Beginning in Week 1 of 2015, DraftKings lowered the pricing floor for tight ends from $3000 to $2500. With the total $50,000 salary cap remaining the same, there is now a built-in $500 savings in 2015 when you select a punt tight end compared to last season. With two weeks in the books, I want to take a look at what this has meant performance-wise to not only punt tight ends, but the position as a whole on DraftKings.
Before we do that, let’s think about why DraftKings lowered the pricing floor this season. We may not know for sure, but my theory is that DK felt tight ends were a little overpriced previously. I think usually when you take a punt tight end, you’re really hoping for a touchdown. The thinking is not usually, “Wow, top receiving option is out this week, so punt tight end is going to get like 10 targets and dominate in the passing game.”
That type of scenario is possible with some punt wide receivers, though. Here are a few minimum-priced wide receivers in 2014 who put up huge yardage numbers in a game they were listed at $3000 or $3100: Donte Moncrief, Allen Hurns, Harry Douglas, Davante Adams, and many more. These guys each had the potential to receive a bunch of targets and accumulate yardage in the passing game due to opportunity created by an injury or promotion. This is different than a Dwayne Allen or Scott Chandler, “Please just get in the end zone” type of play, especially in full-point-PPR (not to mention the yardage bonus on DK).
Let’s look at some specifics. Here’s the minimum-priced tight ends heading into Week 1 of 2014. As you can see, the list consists of backup and platoon tight ends:
Now, here is Week 1 of 2015 at the $3100 and below price point. There are several unquestioned starters among the group:
So let’s see if this discount applies at all price levels in 2015. I would argue that Gronk has never been a better play in DFS than he is right now. Jimmy Graham has had a raincloud over his head since coming to Seattle (and wet season doesn’t even start until November) and Travis Kelce might be in the process of bursting onto the scene, but has not yet fully burst onto it. Gronk is currently #3 in PPR scoring among all positions and is clearly sitting alone at the top of the mountain at tight end.
Yet, if we look at his historical pricing on DK, he was more expensive than his current price ($7400) six times in 2014. The discount does seem to apply to tight ends at every tier.
Since the actual production has more or less stayed the same between 2014 and 2015, we would expect several tight ends to be among the top values each week on DraftKings since they are cheaper than ever. It’s still very early in the 2015 season, but so far, that has been the case. The position has been smashing value this season compared with last:
Also, if you look at CSURAM88’s model historically for Weeks 1 & 2, the tight end position has dominated the top rated flex plays going into the week:
Week 1:
Week 2:
Using a tight end at flex on DraftKings is a strategy that is receiving maybe a little more attention than it would have if Week 1 had not been “The Week of The Tight End” where every player except Greg Olsen seemed to have the game of their life at the position. At some point, the noise will die down, but the deals will still be there.
Flexing a tight end has always been a viable tournament strategy on DraftKings because you get to shoot for a cheap touchdown while differentiating your lineup from the masses. Is it now a cash game strategy too? It will be something to watch as the year goes on, but I think an argument could definitely be made. Whatever the case, tight ends at all price points are now in a better spot on DraftKings than they were prior and some of the best value so far in 2015 have been found at the tight end position.
