The key to success in daily fantasy sports is research. With our Trends tool, research is easy.
Description
(Written the Friday before kickoff)
It’s Week 16. At this point in the season, there’s a lot we already know. We know which teams to pick on with which players, we know players’ roles within an offense, and we have a pretty good idea of which players are going to be highly and sparsely owned in a given week. It’s more difficult to uncover hidden gems now than it was earlier in the year, but it’s not impossible.
One thing we can do is look for players who have not gotten into the end zone recently, but who are expected to do well this week from a Plus/Minus perspective. The lack of recent touchdowns will make a player’s game log look less impressive, increasing the likelihood that a player will fly under the radar. Of course, touchdowns are not completely random and certain players have more touchdown equity than others. But still, we should be able to find strong matchups at reduced ownership, which is all you can really ask for in large guaranteed prize pools.
Trends
Link to this week’s running back trend
Link to this week’s wide receiver trend
At both RB and WR, I’m doing pretty much the same thing. I’m looking for players who have a low month-long TD market share and who rate strongly within their position in terms of FanDuel Pro Trends and Projected Plus/Minus.
The Matches
RB Matches
At the time of this writing, Theo Riddick seems unlikely to play this weekend, which means I’m mainly looking at James White, Frank Gore, and Jerick McKinnon.
White’s TD equity is clearly reduced due to the presence of LeGarrette Blount. White costs the minimum salary at his position and is expected to be less than one percent owned. Does he have any upside? White has not had more than three carries in a game since 10/16, but he has at least five targets in each game over that same time frame.
The Patriots will likely play with a lead for most of the game, but the Jets run defense has been one of the team’s primary strengths in 2016. The Patriots will probably stick with Blount even if he isn’t rushing for many yards per carry, but they could also lean more heavily on the short passing game as a supplement to the run. In that case, White would figure to be a primary beneficiary.
You can blame Matt Asiata for McKinnon’s zero percent TD market share. Although Adrian Peterson is out once again, McKinnon still has plenty of question marks surrounding his matchup. Like White, though, McKinnon has seen steady work in the passing game, and that’s where he has generated most of his recent value. Vegas currently has the Vikings listed as six-point underdogs, so McKinnon could once again see his fair share of targets.
Robert Turbin’s emergence as a TD vulture in Indianapolis has hurt Gore in recent weeks, but he still consistently sees 15-20 carries each week. Gore’s +5.73 Projected Plus/Minus ranks among the best scores at his position this week.
WR Matches
Everybody’s favorite Week 16 sleeper, Allen Robinson, is intriguing. After facing Denver, Minnesota, and Houston in consecutive weeks, Robinson has an easier matchup against the Titans. A-Rob has a +2.5 Projected Plus/Minus, and he’s still targeted heavily.
Julian Edelman has not seen fewer than 11 targets in a game in over a month, but he also hasn’t scored a TD since Thanksgiving.
Willie Snead was one of the few Saints who did not score a TD in last week’s 48-point outburst against the Cardinals, although he did have 11 targets in that game. Snead leads teammates Brandin Cooks and Michael Thomas with his +2.8 Projected Plus/Minus, even though they are projected for much higher ownership.
Results
(Written Sunday night after games)
RB Results
The three RBs each met their salary-based expectations, although White’s performance at minimum salary was probably the only GPP-usable score. White had only four targets, but he at least got into the end zone.
Gore’s carries were likely reduced a bit by game flow. Although the Colts lost by only eight points, they found themselves down 33-14 to start the fourth quarter. The Colts only rushing TD came from quarterback Andrew Luck.
WR Results
Robinson’s 147 receiving yards in this game doubled his season total. Not really, but you probably had to think about it for a second. Robinson didn’t score, but his +11 Plus/Minus performance wasn’t disappointing.
The Patriots annihilated the Jets. Jimmy Garoppolo came in for mop-up duty early in the fourth quarter, and the Patriots attempted only two passes for the rest of the game.
Snead did not have a rebound game, but he was still a fine GPP play based on the ownership numbers:
Cooks, you’ll remember, had zero targets in the Saints’ 49-point performance against the Rams in Week 12. The pendulum could have easily swung back in Snead’s favor this week, but it did not. As it turned out, Drew Brees threw a single passing touchdown and the recipient was Travaris Cadet.
Review
Overall, I’m pleased with how the trend performed when I consider player salaries, ownership, and fantasy production. There were no GPP-winning plays, but this trend has supplied those types of plays in the past. Listed below are the top performances in the 121-player sample, each of whom had less than seven percent ownership:
