We are down to the Final Four in the NCAA Tournament, and some unsuspecting teams are competing for the National Championship.
The fifth-seeded San Diego State Aztecs take on the ninth-seed Florida Atlantic Owls in one half of the bracket, with the fourth-seeded Connecticut Huskies trying to get past the fifth-ranked Miami (FL) Hurricanes in the other.
We’re paving the way with a breakdown of our top and value plays from the FantasyLabs projections.
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Now, let’s get into the slate!
March Madness CBB Guard Picks
Top Play: Isaiah Wong ($7,300)
Any one of the Hurricanes starters could be a difference-maker against the Huskies. Four players average more than 13.0 points per game, and each one has gone north of 30.0 fantasy points in the bid dance. Still, we like Isaiah Wong to perform best against the Huskies.
The Miami guard is coming off a modest outing. Wong put up 14 points, three rebounds, one assist, and two steals, resulting in 21.25 fantasy points against the Texas Longhorns in the Elite Eight. That interrupted a string of above-average performances, in which he recorded 32.0 or more fantasy points in three of his previous four.
Scoring has come more naturally for Wong when the pressure is on. Since their exit from the conference tourney, the junior has eclipsed 20 points on three occasions while seeing a modest increase in his rebounding average. Across that stretch, Wong is averaging 17.6 points and 5.0 rebounds, above his season-long totals of 16.2 and 4.4.
UConn plays ferocious defense, but that hasn’t prevented guards from thriving against them. Four players have recorded at least 11 points against the Huskies over the past couple of outings.
Wong will add to that trend in the Final Four.
Top Value: Matt Bradley ($5,600)
Things can’t get much worse for Matt Bradley. The Aztecs guard is coming off a laughable two-point effort in the Elite Eight, but somehow that wasn’t his worst performance of the tournament. Although Bradley only had two points, he still contributed a handful of rebounds and assists for 9.5 fantasy points. However, he tallied a paltry 8.75 fantasy points in the Sweet Sixteen against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Nevertheless, now is the perfect time to buy low on San Diego State’s leading scorer.
Bradley has been a primary contributor throughout the season. Not only does the senior top the scoring column, but he also ranks top-four in rebounds, assists, steals, and three-point shooting percentage. Despite consistent usage, we’ve seen a steady decline in his underlying metrics since the opening round.
The senior has bottomed out, and as is the case with value plays, there’s a contrarian approach to rostering him in on Saturday’s slate. Bradley is shooting just 22.2% over his past three contests, including 0-for-6 from distance. He’s well off his season benchmarks and will inevitably work his way back toward his fantasy average of 22.3 points per game. It won’t get any cheaper to roster Bradley after tonight.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems on PrizePicks for the NCAA tourney.
March Madness CBB Forward Picks
Top Play: Norchad Omier ($8,100)
Arguably, no player has had a more profound impact in the tournament than Norchad Omier. The Miami big man has recorded no fewer than 28.25 fantasy points in any of his four outings and again will be a focal point against UConn.
Omier has hit double-digits in points and rebounds in three of his four tournament games, albeit resulting in just two double-doubles. Nobody can hang with the sophomore on the glass, as Omier has totaled 53 rebounds in four matchups, setting the high mark each time out.
There’s more to Omier’s game than just rebounding, though. Although the sophomore has fallen marginally below his scoring average in the big dance, he’s seen a modest jump in assists and steals.
All things considered, Omier has gone north of his fantasy average in three of his previous four games and should continue his dominance against the Huskies. Based on our projections, he has the highest ceiling of any forward on the slate and will be one of Miami’s top performers.
Top Value: Vladislav Goldin ($6,600)
There is a clear distinction between the elite forwards on Saturday’s slate and everyone else. Only a few bigs project as meaningful fantasy contributors, with most players unlikely to make a tremendous impact. Although it’s not reflected in his salary, FAU center Vladislav Goldin is on the elite end of the spectrum.
Goldin is coming off his best effort of the year. The Russian had a career-high 37.75 fantasy points in the last round, totaling 14 points, 13 rebounds, two assists, and two blocks. That could be the tip of the iceberg as the Owls take on an undersized Aztecs squad.
Charleston, Furman, Alabama, and Creighton, aren’t exactly a gauntlet of college basketball’s finest, but that’s the path the Aztecs have taken to the Final Four. They’ll face a sincere challenge from Florida Atlantic, which ranks in the top 30 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Goldin leads the charge for the Owls and will accumulate fantasy points on both ends of the court, making him our preferred value play on Saturday.
March Madness CBB Flag Plant
Tristen Newton ($6,400)
There are several notable guards worth considering on Saturday’s slate, but Tristen Newton is our flag plant player in the Final Four. Granted, the Huskies guard hasn’t looked great in tournament play; still, he should have a chance to shine against an ineffective Hurricanes defense.
Newton is the third-leading scorer for UConn, averaging 9.9 points per game. However, that number has fallen, along with his shooting percentage over the last five games. In the NCAA Tournament, Newton is down to 7.8 points per game on 36.0% shooting.
Miami struggles to limit its opponents, and Newton is a natural progression candidate to end the campaign. The Hurricanes rank 203rd in the country in opponent shooting percentage, allowing Div. 1 foes to score on 44.6% of baskets. That’s good news for Newton, who has fallen below his normal scoring ranges and is due for a big showing in the Final Four.
Newton could easily surpass his implied value and lead the Huskies against Miami.
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