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When you look at this fight in its entirety, it’s hard not to agree with Vegas here with the close line set.
Even though the dynamics of the Heavyweight Division are far more volatile than any other division for reasons that are quite obvious, the matchup is extremely tight in terms of the leveling of talent inside the cage.
With an 11-2 record, Rozenstruik has 10 wins by way of KO. The extremely polished striker has a beautifully furnished kickboxing record as well of 76-8, with 64 KOS’s. It is quite clear that Rozenstruik is a consummate striker with good technique and bone chilling power when he finds the mark. You aren’t getting manipulating footwork, angle and trajectory changes, head movement or any of the things that you think he would bring to the table with such credentials.
“Biggie Boi” walks forward with a slow, flat-footed, yet calculated approach to wait for an opportunity to hit the kill switch. Don’t get it twisted, he will not just walk forward and throw one bomb, He will try to bait you into spots that will open you up, but not in the fashion that you think. Many fighters will use angles and manipulations to get them a better look at the target using footwork and basic functionality in movement.
Rozenstruik will use his strike patterns to either get you to throw back to shed him, while he comes back with a counter, or force you to cover up a certain location and come up top or down low. The biggest issue with Rozenstruik is his inability to move. If you get a pure nimble striker that understands in and out movement, lateral movement, and looks to score and get out, Biggie Boi can be in a bit of trouble.
He will then have to hunt harder, move forward harder, and in turn that will expose him to walk onto something. Sakai is a pretty agile heavyweight despite his size and appearance, but he isn’t a guy that is going to stay on the outside and pop shot you to death. He too will look to move forward and get dirty with you with equivalent results when he does land.
With a record of 15-2, and 11 of those wins coming by way of KO, Sakai will be happy to compare power bars with Biggie Boi. However, if you are looking for a barn burner of a fight with volume, you are looking in the wrong spot. This fight will have some pace, but not one with hands flying rapidly.
Both men are going to really look to find their spots and wait for them if need be. They both understand that one mistake or one open window and the night can be over. So I am expecting a fight in which both men are calculated, cautious and have their spots where leather will be exchanged very heavily on both sides.
Sakai will have the better movement and the ability to utilize much more of the cage, but it will be Rozenstruik showing the appearance of walking Sakai back, which can open up more opportunities for him while Sakai is on his back foot. Rozenstruik is not a fighter who will really over commit, so Sakai is really going to have to put a roadblock up and push back if he wants to control the cage and dictation of which way the fight flows.
Heavyweights are really hit or miss, especially in a stylistic match where both men look to finish with the hands. I am going to lean Rozenstruik here. Although I think Sakai has the better movement and solid power, Rozenstruik is a little more patient and calculated. His power also will have a greater effect if and when he lands. I think Rozenstruik has trouble in this one for sure, but I think he is the one that gets to the spots with more success in this one.
The Pick: Rozenstruik
DFS
- Rozenstruik: $8,200 (DraftKings)
- 100+ Points: 2 of 7
- Current Market Value: 5 of 7
- Hedge: 5
It isn’t often that a heavyweight fight is priced this closely in a main event. I think it goes without saying that in such a volatile division you need to have a taste on both sides. It is easier done in a situation like this because you can pivot away from one spot, swap, and most likely not hinder the rest of your lineup depending on how it’s constructed because the two players are priced so similarly.
There is no doubt that Sakai will bring more volume in his attacks but Rozenstruik will have 25 minutes to march him down to get what he wants as well. I have a slight lean on Rozenstruik here and think he has the better upside to land that kill shot first.
- Sakai: $8,000 (DK)
- 100+ Points: 1 of 6
- Current Market Value: 2 of 6
- Hedge: 4
I don’t project this fight going to the cards, but I do see plenty of realistic thought processes behind this fight going his way. Sakai is a tough and talented fighter who is extremely live. He will need to use his movement and skill to make Rozenstruik track him down and make him walk onto something. I like both of their chances inside the horn but like I said above, I am just leaning slightly on Rozenstruik a little more here.
Vegas
- Rozenstruik -135
- Sakai +105
No bet. Middle of the way Heavyweights. The line is correct and thats how close this fight should be. Therefore I am not flipping that coin.
