The predictability of peripheral stats like blocked shots and shots on goal is appealing in an event-based sport like hockey. Players who shoot the puck are beloved in DFS because shots lead to goals, but is there an edge to be gained by searching exclusively for players who block shots?
Since defensemen block the most shots among skaters, let’s look at the position closer with our Trends tool. As always, only players on the power play (PP) were considered in this study.
Baseline Trends
There is value in targeting centers who block shots, but the event is still far more common for defensemen. Here are players in the 70-99th percentile of blocked shots (on FanDuel):
Here’s the baseline for PP defensemen on FD:
Unsurprisingly, defensemen who meet the 70th-percentile threshold for blocked shots see a slight increase in value. Let’s dig deeper by taking these filters a step further.
Short-Term vs.Long-Term Blocked Shots for Defensemen
Is there a way to leverage blocked shots by analyzing discrepancies at the position between short-term and long-term statistics? And what about cheap defensemen in recently expanded roles?
The following trends compare defensemen in the 90th percentile for blocked shots. “BLK %” is the long-term (12-month) filter; “BLK % – Month,” the short-term (one-month) filter.
There’s not a huge edge so far. With salary adjustments, PP defensemen who block a lot of shots provide similar value over the long as they do the short term.
What happens when we break things down by salary?
As you can see, the salary tails typically provide the most value at defenseman. If we are considering only blocked shots, there isn’t a significant difference in long-term versus short-term value.
Paying up at defenseman typically provides the most value from a Plus/Minus perspective, but there are some cheap defensemen who provide value through the volume of shots they block.
There are a few other items to point out about these charts:
- I have faded the samples with counts under 50. Narrow ranges can be useful, but we want to be careful not to get carried away.
- Cheap shot blockers provide a ton of value both over the long and short term. Pricing inefficiencies are common in NHL
- The Consistency Ratings are pretty solid across the board, but defensemen priced above $6,800 have a clear edge.
Increased Blocked Shots in the Short Term
One of the ways to leverage our Trends tool is to screen for players who are recently outproducing their long-term output. For example, you can use our Time On Ice (TOI) filter to find value in forwards with recently expanded roles if you also filter by TOI-Month.
So what about defensemen who are blocking more shots lately?
In general, targeting defensemen who have seen short-term spike in blocked shots doesn’t provide an edge. There are some small pockets of production, but in general these short-term shot blockers are inconsistent. It is possible, though, that the players in the $5,600 – $6,100 range could be useful alternatives in lineups in which paying up or down is not optimal.
Conclusion
They aren’t common, but cheap defensemen who are elite shot-blockers provide value. Aside from that, stick to the salary tails and don’t be afraid to pay up at defensemen.
