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Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson
Michelle Waterson
This wasn’t originally supposed to be the main event, but here we are. Michelle Waterson is a staple that has made a pretty good name for herself. The natural atomweight fighter has always been a bit undersized, but her toughness and ability to walk through punishment without a concern of getting marked up has always been a very sneaky attribute of hers.
With a record of 18-8 with three KOs and nine submissions, the black belt in karate has used her BJJ brown belt and slippery grappling skills to get most of her work done in the finishing department. In her eight losses, Waterson has been KO’d once and submitted three times. Waterson has always been dealing with being the smaller fighter due to UFC not having an atomweight division, but she has still fared well.
I can, however, say that if she was a little bigger, her success would be greater. In her last seven fights, she has gone to the cards in all of them. She is 4-3 in this span, losing to Carla Esparza, Joanna Jędrzejczyk and fellow natural atomweight, Tecia Tores. She won a split decision in her last fight to Angela Hill in September that many thought Hill won, but it was close enough to be a split.
With a very sharp and fast-striking pedigree, Waterson will always be the more active and swifter fighter, coupling a barrage of kicks and punches together, looking to score at a moderate yet effective rate. The one issue I do have with Waterson is that she has this thing for a head and arm throw that is an extremely high risk and high reward move. At her size, I am impressed on how effective it actually is, but she can be turned over on position quickly if she doesn’t have the perfect angle or leverage on it.
Marina Rodriguez
She will need to watch her step against the larger fighter in Marina Rodriguez. With a three-inch reach advantage and a three-inch height advantage, Marina is going to bring an element of power and range to Waterson that can slow her down. With a 13-1 record, Rodriguez has six KOs and one submission. She’s never been finished.
The most impressive win to date was her last one against Amanda Ribas after losing a split decision to Carla Esparza and a draw to Cynthia Calvillo. With just shy of a 50% takedown defense, many thought that would be Ribas’ path to victory, but Rodriguez silenced everyone with a huge upset which earned her performance of the night, after she finished Ribas with an arsenal of elbows and punches.
How I’m Betting
I see this being a highly competitive fight, and Waterson will come out with nimble feet, but eventually I think the power of Rodriguez starts to mark up Waterson. As the fight moves on if Waterson can’t secure something on the ground, then Rodriguez can start slowing her down.
Waterson will punch her way in looking for a head and arm throw at some point, and I am not too certain it will work on Rodriguez. As slippery as Waterson is on the ground, I just think the power edge, the clinch game and the more devastating shots of the fight will be leaning in the favor of Rodriguez here.
The Pick: Rodriguez
DFS Breakdown
Michelle Waterson: $7000
100+ points: 2 of 10
Current Market Value: 6 of 10
Hedge: 3-4
At this price Waterson is always a play to look into. Even though she hovers around the 70 point average in her career, she has had her moments of very good scoring outings and is active enough to really hit a nice bench mark if she wins. Waterson is Live in this spot against a fairly untested Rodriguez.
Rodriguez: $9200
100+ points: 1 of 6
Current Market Value: 1 of 6
Hedge: 3-4
She will have the size and the power advantage in this spot. Although she is highly unproven outside of a few spots, she does have the ability to put points on the board if she starts flowing in the right direction. Only hitting her current market value one time in her last seven fights, I would be very careful here against someone like Waterson who tends to keep the target moving.
Vegas: No Play
