The 117th U.S. Open Championship will be played at Erin Hills in Erin, Wisconsin. The course is extremely long and reportedly can play at distances of up to 8,000 yards: In the course tour posted on usopen.com, the course measures out at 7,693 yards. There are four Par 4 holes longer than 500 yards and two Par 5 holes that eclipse 600 yards: This course is massive.
For more on Erin Hills, listen to what Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Colin Davy, and Bryan Mears have to say on this week’s PGA Daily Fantasy Flex. Also, be sure to check out our U.S. Open Dashboard throughout the week.
For the purposes of this study, we will use our exclusive Plus/Minus metric (for DraftKings) and PGA Trends tool first to look at all seven of the courses in our database to host PGA Tour events and play at more than 7,500 yards. Next, we will briefly examine two specific courses — Chambers Bay and Whistling Straits — because (like Erin Hills) they are long, links-style courses and have recently hosted major Tour events.
Long Courses in General
As DFS assets, golfers have been horrible at long courses, accumulating a -5.37 Plus/Minus with a 43.3 percent Consistency Rating:
For reference: All golfers at all courses on the PGA Tour have a collective -0.39 Plus/Minus with a 49.3 percent Consistency Rating.
Long-Term Metrics
Not surprisingly, Long-Term Driving Distance (LT DD) has been extremely important at these long courses. What’s somewhat surprising is just how important it has been. In fact, LT DD is the one and only Long-Term metric that has produced a positive Plus/Minus for the top 15 percent of golfers: 235 golfers, a +0.90 Plus/Minus, 55.3 percent Consistency Rating. The 377 golfers in the next percentile tier (70 to 84.9) haven’t done nearly as well (-3.24 Plus/Minus), and those ranked outside of the top 70 percent have been horrible (-6.80 Plus/Minus).
There is no other LT metric in which the top 15 percent of golfers have produced a positive Plus/Minus:
- Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score): -1.87
- Greens in Regulation (GIR): -5.00
- Driving Accuracy (DA): -6.60
- Scrambling (SC): -4.95
- Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg): -2.49
At first glance, all of these metrics look terrible, but LT Adj Rd Score and Bird Avg look bad because of their negative Plus/Minus values. When you consider, however, that their Plus/Minus values are actually higher than the baseline Plus/Minus — +3.50 and +2.88 higher — then we see that LT Adj Rd Score and Bird Avg are likely to be worthwhile metrics to leverage this week at Erin Hills.
Recent Metrics
What we see with LT metrics we also see with Recent (Rec) metrics: DD has a positive Plus/Minus, and Adj Rd Score and Bird Avg offer value compared to the baseline. Additionally, Rec GIR and SC offer some value.
Here’s how the top 15 percent of golfers in Rec metrics perform:
- Adj Rd Score: -1.06
- GIR: -1.73
- DD: +0.29
- DA: -5.93
- SC: -2.53
- Adj Bird Avg: -1.67
Again, it’s worth noting that — although their Plus/Minus values are negative — Rec Adj Rd Score and Bird Avg, GIR, and even SC improve upon the baseline. Also, it’s worth noting that — with the exception of the all-important DD — the Plus/Minus values for the top 15 percent in Rec metrics are significantly higher than they are for LT metrics.
A Few Names to Remember at Long Courses
Among golfers with at least 10 starts in our database at these seven long courses, Gary Woodland has been the most consistent performer. Woodland has exceeded his salary-based expectations in 10 of his 13 starts (76.9 percent) while producing a Plus/Minus of +8.47. That said, he scored only 18.5 DraftKings points at the 2015 U.S. Open played at Chambers Bay.
J.B. Holmes has the largest long-course Plus/Minus (+17.39) among golfers with at least 10 starts, and he also has had the highest Upside Rating (15 percent). Averaging 74.92 DraftKings points per tournament (PPT), Holmes has exceeded expectations in nine of 13 events. He averaged 76.75 PPT at the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay and the 2015 PGA Championship at Whistling Straits.
Justin Rose is similar to Holmes with 72.63 PPT at long courses, but he has a much lower Plus/Minus at +3.10 and has been much less consistent, failing to meet salary-based expectations in six of 12 outings. When Rose hits, though, he has hit big, scoring at least 91.5 PPT in five of his six positive Plus/Minus tournaments.
Long Courses at Recent Major Events
In our database, Chambers Bay and Whistling Straits are as close as we can get to Erin Hills. They both have long, links-style layouts, and they both hosted major events in 2015. Unfortunately, golfers at the 2015 U.S. Open and PGA Championship performed abominably from a salary-adjusted perspective:
Of course, not all golfers are these events did poorly. The top 15 percent of golfers in LT Adj Bird Avg did incredibly well with a +2.11 Plus/Minus and 58 percent Consistency Rating. No other LT metric came close to delivering this type of return. Also, the top 15 percent of golfers in LT DD had a -1.66 Plus/Minus, which is also a large improvement on the Chambers Bay and Whistling Straits baseline. Conversely, the top 15 percent of golfers in LT DA underperformed the baseline with a filthy -10.11 Plus/Minus. Being accurate at these monster courses has not provided any kind of value.
Golfers coming into these events in good form have performed incredibly well. For instance, the top five percent of golfers in Rec Adj Rd Score have a massive +9.64 Plus/Minus. The top 15 percent in other Rec metrics have also had positive Plus/Minus values:
- DD: +5.20
- Adj Bird Avg: +2.50
- SC: +0.22
I don’t want to make too much of just two events, but it’s probably worth knowing that Tony Finau had the highest PPT average (83.25) among positive Plus/Minus golfers at Chambers Bay and Whistling Straits. Branden Grace had the highest Plus/Minus (+47.3) among golfers who exceed expectations at both the 2015 U.S. Open and PGA Championship.
Conclusion
According to our data, golfers ranked inside the top 15 percent in LT DD have provided the most value and consistency at long courses. LT Adj Rd Score and Bird Avg have also been significant. While LT and Rec DA is theoretically desirable, in actuality it has been overrated. Other Rec metrics, though, have provided great value. In fact, the numbers suggest that focusing on Rec (rather than LT) data has been the optimal way to find value at long courses historically and at those hosting major events more recently.
