I don’t really say too much on Twitter, but I do love watching DFS players get into arguments on social media, especially if TommyG is on one side of the debate. A little while ago, he, DraftCheat, TheSeige, and some other guys were discussing whether or not knuckleball pitchers are superior with the wind blowing out, which would generally be bad for most other types of pitchers.
Here’s some of the conversation:
When @TommyG joins the other side of your debate about predicting pitcher performance. pic.twitter.com/zNdwW30tGT
— Peter Christensen (@draftcheat) July 22, 2016
It seems like the argument can be summed up as one side claiming wind blowing out does indeed help knuckleballers because those pitchers claim they prefer it, and the other side asking for more evidence of it. I’m not sure anyone has argued that wind blowing out is a negative for knuckleball pitchers, but just that they don’t know and need some statistical proof, which I agree is a good practice. There are lots of things athletes say that make no fucking sense at all.
I didn’t really think about the effect of wind direction on knuckleball pitchers prior to this, but it’s a pretty interesting idea. We can use MLB Trends to test it.
Steven Wright
First, let’s start with Steven Wright. Here’s a look at his FanDuel performance in the 30 career games he has started.
Wright has been just a quality pitcher overall, averaging 33.43 points per game – 5.58 per game more than we’d expect based on his FanDuel salaries. He’s surpassed those salary-based expectations in 20 of 30 starts.
Now here’s what happens in games in which the wind is blowing out (to either left, center, or right):
Wright’s expected points are a bit higher in these 16 games – which could very well just be noise based on opponents – but he’s scored 40.50 FanDuel points per game, which is 10.99 higher than expected. He’s surpassed the expected point total in 75.0% of those starts. That’s a pretty serious jump.
And finally, here are his starts with the wind blowing out at 5mph or faster:
In Wright’s eight starts with the wind blowing out at least 5mph, he’s scored 41.75 FanDuel points with a Plus/Minus of 12.29. At 6mph or greater, the totals jump to 45.0 points per game and a 16.76 Plus/Minus, although that sample is only four games.
R.A. Dickey
Now let’s look at R.A. Dickey. Here’s his FanDuel performance since 2012.
Dickey has scored an average of 32.42 FanDuel points with a 2.07 Plus/Minus and 51.0% Consistency.
And with the wind blowing out to center, left, or right:
Dickey has scored more points, but barely. His average points per game, Plus/Minus, and Consistency are all relatively unchanged.
However, it’s worth noting that, like Wright, his performance seems better when the wind is faster. His FanDuel PPG jumps to 36.29 (with a +5.55 Plus/Minus) when the wind is at least 7mph, and a line of 40.42/9.39 with wind blowing out at double-digits. He’s started 12 games in the latter scenario.
Do knuckleball pitchers perform better with the wind blowing out? It could be variance, but the results suggest the answer is probably yes, especially when you are dealing with winds above just a few miles per hour. Wright’s numbers in particular are very intriguing. It also fits with the narrative of knuckleballs moving more when being held up and the pitchers themselves claiming they prefer it.
So who won the Twitter argument? The obvious answer is no one since it’s grown men arguing about the flight of a baseball in wind. The more subtle answer is both; the guys on the pro side were validated, while the guys on the skeptical side just wanted data.
