Earlier this month, I wrote a piece on the daily fantasy sports impact of the London NFL games. This piece can be thought of as an updated version of that one.
Is there a need to talk about the London games? Yes, because we’re all degenerates. Let’s just admit that and move on to the data.
The Games
We are in our 10th year of having NFL games played across the pond. In 2007-2012, there was one game per year. In 2013, a second game was added and since 2014 there have been three games per year — all of them at Wembley Stadium, each one being played no earlier than late September and no later than early November.
In total, 15 games have been played there since 2007.
• 2007: Giants-Dolphins – 48.0 Over/Under, Giants -10, Giants 13-10, Dolphins cover
• 2008: Chargers-Saints – 45.5 Over/Under, Chargers -3, Saints 37-32, Saints cover
• 2009: Patriots-Buccaneers – 44.5 Over/Under, Patriots -15.5, Patriots 35-7, Patriots cover
• 2010: Broncos-49ers – 41.5 Over/Under, 49ers -2.5, 49ers 24-16, 49ers cover
• 2011: Bears-Buccaneers – 44.0 Over/Under, Bears -2.0, Bears 24-18, Bears cover
• 2012: Patriots-Rams – 46.0 Over/Under, Patriots -7.0, Patriots 45-7, Patriots cover
• 2013: Steelers-Vikings – 41.5 Over/Under, Steelers -3.0, Vikings 34-27, Vikings cover
• 2013: 49ers-Jaguars – 40.0 Over/Under, 49ers -14.5, 49ers 42-10, 49ers cover
• 2014: Dolphins-Raiders – 40.5 Over/Under, Dolphins -3.5, Dolphins 38-14, Dolphins cover
• 2014: Lions-Falcons – 45.5 Over/Under, Lions -3.5, Lions 22-21, Falcons cover
• 2014: Cowboys-Jaguars – 45.0 Over/Under, Cowboys -7.5, Cowboys 31-17, Cowboys cover
• 2015: Jets-Dolphins – 42.0 Over/Under, Jets -1.5, Jets 27-14, Jets cover
• 2015: Bills-Jaguars – 41.0 Over/Under, Bills -4.0, Jaguars 34-31, Jaguars cover
• 2015: Lions-Chiefs – 45.0 Over/Under, Chiefs -3.5, Chiefs 45-10, Chiefs cover
• 2016: Colts-Jaguars – 48.0 Over/Under, Jaguars -1.0, Jaguars 30-27, Jaguars cover
At first glance, we can see that the London games have produced a 9/6 Over/Under split across the last decade. In particular, since 2012 — when NFL scoring started to escalate — the Over has been hit in eight of 10 games.
The underdog has either covered or won the contest outright five times.
Now let’s dig a little deeper.
What Happens in London Stays in London
If you compare the Vegas numbers with the actual performance data, we can get a pretty good sense of what the London games historically offer to DFS players.
In short, they offer lots of points. And not just points, but points that Vegas didn’t see coming. London games offer valuable points.
Over the 15 London games, the average final total has been 49.47 points, exceeding the Over/Under by 5.60 points (12.77 percent). That’s substantial.
Since 2012, the numbers have been even higher. In 10 London games, the final total has been an absurd average of 52.60 points, exceeding the Over/Under by 9.15 points (21.06 percent).
There’s Nothing Like Being Favored on the Road at a Place That Isn’t Your Opponent’s Home
Over the 15 London games, the average implied totals for the favorites and underdogs have been 24.67 and 19.20 points. The favorites have outperformed their implied totals by 6.20 points (25.14 percent) while the dogs have underperformed by 0.60 points (-3.12 percent). In other words, since 2007, the favorites have collectively been responsible for all (and then some) of the London game excess production.
What do we see since 2012? Something very similar except even more extreme. In the 10 London games in the last half decade, the favorites and dogs have been implied to score 24.18 and 19.28 points — implied totals that are comparable to those for the entire sample since 2007, by the way.
Favorites massively overperform, surpassing their implied totals by 9.33 points (38.57 percent). And the dogs underperform by 0.17 points (-0.91 percent). Once again, since 2012, the favorites have been responsible for more than 100 percent of the extra London production.
The DFS Implications
Just so you know, what I’m about to show you definitely is NSFW. It’s DFS pornography at its purest/dirtiest.
Here’s how favored quarterbacks have done in England since 2014 (the first year of our database):
I don’t mean to channel Office Space, but if I could hook up a threesome with that Plus/Minus and Consistency . . . you don’t need me to finish that sentence.
And what about the London underdog QBs? Honestly, there’s too much red for me to show it to you. I’m scared it would hurt your eyes. Out of the seven underdog QBs to start in London, only one has had a positive Plus/Minus: Matt Ryan in 2014.
This general trend — favorites provide outsized value while underdogs underwhelm — we also see at the running back and wide receiver positions. Even No. 2 RBs and WRs on favorites have provided value.
See for yourself using our free Trends tool. The edge that has been available in the past by rostering London favorites has been significant.
A Proper Jane Austen Villain: Mr. Twickenham
In case you were unaware, this week the Rams will ‘host’ the Giants of New York(shire) in London.
And, as usual, the game will be played at Wembley St — wait . . . what the hell are the Brits thinking?
We have 15 games of data for Wembley Stadium — with its horrible (but now predictable) field conditions — and now the NFL is playing its first game at another venue in London: Twickenham Stadium, which has never hosted any athletic events other than rugby matches for the entirety of its 107 years.
And so we must face a question that will become all the more pertinent in the coming years: Is the data we have relevant to all London games or only to games at Wembley? It’s possible that the decade-long data we have is useful only for Wembley.
Both Wembley and Twickenham are in London, but they’re in different parts of the city, they have different designs and accommodations for the players, and they also might have different consistencies of surface even though they both use Desso GrassMaster.
This matters not only for Week 7 but also for the future. The NFL has agreed to play at least three games at Twickenham over the course of this season and the next two seasons. The NFL has also agreed to play at least two games at Wembley each year through the 2020 season. And starting in 2018 the NFL intends to play at least two games per year at the rebuilt White Hart Lane (still in London), the home of the Premier League’s Tottenham Hotspur.
So in 2018 it’s possible that we could have at least five London games at three different stadia.
D*mn right, I said “stadia” — that’s how outrageous this situation is.
- Very soon, the sample of London data (already problematic in that it’s small) might become much less interpretable.
- This weekend marks the true beginning of the NFL’s expansion into London.
Within a decade, the NFL will be playing eight London games at various venues across the city. By that point it won’t be a stretch for the NFL to say, “Hey, we’re already playing a season’s worth of home games here. Let’s give London a home team.”
It’s happening.
The Implications for Week 7
You can get exposure to this week’s London game in either the 15-game Thursday slate or the two-game Thu/Sun mini-slate.
Macro historical trends aren’t everything, but they mean more than most people realize.
With that in mind, I’m not outright recommending that at all costs you play Eli Manning, Rashad Jennings, Bobby Rainey, Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, and Victor Cruz.
I’m also not saying that you must fade Case Keenum, Todd Gurley, Tavon Austin, and Kenny Britt.
I’m just saying that . . .
F*ck it. Play the Giants and fade the Rams. (Probably.)
