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Dominick Reyes vs. Jiri Prochazka
Dominick Reyes
This fight is a very interesting one from a stylistic stand point. On one side you have Dominick Reyes, who at one time was a part of this new wave of athletic light heavyweights, with good power and speed, sharp movements and nimble footwork. He showed a well-rounded ability in his fights under the UFC umbrella and was making a name for himself rather quickly.
With a record of 12-2, Reyes has seven KOs and two submissions to his credit. He was undefeated until his last two fights in which he was defeated by Jon Jones and Jan Blachowicz. It seems that Reyes’ steam has left the boat a bit. The hype that he once had is fading, and I am not certain why. He lost to the current champion and arguably one of the best that ever did it. Where is there shame in this?
I will agree that I was never a major Reyes fan though. I think he was inflated a bit too soon, and now he is paying the public price for it. Things won’t get any easier for him here when he faces a very tricky fighter in Jiri Prochazka.
Jiri Prochazka
At 6’3” with an 80″ reach, Prochazka has a way about him that can really just throw you off. He uses a very goofy style that can be offsetting for more traditional style fighter. Good boxing is one thing, but slick boxing is a completely different animal. Prochazka tends to really utilize range very well. He will reach a bit, but that only makes his striking so much harder to gauge because of his length.
In his fight with Volkan Oezdemir, it seemed that he was really able to throw Volkan off with his antics. There is no doubt that Prochazka is a super fun fighter to watch, but he’s a fighter that eventually is going to put himself into some trouble from a firing range perspective. Dropping your hands, showboating, leaving your chin on a shelf and smiling is not the way to face the top-flight guys in the division. It just won’t work against guys that are waiting to shift a gear and change levels. With that said, he just seems to be coasting right now. There’s no real desperation in his style.
With a record of 27-3, you can see that he has not fought an elite fighter. However, with 24 wins by way of KO and two wins by way of submission, there is no secret that he brings it when he wants to. With an 11-fight win streak and all but one coming by way of KO, he is making quite the wave for himself, earning a main event in his second fight under the UFC umbrella. This fight is a crossroads fight for Reyes and a serious discussion springer for Prochazka if he wins, especially by way of KO again.
How I’m Betting
I think this fight is going to be severely predicated on where Reyes is mentally. Can he wash away these two losses, or will he let doubt start settling in if he can’t just find his range against such an awkward fighter. Sometimes you don’t need to be a world better technically to win fights. It just takes a certain style to make adjustments if things start going south. A fighter starts to get frustrated and discouraged, and then they will start to do uncharacteristic things that will make them go for broke. Reyes just can’t do that.
He needs to stick to the game plan and understand that he is giving up a three-inch reach and that training for a fighter like Prochazka is not easy to mimic in the gym. However, Reyes will need to really stick to what he does best with his fast feet, staying off the centerline, moving laterally, keeping his mind sharp and his punches sharper. If I were Reyes and his team, I would honestly throw some wrestling in the mix here. Make Prochazka think, and don’t allow him to get so loose.
Hesitation can be the difference between landing and getting landed on, and if Reyes can create that feeling, he has the speed and footwork to start stinging Prochazka. This is a really tough fight to call, because on one side you have clear momentum, and on the other side you have a guy that had a fall from grace. I like Reyes’ chances to do just that against a tough customer, but a beatable one.
The Pick: Dominick Reyes
DFS Breakdown
Dominick Reyes: $7900
100+ points: 4 of 8
Current Market Value: 5 of 8
Hedge: 6
Reyes has a lot of ground to gain here. From a kid that couldn’t do no wrong, he is now a fighter with his back against the wall on the playground. People tend to forget very quickly what we thought of him before his 2 fight skid. The kid is athletic, sharp, and still has upside. I think he will be dialed in here.
Jiri Prochazka: $8300
100+ points: 1 of 1
Current Market Value: 1 of 1
Hedge: 4
Getting a main event spot right off of a debut fight seems odd to me. I think he has a lot of danger zones for the opposition in his game. The quirky style, the crazy movements, the showboating and the careless approach are all things that are surely tough to prepare for. If he catches Reyes mentally in a situation when he lets the possible three-fight skid get to him, it may cause Reyes to become very trigger shy. I still think Reyes surprises a lot of people Saturday.
Vegas:
I am sitting back on this fight. I am picking Reyes, but I would like a little more dog money here. There are many variables involved mentally for him. I need to see if he truly can wipe away those two losses and get back on the saddle again. If the dog money was more appealing, then I’d feel it to be worth it. Right now, there are too many question marks on both sides.
