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Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Robert Whittaker
When you talk about two fighters who have all the tools to be at the top of their craft, it is hard to turn a blind eye to both men here. Robert Whittaker at one time hit the pinnacle and stamped his flag as the middleweight champion for a brief time. With an overall record of 22-5, Whittaker has really flown under the radar for the most part, even with his successful run in the UFC.
With a record of 13-3 under the UFC umbrella, Robert has beaten and fought stellar competition during this time. His loss to Israel Adesanya broke a 10-fight win streak, and it seemed that Whittaker’s past — meaning the wars he endured against Yoel Romero — was starting to creep into the cage. Those fights were brutal for Whittaker’s body. To go 10 brutal rounds with Romero, one had to wonder even though he won both fights, if Whittaker would be the same upon his return.
Plagued with injuries, Whittaker finally made his return against Izzy and was KO’d in the second round for the first time in his career since 2014 against Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. The hammer was officially dropped on Whittaker, and it was said by many that those wars took something from him which most of the time doesn’t return.
Since that loss, he has bounced back with two very big wins, and it seems like Whittaker is much more centered than he was in the previous past. It is human nature to read the thousands of comments made against you and start questioning yourself. However, the only thing that would solidify to him that he hasn’t lost anything is getting back to his winning ways.
With wins over Darren Till and Jared Cannonier, Whittaker is ready to have respect placed back on his name in this main event that can put him right back into the thick of it. With nine KOs and five submissions, Whittaker will look for the finish if it presents itself. The black belt in multiple disciplines including BJJ has the know-how to create his spots, and in my estimations, is one of the most well-rounded fighters on the roster. The issue that is still looming around about Whittaker is his chin. It will be tested in this fight in a big way, and we will need to keep a clear eye on that. With that said, Whittaker seems rested, ripe and ready for another run.
Kelvin Gastelum
Whittaker will need to be back to his old self against another extremely dangerous and overlooked fighter in Kelvin Gastelum. I always looked at Kelvin as a special fighter. He has a very good chin, good boxing, solid grappling and a high IQ for the game. However, Kelvin has had some really rough goes in the past.
With a record of 16-6, Gastelum has six wins by KO and four by submission. In his six losses, Kelvin has only been finished by way of submission twice. Whatever was going on with Kelvin seems to have passed as of now. Winning his last fight in impressive fashion, Gastelum would wipe away the three-straight losses prior, setting him up for this trajectory-changing fight with Whittaker.
The black belt under the 10th planet system has seemed to really find his home at KingsMMA under Raphael Cordero and company. In his last fight against Ian Heinisch, he looked smooth, sharp and very confident in his skills. He looked like the old Kelvin, and the old Kelvin is a dangerous Kelvin. Keep in mind that beating Heinish is a very good win because he is so brutally tough, but he is no Robert Whittaker. Kelvin brings a very polished game as well with a piping hot piston for a left hand which he utilizes well. The matchup just seems a little out of his favor here.
How I’m Betting
Both men match up very well in terms of strengths and weaknesses. It’s not that they hold many weaknesses, but I think Whittaker holds the edge in the most important departments. Whittaker’s speed, the ability to move about the cabin, his stabbing jab, the 85% takedown defense and the cage IQ are all a bit better in my opinion. With that said, he does lunge in on many occasions and sometimes his movements just don’t look very smooth. He will usually expose himself at this time, and someone like Kelvin will look to unhinge him when this happens.
That is where Whittaker needs to really be careful. Whittaker is going to find it very difficult to really sting Kelvin without really putting in work. You are not going to put him on skates with one shot. You need to systematically approach with volume to really start burning down the temple. It is then when you will see Kelvin start to become very hittable and sloppy.
I think this is a great fight with many twists and turns that can transpire, I just think Whittaker holds the ace in this spot if he comes out properly. I think the beginning of the fight is a certified chess match of seeing who is biting on what and who is really just standing their ground. As time goes on it will be Whittaker getting off a little more in the exchanges which will look good in the eyes of the judges. I am not expecting this fight to end early, unless it’s a win from really walking onto something on either side. However, I do have Whittaker winning this fight and moving forward for his second wind to make another run.
The Pick: Whittaker
Robert Whittaker: $9100
100+ Points: 3 of 10
Current Market Share Price: 3 of 10
Hedge: 5-6
Robert Whittaker seems like he has shaken off the cobwebs and is back to his good form. There is one issue that scares me about this fight, and it is his chin. It hasn’t been bad, but it can be put into question with someone like Gastelum. I think if Whittaker protects his chin, he wins this fight on just technical ability and being able to switch things up a little better. In a five-round fight, he is going to be forced to fight against Gastelum. He wins and covers. I’ll have some.
Kelvin Gastelum: $7100
100+ Points: 1 of 10
Current Market Share Price: 4 of 10
Hedge: 3-4
Total disrespect here, as Gastelum is always game in big spots, and I expect nothing less here. He is not going to take a step back, and he is going to make Whittaker fight with him. I think he falls behind slightly in important situations, but there is clear value on Gastelum that you need to take advantage of.
VEGAS: Stay away and just enjoy the fight.
