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Marvin Vettori vs. Kevin Holland
Kevin Holland
This was actually a fear of mine, but I thought I was going to have to wait a bit to really sit back and think about the future of Kevin Holland and what we can expect from him in his next fight. There is no doubt that Holland is talented, but there is also no doubt that he has a chip loose; something once funny and entertaining, but now it seems to be very disturbing.
Say what you will about Holland, but you aren’t getting random fighters coming in to beat some of the fighters that he has beaten. There is already a level to his game, and I believe there’s still achievable room for growth. Unfortunately it doesn’t seem he has the interest to see that growth through.
After the absolute disregard to actually trying to win and the embarrassment that he made out of himself, my fear with Holland is that he may actually come to fight for real in his next fight. His back is truly against the wall here, but does he care? Dana White is giving him an opportunity to really right the ship on short notice just a few weeks after his loss to Derek Brunson. Holland has one chance to really show that he wants to be here. Not that the past fights are completely overshadowed by his debacle in the cage in his last fight, but in a way, they kind of are getting overshadowed.
In fighting, you are only as good as your last fight, and his last fight was one where he and the company all wish to forget about. Holland now faces a chance at redemption but also a very tough task in front of him in the surging fighter, Italy’s own, Marvin Vettori.
Marvin Vettori
Training on US soil at Kings MMA here on my stomping ground in So-Cal, Vettori wireframes his blueprints under the watchful eye of Raphael Cordero. Vettori really hit my radar hard after his fight with Israel Adesanya in 2018. Even though he lost a split decision, he was the one who started figuring things out with Izzy.
It wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows for him out of the gate. Winning only two of his first five fights, I saw talent there, but he was a shy guy that you could see was fighting to prove that he belongs. After his fight with Izzy, it seemed he grew a chip on his shoulder and realized not only that he belongs, but he has the chops to go far in this division under the right tutelage.
He has strung together four straight wins with one of them coming inside the horn by submission against Karl Roberson. Vettori is now finding his stride, and they are feeding him at the proper pace. With a record of 16-4, “The Italian Dream” looks to shut Holland’s mouth once and for all. The trash-talking of both men are very robust, but Vettori brings it in a much more heated manner, whereas Holland is too playful. Trash-talking is a good thing if you can transition it into your fight, but when you use it for comedic value, there is nothing that can or will come out of it that is beneficial.
We know what the motives are for Vettori in this fight. This kid truly wants to represent Italy with some shiny new gold, and he seems to be dialed in enough to at least get on the right train tracks. Holland’s motives are known to a lesser extent. He was very open about never saying he wanted to be a champion and just wanting to have fun. Well, if he wants to continue to have fun under the UFC umbrella, he is going to need to look like a new fighter in there on Saturday night.
Vettori is not one to attack takedowns out of the gate, and his average is only about 1.1 per affair, but he doesn’t lean on that as a means to an end. However, when he does see there is a path for himself, he will look to take it and allow his average of winning to rise. With nine wins by way of submission and two wins by way of KO, it seems that Vettori has been racking up some decisions under the UFC umbrella with four of his five career wins coming under UFC.
How I’m Betting
There is a stark contrast in approach for both men. Vettori comes in with a bad attitude and fire in his heart, while Holland just tries to style in a playful game of loose chess. I really did fear Holland going back to camp, making adjustments and maybe coming in wired a little differently. However, this is really short notice, and even though he is still in shape from his last fight, there are some bigger issues to handle with what I did watch in his last outing.
It’s clear to me that Holland can do some work on the feet. He’s long, rangy and has a good overall skill when things are coupled into his wheelhouse. With that said, Vettori is fighting as a man possessed right now, and although Holland promises to talk much less in this fight, it’s hard to get behind that when Vettori is on such a tear. Not only is he on a tear but he is so mentally dialed in that I feel it will be hard to really capsize what he has moving right now.
Vettori is also durable, has good cardio and puts on a serious pace. I see this as an impulse decision for Holland to prove himself, and I don’t find it as a very well thought out move by his camp. I think he needs to be re-wired a bit. However, I do understand the sting of having so many doubters. With that said, Holland burned me once before, and if I allow him to do it again without seeing the change, I would have no one to blame other than myself. With that said, you also need to remember that this is a five-round fight, and Vettori held up extremely well in his previous five-round outing, applying a lot of pressure at the end when most fighters tend to steam out a bit. This is a hard sell to pick against him here.
The Pick: Vettori
DFS Breakdown
Marvin Vettori: $9600
100 + points: 3 of 9
Covered Current Market Value: 3 of 9
Hedge: 5
Vettori is on a different level right now. He has good cardio, good wrestling, his standup has sharpened, and Rapheal Cordero has him very dialed in. The $9600 dollar price tag does scare me a bit. Holland is such an accepting fighter when it comes to positions, and he can nullify a lot of damage with stalling, but I think we will see a slightly different fighter in Holland, allowing Vettori more opportunity to expose him. It’s not the greatest price in the world, but one I am willing to touch in spots.
Kevin Holland: $6600
100 + points: 3 of 10
Covered Current Market Value: 8 of 10
Hedge: 3
This price is crazy if you ask me. I understand that he looked like an embarrassment in his last fight, but let’s pump the breaks for a moment. This price is solely predicated on one bad showing because if he fought well against Brunson, this price would be much closer. I can’t say he will win because I expect him to lose, but I can’t pass this up in spots.
VEGAS: This one won’t be finished early — Over 2.5 Rounds at -130
