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Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira
Michael Chandler
Oh, look who’s back. The guy that everyone and their mother picked against when he fought Dan Hooker.
That’s what happens when someone is wrecking shop for his entire career outside of the UFC. The caliber of fighter between the two wasn’t even close, and it said a lot about the masses that picked against Michael Chandler, to be honest.
Now, Chandler is facing a guy who is far better than Hooker, and the public is now starting to lean his way a bit more.
The Division 1 wrestler from the University of Missouri led his team as captain in his junior and senior years. After his successful career in wrestling, he transferred over to MMA and it was only common sense to understand that this guy had the tools to be something special. Chandler won the lightweight championship in Bellator three times, defending the title three times between his two reigns.
Chandler lost the title to Eddie Alvarez back in November 2013, Brett Primus in June 2017 and most recently to Patricio “Pitbull” Freire via first-round TKO in December 2018. The loss to Primus was due to an ankle injury that caused a stoppage in the fight, so it’s difficult to call that one a real loss. He bounced back and beat Primus to regain the title before losing to Pitbull.
Chandler has five losses in his MMA career, with three coming via TKO with two split decisions. It’s noteworthy going into a fight against Oliveira that Chandler has never been submitted.
Many people are saying that Chandler does not deserve this title shot considering he has only one fight in the UFC. Well, these people have no idea who he is and what he has accomplished in his career. Chandler is 100% deserving of this shot from a skillset level and also what he has already done in being a company man for the UFC in such a short stint.
Charles Oliveira
Chandler takes on Oliveira, who deserves this shot probably more than anyone. After his devastating loss to Paul Felder in December 2017, Oliveira has won eight straight fights, seven of which were finishes.
With a 30-8 Record, Oliveira has eight by TKO/KO and 18 by way of submission. The third-degree jiu jitsu black belt is as polished as it gets on the ground. If he gets you down early enough in the round, very bad things can happen.
In his eight losses, Oliveira has been knocked out four times and submitted three.
The one pattern I have seen in all of Oliveira’s losses and one thing that I feel he has corrected very much is his tendency of being broken. He had something in him in the past that literally made him break and quit. I have seen it happen right before my eyes and it ultimately pulled me off him in many of his fights.
Oliveira really needs to dictate pace. He needs to be the one moving forward. Being defensive could lead Oliveira to slowly break down against an aggressive fighter like Chandler. We saw it in the Felder fight and others, as well.
However, it seems like Oliveira has flipped a switch over his last eight fights, but it’s worth wondering whether that’s the case or all his opponents simply fell into his traps. I would say that the level of competition was in fact stellar, but they all did have tendencies of running themselves into bad situations.
Clay Guida has been submitted 10 times. Christos Giagos is reckless and has been submitted four times. Jim Miller was way out of his prime. David Teymur a pure striker with no wrestling or grappling ability, Nick Lentz was way out of his prime, Jared Gordon has been knocked out in all of his losses. Kevin Lee has been submitted in three of his six losses. Then there’s Tony Ferguson, whom Oliveira could not finish but did thoroughly dominate.
Although these are all names in the UFC, they fit a fundamental streamline with gaping paths for Oliveira to expose. He won’t have those paths against Chandler, at least they won’t be as easy to exploit.
Chandler is shorter, faster, stronger, more powerful, smarter and the better wrestler in this spot. There is a first time for everything and Oliveira can submit anyone at the right time, but Chandler never being submitted is a true testament to what a good ground-control wrestler he actually is to nullify many potentially harmful situations.
Chandler brings that true hunting pressure that Oliveira just doesn’t like. It makes the Brazilian very uncomfortable and when he is backing up, it flusters him. Oliveira has shown tendencies to throw panic shots, although his newfound striking has gotten a lot better.
When you look at the paths for Oliveira here, the submission is obviously on the table, even though Chandler has never lost in that fashion. As far as getting finished on the feet, Chandler has been knocked out, but does Oliveira really have the power to get that done? I really don’t think so, unless he just really catches him in the right spot. Outside of Oliveira’s two most recent knockouts, he has not KO’d anyone since 2010.
How I’m Betting
I think Chandler pushes the pace and really backs Oliveira up, dictating the pace while looking to get in close, gaining his own top control where his wrestling is heavy enough to keep Oliveira in place. I also think that Chandler has plenty of power to clip Oliveira and stun him.
If this does happen and the pressure is coming all from the Chandler side, I am expecting later on in the fight for Oliveira to start breaking. I think this is a great fight, but I can see Chandler finishing this fight inside the horn at some point if he doesn’t get wrapped up in a submission.
The Pick: Michael Chandler
DFS Breakdown
Chandler: $7,500
100+ points: 1 of 1
Current Market Value: 1 of 1
Hedge: 7
So many people were against Chandler in his UFC debut that it was laughable. It was actually disturbing. They either pigeon hole themselves in the UFC being the be all, end all of MMA, or they really just had no idea how talented this guy really is.
This is obviously a dangerous fight for him. Oliveira is a dangerous fight for anyone, but with Chandler’s wrestling credentials and understanding of weight distribution, he should be able to nullify a lot of that.
Chandler is getting older and does have issues with getting put on his ass, but Oliveira’s track record makes me think he won’t be able to strike his way to a finish.
This is a very good spot for Chandler if he avoids making a big mistake that puts him in serious trouble. You will have company here, but it’s Value City.
Oliveira: $8,700
100+ points: 3 of 10
Current Market Value: 8 of 10
Hedge: 3
I mean, the guy is hitting his CMV at an 80% clip. That is pretty tough to look past. The thing with Oliveira here is that he can be broken. I have seen him broken. He doesn’t like getting lead. Chandler is going to lead this dance early and I can see Oliveira looking to jump on a submission very very early. As realistic as this is, I would be shocked if Chandler makes such a mistake to be honest. However, there may not be anyone more dangerous than Oliveira right now when it comes to cinching something up and completely ending your night in the end. You need to have some back up pegs on him in case he finds the neck early.
Vegas Play: Chandler +115
Pictured: Charles Oliveira (left) and Michael Chandler
Credit: Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC
