Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Padres (+108) at Pirates (-117) — 7:05 PM EST
Pirates out: Francisco Cervelli (swollen finger)
Pirates in: Elias Diaz
Francisco Cervelli jammed his finger while diving back into a base Thursday night, so Elias Diaz will catch and bat sixth for a Pirates lineup currently implied to score four runs. Both offenses will have to deal with estimated wind gusts of 12 miles per hour coming in from left field, but an estimated 15 percent chance of precipitation indicates the game should be played without interruption. The Pirates will have their hands full with Tyson Ross, who has allowed just one run in four of his last six starts. He’ll take on a Pirates lineup that has combined to post a .283 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – the second-lowest mark in Friday’s main slate. Still, Ross will need to do a better job limiting big hits, as he ranks among the main slate’s bottom-four pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Overall, every Pirates position player has posted positive ISO splits vs. righties over the past 12 months with the exception of Colin Moran and Diaz.
Diamondbacks (+131) at Mets (-142) — 7:10 PM EST
Diamondbacks in: Jake Lamb
Jake Lamb was activated off the disabled list and will bat third against the Mets and right-hander Jacob deGrom on Friday. Daniel Descalso will shift to shortstop and Nick Ahmed will fall out of the lineup. The Diamondbacks are presently implied to score 3.2 runs, the second-lowest mark in the main slate, but they do possess the second-highest team road ISO (0.197) this season. Additionally, deGrom was pulled after 45 pitches in his last start. There’s been no reported pitch count for Friday’s game, and the Diamondbacks also have one of the highest road strikeout rates. deGrom presently has an 8.7 K Prediction, and he costs less than $10,000 on DraftKings for the first time in over a year. He’s projected to be among the highest-owned pitchers in tournaments, but caution may be warranted as it’s his second start since landing on the disabled list with a hyperextended right elbow.
Phillies (+110) at Cardinals (-119) — 8:15 PM EST
Cardinals out: Paul DeJong (fractured left hand)
Cardinals in: Jedd Gyorko
Paul DeJong has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to a fractured left hand. The Cardinals will roll with Tommy Pham, Matt Carpenter, and Jose Martinez at the top of their order. Jedd Gyorko will fill in at shortstop and bat fifth, although he joins Martinez as the only batters in the lineup with negative ISO and wOBA splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. They’re currently implied to score just 3.9 runs against the Phillies, who will look to get another solid start from Jake Arrieta. Overall, Arrieta has pitched at least six innings and allowed one or less runs in four of his last five starts. He’s historically pitched well against the Cardinals, averaging 19.6 DraftKings points per game with a +2.37 Plus/Minus and a 53.3 percent Consistency Rating in 15 starts against his ex-divisional rival since 2014. Arrieta carries a 5.8 K Prediction, although he’s only surpassed the five-strikeout threshold once this season.
Rockies (+105) at Giants (-114) — 10:15 PM EST
Giants out: Brandon Belt (knee)
Giants in: Nick Hundley
Brandon Belt is dealing with a stiff knee and will receive a day off on Friday as Buster Posey moves to first base. Nick Hundley will enter the lineup at catcher and hit fifth, and the Giants are currently implied to score 4.4 runs. Gorkys Hernandez will remain in the leadoff spot and makes for a strong value play priced at the minimum $2,000 on FanDuel. Despite the worst Park Factor out of any hitters in Friday’s slate, Andrew McCutchen and Posey both profile as intriguing tournament options with historically positive splits against left-handed pitchers. Hundley leads the team with a .412 wOBA against lefties and will likely carry low ownership even with a favorable salary of just $2,400 on FanDuel.
Rays (+135) at Angels (-146) — 10:07 PM EST
Angels out: Justin Upton (hand)
Angels in: Michael Hermosillo
Justin Upton was hit by a pitch in the sixth inning on Thursday and will be held out of Friday’s lineup against the Rays. Initial X-rays revealed no fracture and the team has listed him day-to-day. In his absence, Michael Hermosillo will make his major league debut in right field and hit ninth. Andrelton Simmons has moved all the way up to the two-hole while Mike Trout replaces Upton in the three-hole, and Shohei Ohtani will hit fifth against left-handed pitcher Blake Snell. Zack Cozart is the only Angels hitter to record positive recent batted-ball statistics and and currently carries the second-highest rating at third base in the Bales Model on FanDuel.
Pictured above: Jake Lamb.
Photo credit: Rick Scuteri – USA TODAY Sports
