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This fight has a lot of interesting undertones. Many people think this fight could be over quickly and from the sample sizes we’ve seen from Deiveson Figueiredo, I do understand why. He made extremely quick work of Alex Perez in his last fight.
So what I try to do in every breakdown is extract the important takeaways and see what and where he had his greatest successes and faults that night. They say you are only as good as your last fight, but I really don’t believe that. I believe the masses believe it, but that just is not the truth.
Styles and matchups make fights, and nothing else. Perez is a very fundamentally sound fighter with traditional wrestling and traditional boxing. His style is very A and B without straying to the boundaries of C and D, and against someone like Figs, you just can’t do that.
You need to throw different looks at him from different angles and different trajectories. You need to make him think, make him wonder, and bring him to a place where he begins to question what the next chess move may be. Fighting is about adjustments. Always has been and always will be.
However, you can’t make adjustments if you just can put a bead on what is coming next. Can Brandon Moreno present enough different looks in this flyweight title bout to challenge the heavy favorite and reigning champ?
Brandon Moreno
Moreno brings an element of awkwardness to the cage and his persona actually fits his actions. A very goofy and playful personality that brings much color into the room finds its way into the cage. Very odd movements, a herky-jerky style, and odd creativity that is not smooth by any stretch of the means, but what true art isn’t filled with rough layers? If you take all that and couple it with his thirst for battle, you have a lot of pieces that play in perfect concert with each other to create beautiful chaos.
With an 18-5 record, it is a little strange that the UFC let Moreno go for any stint of time. With three knockouts and 10 submissions under his belt, Moreno has proven his ability to scramble with anyone. After dropping two tough bouts against Pettis and Pantoja, he signed with LFA, where he won one fight before getting back to the UFC, where he is now on a three-fight winning streak with one draw.
Moreno does his best work in a hurricane of chaos and he will need to create that against Figs, if at all possible. He must create unreadable patterns on the feet and create scrambles on the ground. Stay active and never accept any position unless it’s an advantageous one.
Moreno needs to understand that swimming in the calm bay with Figs is just not going to work. Figs is a patient fighter and will wait for you to either make a mistake or stay very patient until he times you. In California, there is a place that they call “The Wedge” — a rough body of water with the biggest, most dangerous, and most unpredictable waves around for surfers.
He needs to take Figs to a similar place. A place of the unknown and a place of hesitation. It’s really his only path to victory here.
Deiveson Figueiredo
This may be odd to say, but I am not fully sold on Figueiredo just yet and it’s honestly not his fault. I am just not 100% certain we have seen his ceiling.
In his last 10 fights, only three have gone to the cards — one by a split (won), two by decision (1-1). Outside of that, he has truly just run through his opposition in a multitude of facets. However, outside of a few dragged out fights, we haven’t seen him in the deepest of waters a ton of times.
However, as I said, that is not his fault. The tricky thing with Figs is his disturbing patience. He will wait and wait while laying a bead on you, reading your patterns, your movements, and just computing everything that you are doing. He doesn’t panic or care if he gives up a round doing it.
The more patient you see him, the more dangerous he is. It means he calculated something, he registered something and he sees something. He will wait for the window to open on it and when it does, he will jump through taking you with him. Whether it’s a grenade of a strike or he decides to snatch a limb, it’s just a matter of time at that point. With a record of 20-1, he has nine KOs and eight subs to his merit. In his lose loss to grappling ace Jussier Formiga (who I picked in that fight), he lost by decision.
With 11 first-round finishes and six second-round finishes, it doesn’t take him long to put a bead on his opposition. However, it could take a bit longer for him to lay a bead on someone like Moreno.
How I’m Betting
I see Moreno coming out hot from the jump. He knows that he can not give Figs time to breathe and set in there. Disruption in timing and chaos is what he needs. I think he will bait Figs into a little bit different style fight here.
However, I think it’s just a matter of time before Figs starts to land some big shots and really starts to find his mark. Moreno will eat some good shots and keep moving forward in true warrior fashion, but the accumulation of power and pace will eventually slow both men down, allowing Figs to lay a target on Moreno a little easier. That off-kilter movement will start to become more A and B instead of what it was with C and D.
This will be a longer fight than the Perez fight and I am also expecting this to be competitive until Moreno starts opening up some windows and then it will just be a matter of time. I like Figs, but he’s pricy at -330.
Therefore, I will not be laying that much wood in this fight. However, as a parlay piece, Fig’s a very serviceable option. Also, Fig inside the distance, although I will not be playing this fight, is something you can keep your eye on if you wish to have some skin in the game at around -152 at PointsBet.
The Pick: Figueiredo, use in parlays
DFS Breakdown
Moreno: DK $7,200 / FD 18 (better value on DK)
Moreno is worth a few small punts here at $7,200. Although not a barnburner when it comes to scoring. You always need to remember that main events are five rounds, not three. So when you look at his scoring in three rounds, you may be swayed a bit.
However, in a five-round fight, coupled with the fact that he has never been finished in his entire career, gives him some appeal at his price.
Temper expectations a bit in this spot though, there is a very solid possibility that he gets stopped for the first time here. Going to the distance with someone like Figs is never a shoe-in. Beating him is an even harder task.
Lab Weight out of 10 lineups: 3
Figueiredo: DK $9,000 / FD 23 (slightly better value on DK)
Figueiredo has hit value in his last five outings with scores of 92.5, 133.5, 97.5, 94.0, and 89.5. That should be enough to tell you that he is worth rostering. The upside for him to finish this fight is very real and if he does finish, he will cover his value easily.
However, you can’t just assume he is going to finish this fight. You must keep in mind that Moreno is not one to go quietly into the night and like I said above, he’s never been finished. So if by chance it does go to the cards, you may be flirting with the line due to Fig’s even-tempered approach.
In his last two fights that went to the cards against Pantoja, Moreno scored 89 in a win and before that against Will Brooks, he won and only scored 44.5. I do understand that these were three-round fights, but the Pantoja fight was in fact a flame thrower. Overweigh yourself with multi-lineup builds with Figs, but don’t be shocked if it does reach the cards.
Lab Weight out of 10 Lineups: 6
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