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Are the reports of Max Holloway’s demise greatly exaggerated? We’re about to find out. After consecutive losses to Alexander Volkanovski, many have written off the 29-year-old as washed or past his prime.
Six months after that most recent defeat, the former featherweight champion returns to the Octagon to meet Calvin Kattar, winner of two straight and looking to cement himself among the division’s top contenders.
The slick boxing of Kattar has brought him to this point, and the tough Bostonian will look to let his hands go in a striking chess match against one of the greatest volume wizards the sports has ever seen. A striking lover’s all-you-can-eat buffet awaits in a main event that should not disappoint.
Max Holloway
Like a child sitcom star, we have essentially seen Holloway grow up right before our eyes. The Hawaiian entered the UFC at 21 years old and over the last eight years, has put up a record of 17-6.
We’ve seen his pitfalls and we’ve seen his triumphs. After losing back-to-back fights to Dennis Bermudez and Conor McGregor back in 2013, Holloway reeled off 13 straight wins, including capturing the interim featherweight title against Anthony Pettis, unifying it against José Aldo, and defending it in a rematch against Aldo.
He did it with sheer volume, an unmatchable pace, and range awareness that very few fighters possess. The pace is truly what is unparalleled: In his last six fights, Holloway’s significant strike count has been 102, 134, 129, 181, 290, and 174. Holloway has the ability to overwhelm opponents, forcing them to try to keep up with his pace, where they more than often sink instead of swim. The range, trips, angles, and ability to get better as the fight goes on are attributes few fighters have been able to match.
The biggest question for Holloway coming into this fight, though, is if Holloway has lost a step following two straight losses and defeats in three of his last four. Those were close fights, however, and something Holloway showed even in defeat was a newfound maturity, helping him avoid significant punishment, fighting smarter to help prolong his career. It’s certainly possible he comes out of that stretch rattled, but keep in mind those three losses were to the current champ and one of the most exciting fighters in the division in Dustin Poirier.
Everyone loses, but the greats come back, recalibrated and ready to go. Holloway will have the opportunity to prove his prime is not in the past against a rabid Bostonian looking to make a name for himself under the spotlight.
Calvin Kattar
When Kattar first came to the UFC, I wasn’t sold. While a love of boxing means I will always have a spot in my heart for strikers, and Kattar showed early on that he had the chops to keep up with some of the masters of the division, there were some obvious weaknesses in his game.
Like most fighters with a strong boxing pedigree, Kattar was extremely heavy on the lead leg. Likewise, he would neglect the ground game in the hopes to keep the fight standing in its entirety, and as you get to the top of the food chain, that can be your ultimate demise.
However, Kattar has an uncanny ability to extract you into his fight, which is odd given his boxing pedigree. In eight fights, he has only been taken down twice, and other than him securing three of his own, the majority of his fights have taken place right where he wants it.
You might look at his punch rate and think it’s sluggish because he is not throwing up the numbers that Holloway does, but that’s not the case. Holloway just throws at an abnormally high rate. Kattar can fight in both spots on his feet. He has very good range management, good usage of his real estate in the cage, creates angles and traps very well, but he can also sit in the phone booth with you and make things ugly. He will bait you into standing with him and then let you pick where you want to play ball and follow you into that fox hole.
If you look at the level of competition between the two men, there’s obviously no comparison. Holloway has fought the “who’s who” of the division and Kattar is still climbing (despite being three years Holloway’s senior). While this is a slight step down for Holloway, this is without a doubt the biggest test of Kattar’s career by a country mile. In his eight UFC fights, he has four wins by KO and four by decision. In his entire career, he stands at 22-4 with 11 wins by KO and has only been stopped once by submission.
What makes this fight so intriguing to me, is that even though both men will be looking to test each other standing, they both need to bait the other to play their game. Kattar will look to slow things down and make it dirty, while Holloway will look to keep it moving in space and just score heavy and frequently at range, looking to drown Kattar with numbers as the fight grows older.
How I’m Betting
I love this fight from a striking perspective, but there is something to be said about the experience, the cage IQ, the level of competition, and most of all the understanding of adjustments that need to be made in championship rounds.
I see Kattar landing early and getting off on Holloway. Kattar will be sharp and fluid early given the Illusion that he can match Holloway in targets and completions of his strikes. He will most likely be landing harder and cleaner early on. But don’t let the illusion fool you, Holloway is calculating and downloading like he always does. He is a master at absorbing all that you are throwing at him, selling you false narratives and making you believe that what you see is what you get.
However, eventually Holloway will come out and show you more pressure, different looks and a completely different fighter than you saw in the previous two rounds. What does Kattar do then? Will he be able to make his own adjustments or does he try and keep up with the unrelenting pace? The slickest striker that Kattar has faced was Shane Burgos a great fight he ultimately finished in the third round. But Burgos isn’t one to make many adjustments. He is very hittable and is not in any way shape or form on the level of Holloway.
I see this fight like many of Holloway’s vintage fights where you question his game plan and wonder just how long Kattar can be the one getting off early and often until the tide starts to turn and Holloway gets his wheels under him unloading and dishing out a pace that Kattar just can’t keep up with. Both men are extremely durable and I am expecting this to go into the deep, right where Holloway likes it.
I got Max at -150 and I think that is a very fair price for a guy who has graced us with his greatness and is still only 29 years old. All the questions looming around this kid will be answered in the cage on Saturday night when he takes on a warrior from Boston.
The Pick: Max Holloway (-150)
DFS Breakdown
Holloway: DK $8,900 / FD 21
The short-term memory of people is unreal. How soon people forget the beauty in numbers that this guy has graced us with so many times. Surfing on waves over 100 SS per fight has become something of the norm for Holloway. With numbers such as 102, 134, 129, 181, 290, 174, and 104, the output and horsepower that Holloway puts out is amazing.
Eclipsing more than 100 fantasy points four times in his last six wins, Holloway is always a sure-fire play for me when he fights, especially in a five-rounder. Holloway has tremendous five-round cardio and has been there four straight times entering Saturday. Holloway has also never been KO’d, and it’s hard to believe with all of the fighters that he has faced that Kattar will be the one to do it. Holloway under $9K in a five-round fight? I’m in.
Kattar: DK $7,300 / FD 18
Kattar’s been given a tough task against someone like Holloway, who is constantly giving you different looks. Kattar has only been into the fifth round once, against Dan Ige in his last fight, which also benchmarked his highest strike count of 105. Before that was 85 against Burgos which was a very high-paced fight. He is going to need to step it up more against the pace and style of Holloway. $7,300 is a borderline punt play for a kid with beautiful boxing who can surely keep pace for a while.
I think it’s a tall mountain to climb for him if Holloway looks like himself on Saturday. Many will be baited in to go heavier on Kattar due to his price and the possible lineups that can be built. However, I’m not going there. I would without a doubt roster him in spots, because he is worth every penny, but pull the reins back a bit and don’t get sucked too deep into that fine price.
DFS Weights
- Holloway: 6-7 out of 10 lineups
- Kattar: 3-4 out of 10
