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When you look at the evolution of any athlete, you need to take a walk back into their past to see where they came from, where they have been and where they are now. It is almost like looking at the evolution chart. When you take a deep dive into both Kumaru Usman’s and Jorge Masvidal’s careers, you will see a clear difference in their pattern of evolution.
Jorge Masvidal
Masvidal is a fighter that was groomed in the streets of Miami under the watchful eye of legendary street fighter, Kimbo Slice. Masvidal has a mystique about him due to the image he procured from his time in the streets. People tend to associate his dangerous background in the streets as a perfect translation to organized prizefighting. In a way, it helps, because mentally there is a certain mindset that you need to ever pursue such a thing.
Many mixed martial artists will openly admit that they can count on one hand how many street fights that they have been in. To pursue it the way Masvidal did shows a different type of wiring. Masvidal’s mindset and calm rage are extremely beneficial. However, you still need certain tools that need to be implemented.
With a record of 35-14, Jorge has been in this game for quite some time but is only starting to catch traction within the last few years, with three straight wins against Darren Till, Ben Askren and Nate Diaz. It is not so much the wins as much as it is how he won those fights. He flattened Till, put Askren on a historical poster board, and he won the BMF belt at Madison Square Garden. The masses bit down and started really buying into this entire Street Jesus thing, and he took the ball running.
Masvidal fought Usman for the strap and lost a decision in which he will now try to get that one back. With that said, if you look at the record of Masvidal, you will see that his record is very spotty. That’s okay, but there is a clear pattern with the men that he tends to drop fights to in recent times. Usman, Stephen Thompson and Damian Maia are all extremely high-pedigree names in the sport, but it seems he just can’t get past that last rung of skillset.
If you want to be in rarified air, you need to be able to breathe up there, and although he has given a good account of himself, he seems to be coming up a tad short in these spots unless he catches the opposition sleeping. This is not an indictment of Jorge, because he is a very good fighter, but he is one that is being glorified due to his highlight-reel finish against Askren, his KO on Till and the winning of the BMF belt.
If you really look at his paths to victory in any fight, it’s a mixture of sheer will, skill and not being breakable mentally. However, you can’t ignore the fact that his skillset is not as polished as the fighters mentioned above. I think Masvidal is a very good fighter, but he is inflated a bit for sure.
Kamaru Usman
On the flip side, Usman’s trail to becoming champion has been an evolution of epic proportions. The guy is where he is for a reason. Having a solid base from the beginning, he has come into his own in so many ways. In the evolution of his fighting landscape, he has developed skills that are just as devastating as his main ace that he holds in wrestling.
His jab is now one of his greatest weapons. He understands range, distance management and how to touch without loading up too much. His athletic ability, cardio, cage awareness and wrestling ability is top of the food chain, none of which were just bestowed upon him. These things evolved over time.
People tend to look at Usman like he is a boring fighter, but they said the same thing about Tyron Woodley in his heyday. The proof is in the pudding that he wins, and that’s all that matters. He wins and he wins big against the most elite of competition.
With a record of 18-1, Usman has been on the wrong side of of just one fight in 2013 against someone that couldn’t even wax his eyebrows if they were to fight again (Jose Caceres). Many have tried, many have believed and all have failed. The names on his resume are putting him clearly in that rarified air. With names like Gilbert Burns, Masvidal, Colby Covington, Woodley, Rafael dos Anjos and Maia all placed on his mantel, it doesn’t seem like he is slowing down anytime soon.
How I’m Betting
Just July of last year Masvidal didn’t have the answer, so what makes you think that he is going to have the answers now? I respect Masvidal, and I think he is a pure fighter, but I just don’t think he is on the level of Usman from a skill set perspective. Usman was rocked by Gilbert Burns, and he was put on skates numerous times in that fight, but at the end of the day, he had more paths. Masvidal’s lone path is basically catching Usman, which is very possible, but its not a path that I am willing to bank on. This fight goes the same way as the last time. And still…..
The Pick: Usman
DFS Breakdown
Kamaru Usman: $9400
100+ points: 8 of 10
Market value: 8 of 10
Hedge: 6-7
Usman has blown the cover off the ball in most of his fights. It’s safe to say that if he wins, he covers. I’m not saying there isn’t any clear danger here, but this is his fight to win. With an 80 percent chance of hitting his current market value, it makes him one of the most intriguing plays on the slate.
Jorge Masvidal: $6800
100+ points: 5 of 10
Market value: 6 of 10
Hedge: 2-3
Street Jesus has a lot of shit-talking to back up in this fight. Although the kid is game as anyone, he has a tall mountain to climb in the rematch. I won’t fade him totally, but Usman comes to fight and doesn’t get clipped. It may be a long night at the office for Masvidal, but if he wins, it will be by KO. At this price, a taste is mandatory.
Wagers: I would not tamper with the props here either.
