Sixteen, the 6’10” junior has threes in five straight games. Moreover, he’s averaging 3.0 three-pointers per game across that stretch.
The Marquette Golden Eagles’ run to the Sweet Sixteen is premised on balanced play. Still, one of the chink’s in their defensive armor is their ability to defend the three. Over the course of the season, Marquette is allowing opponents to shoot 33.6% from range, putting them 156th in the country.
For everyone’s sake, we hope the Wolfpack’s run continues onto the Elite Eight. But even if it doesn’t, we expect Diarra to sustain his top-end efforts and drain at least one three-ball against the Golden Eagles.
Ryan Kalkbrenner Higher 9 Rebounds + Assists
The Creighton Bluejays and Tennessee Volunteers conclude Friday’s four-game slate with a late tip-off at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit. The Bluejays are coming off an emotional double-overtime win versus the Oregon Ducks, with Ryan Kalkbrenner once again figuring as one of the prominent contributors. We’re expecting that trend to continue in Round 3.
The Bluejays center has been a force on both ends of the court, but his most significant contributions come on the glass. Kalkbrenner’s 7.6 rebounds per game rank second on the team; however, he’s leveled up his play in crunch time. Over the last three games, the big man has totaled 44 rebounds, hitting double-digits in two of those three outings. Arguably, Kalkbrenner’s biggest impact comes on the opponent’s backboard, as he’s averaging 3.0 offensive rebounds per game over his last five.
Kalkbrenner could easily surpass his rebounds + assists total with boards alone, but he’s also been a consistent distributor. He has assists in four straight while averaging 1.8 per game over his previous 12 outings.
The Tennessee Volunteers are a fierce defensive squad, but they get hammered in their own end, giving up 9.2 offensive rebounds per game. That tilts the balance far enough in Kalkbrenner’s favor that we expect him to go north of 9.0 rebounds + assists.
Ryan Nembhard Lower 20.5 Points + Assists
We’re completing the superfecta, highlighting our preferred play from the last remaining contest. After a slow start to the season, the Gonzaga Bulldogs have ramped up their efforts over the latter part of the campaign. But they will face their sternest test with Friday’s battle against the Purdue Boilermakers.
As usual, the Bulldogs have a plethora of scoring hands to rely on. Consequently, the workload for Ryan Nemhard has been diminished in the NCAA Tournament. Nembhard has totaled a paltry 13 points in two contests, correlating with fewer shots. Less production has been met with decreased efficiency, with Nembhard going just 3-for-13 from the field.
Even with natural progression, we don’t think Nembhard can do enough to exceed his points + assists total against Purdue. The Boilermakers have been effective at shutting down opponent scoring, holding three of their past four opponents to 67 points or fewer.
We’re betting Nembhard’s downward trajectory continues at least one more game, with the Bulldogs’ guard falling below 20.5 points + assists.
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