The unrelenting action of the NCAA Tournament opening rounds continues on Friday. The first round concludes with another jam-packed schedule featuring some of the top-rated teams in the tournament. The Houston Cougars take on the Longwood Lancers as -24.5 chalk while the defending champion and presumptive favorite UConn Huskies battle it out with the Stetson Hatters. Surely, those contests and more will live up to the excitement of Day 1.
This article will discuss 2-5 of my favorite pick’ems from DFS sites like PrizePicks. Check out our PrizePicks referral code for more details.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are.
March Madness PrizePicks Predictions Today
Nick Fiorillo Higher 11 Points + Rebounds
The Vermont Catamounts face one of the more daunting challenges on Day 2. The 13th-seeded Catamounts are tasked with taking down a true college blueblood, trying to escape a first-round matchup with the Duke Blue Devils as +12.5 underdogs. Pulling off the upset becomes more manageable if they can extract maximum value from Nick Fiorillo.
Fiorillo has saved his best for last. The senior big man has recorded double-digit scoring in each of his last two games, adding nine total rebounds over that stretch. That improved play correlates with a more robust workload, as Fiorillo has exceeded 33 minutes in both of those contests. Further, that upward trajectory is expected to continue against Duke as Vermont leans into one of its most experienced team members at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
The Blue Devils don’t have the best track record of slowing down opponents. The last two teams they’ve faced have eclipsed 74 points, with three of the four starting big men totaling at least 10 points. That bodes well for Fiorillo as he reaches his ceiling in what could be his final game in the NCAA ranks.
There are two entry points in backing Fiorillo in the pick’em market. There’s an implied advantage in backing him to go higher than 7.5 points, but our preferred play is backing him to go north of 11 points + rebounds.
Rayshon Harrison Higher 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
The Grand Canyon Antelopes enter March Madness with one of the most profitable underdog trends backing them up. Since 1985, 34.9% of #12 seeds have won their first-round matchup against a #5 seed. Thankfully, historical data isn’t the only thing working for the Antelopes, as they also have Rayshon Harrison leading the charge.
Harrison has been an integral part of GCU’s success this season. The junior guard is the Antelopes’ floor general, leading the team in assists while ranking second in points behind team leader Tyon Grant-Foster. As Grand Canyon’s catalyst, Harrison has put his team on his back through the end of the regular season and conference tournament.
Over his last nine games, Harrison has eclipsed 10 points seven times, averaging 13.0 points per game over that stretch. Likewise, his assists and rebounds are on the climb, reaching 4.3 and 3.0, respectively, over the same stretch.
Grand Canyon is running hot, and it’s thanks in large part to Harrison’s contributions on both ends of the court. We’re expecting that scorching play to continue into the Antelopes’ first-round matchup against the St. Mary’s Gaels, with Harrison surpassing 19.5 points + rebounds + assists.
Rienk Mast Lower 18.5 Points + Rebounds
Despite struggling at times in the latter part of the campaign, the Nebraska Cornhuskers did enough to warrant an invite from the tournament committee to this season’s big dance. Their struggles as a team are analogous to what we’ve seen from Rienk Mast over the past couple of weeks, with the Cornhuskers’ big man coming up short with his recent performances.
Since February 21, Mast has underperformed relative to his season-long benchmarks. The 6’10” Dutchman is averaging just 9.1 points per game over that stretch, with a diminished 6.1 rebounds. That puts him well off his normal pace of 12.5 and 7.7.
Unfortunately, we’re not expecting Mast to reverse course on that downward trend against the Texas A&M Aggies. The Aggies have held five of their past seven opponents to 71 points or fewer. Moreover, their kryptonite has been defending the three-ball, with Texas A&M usually stacking up well on the interior.
Mast’s struggles are likely to continue into the NCAA Tournament, at least in the short term. He’s been ineffective over his recent sample, and the Aggies can turn to Solomon Washington and Andersson Garcia to contain Mast. At the end of this one, we’re betting the Nebraska big man comes up short in his pursuit of 18.5 points + rebounds.
Khristian Lander Lower 9.5 Points
The #15 seed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers face the unenviable task of getting past the #2 seed Marquette Golden Eagles on Friday. An ill-fated challenge that’s sure to end in disappointment for Western Kentucky and Khristian Lander as he looks to eclipse 9.5 points.
Injuries and lineup adjustments have limited Lander’s contributions this season. The senior has appeared in just 25 games for the Hilltoppers, splitting time between the bench and starting lineup. Altogether, he’s averaging 9.1 points per game, but he’s coming up well short of that over his recent sample. Over his last 13 games, Lander has fallen below that threshold on eight occasions for an average of 8.1.
That standing is unlikely to improve against the defensively responsible Golden Eagles. Marquette ranks top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency, limiting opponents to 95.8 points per 100 possessions. That standard has been on full display more recently, with Marquette holding three of its past five opponents to 68 points or fewer.
Lander’s underwhelming senior season will likely come to an unceremonious ending against Marquette. His usage metrics are on the decline, as are his shooting percentage and points total. We’re betting Lander comes in below 9.5 points in what will likely be the final game of his career.
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