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You can take all of your science, drawings, film study and long-winded analogies and throw them away. No one loves detail more than me, and I think I have proven that over the years with my long-winded breakdowns.
With that said, I am also not one to waste peoples’ time with words that have no connectivity. This is one of those fights that from a skillset level, we can all agree who has the more polished and fundamentally sound wireframe, but sometimes it really doesn’t matter because the universe can change in a split second. That stands true in this matchup.
Ciryl Gane
Gane is a guy that is held in very high regard from the contender standpoint and with good reason. He has good technical striking, is well sized for the division, has power in all of his limbs and has not really shown any gaping holes as of yet.
With a record of 9-0. Gane has never tasted defeat even in his kickboxing career, which is a good thing, but it is also one of the biggest question marks in a fighter’s trajectory after their initial loss. Now is it possible that fighters will go their entire career undefeated? Sure, but the probability is highly unlikely.
I don’t really judge a fighter until there is resistance. You don’t know much about someone’s character until they are really forced to fight out of a bad situation, and we really haven’t seen Gane face that kind of adversity yet in his career. The easy part is winning, dictating the terms you want with no obstacles or resistance.
With that said, there will come a time where someone is going to make it difficult and make Gane tap into his own self-belief system in uncharted waters, and it is then wewill see the true character of Gane. Will that be in this fight? I am not certain, but he can’t escape adversity forever.
Derrick Lewis
Derrick Lewis has a lot in his corner for this fight, including Houston, Texas. You can rest assured that the arena’s infrastructure will be tested from the eruption of the crowd when he makes the walk on Saturday night. Houston loves Lewis to endless measures, and they will be behind him like never before.
To say that there is nothing to that would be foolish because people thrive off of human energy depending if it’s in their direction or not. From a stylistic matchup, this is not a strong one for Lewis at all. Gane is the better athlete, is sharper and is more fundamentally and technically sound.
The game plan should be simple: Keep moving, stay off the centerline, and don’t put yourself in a corner that you can’t escape; a game of Matador at its finest. The one area that can wash it all away like acid rain is the game-changing power of Lewis. Although he is an underrated athlete, Lewis knows what the ace in his pocket is, and he also knows when to pull it out.
I don’t care what belt you are, how seasoned you are, how good you think your chin is, and how bad you are beating him minute to minute. The human body is structured similarly in most cases, and there is only so much impact it can take before it shuts the switch to protect itself.
Derrick Lewis knows that it only takes one. When he fought Alexander Volkov, the world was on Volkov, and in my article I said, “All it takes is one.” I picked Lewis, and it looked horrible for my pick. He was getting beat from pillar to post for three rounds. Then, with 10 seconds left, Volkov opened up a window, and Lewis jumped through it with a cannon that dropped Volkov, giving Lewis the win with no time remaining on the clock.
How I See This Fight Shaking Out
My point here is, I don’t care who Lewis fights. He is always live and to bet a Derrick Lewis fight is pretty stupid. It truly is because regardless of how good a fighter is, if he ends up getting clipped, the chance of him recovering is slim.
I am picking Gane here because there is a path to beat Lewis while staying out of danger, and Gane checks the boxes in all the tools needed to do so, but to tilt the entire fight here is an understatement.
The Pick: Ciryl Gane
DFS Breakdown
- Lewis: $6800
- 100+ Points: 1 of 10
- Current Market Value: 4 of 10
- Hedge: 4 of 10
All it takes is one with Lewis. It doesn’t matter what round or where in the round. If he lands that kill switch, he is covering value.
- Gane: $9400
- 100+ Points: 2 of 4
- Current Market Value: 4 of 6
- Hedge: 5 of 10
Value won’t be easy here if Gane plays cautious. He is really going to have to play this fight a little mindful. One mistake and Lewis can take advantage of it it in seconds. Gane has to approach this fight differently. You can’t just be openly offensive against Lewis. This may call for him to sit back and play cat and mouse.
VEGAS: No bet
