The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
Sea Island Golf Club on St. Simons Island, Georgia, has hosted every edition of the RSM Classic since 2010. Three of four rounds will be played on the Seaside Course, and every golfer will play one of their first two rounds on the Par 72 Plantation Course. Hump loves mafia characters like Jimmy Conway, Henry Hill, Tommy DeVito, Nicky Santoro, and Sonny LoSpecchio, but this week you’re likely to hear about the “Sea Island Mafia” — a bunch of very rich dudes who play golf, live on St. Simons Island, and call Davis Love III their godfather.
The Course
The Seaside Course — where three of four rounds, including both rounds after the cut, are played — is a Tom Fazio-redesigned Par 70 course playing at 7,005 yards that was created from Harry Colt’s and Charles Alison’s original nine-hole links style course designed way back in 1929. This tournament is typically a nail-biter, decided by one shot with excellent scoring. Last year’s 36-hole cut was at five-under par, and the champion was decided in a five-man playoff on Monday.
As always, I backtested all metrics within our PGA Models to find which ones have been valuable at this track. Per the Trends tool, here is how the top-20 percent of golfers in various metrics have done (in Plus/Minus valuation) at Sea Island. Historically, the course has yielded averages of 53.37 DraftKings points and a +4.04 Plus/Minus with 53.6 percent Consistency to the field.
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score): +8.54
- Long-Term Greens In Regulation (GIR): +2.53
- Long-Term Driving Distance (DD): +4.91
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy (DA): -0.07
- Long-Term Scrambling (SC): +5.84
- Long-Term Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg): +5.34
- Long-Term Adjusted Bogeys Per Tournament (Adj Bogey Avg): +2.38
- Recent Adj Rd Score: +5.86
- Recent GIR: +3.69
- Recent DD: +6.40
- Recent DA: +5.09
- Recent SC: +8.11
- Recent Adj Bird Avg: +2.91
Because Sea Island is known as a less-than-driver course where players club down, I find the results for LT DA and Recent DD very interesting. Instead of focusing on accurate (and typically shorter) players, perhaps using our Recent Driving metrics to find some players who have been hitting it both long and accurately off the tee can give you a leg up in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) this week.
The Studs
Kevin Kisner ($11,600) set the tournament scoring record (260) here on his way to a win in 2015 and currently checks in with the second-best odds to win (5.3 percent). In three events here since 2014, Kisner has averaged 91.17 points per tournament (PPT) with a +31.71 Plus/Minus — the third-best Plus/Minus among golfers with three starts at this track. Kisner’s 69.0 LT Adj Rd Score ranks third, he is tied for eighth with his 13.5 LT Adj Bird Avg, and he is tied for 18th with his 61.1 LT SC percentage. Including his win in 2015, Kisner has two top-five finishes here in his last three starts.
Matt Kuchar ($11,100) has five top-25 finishes here in six starts, but he did miss the cut last year; he is tied for 11th among golfers with three or more starts here with his 69.9 Course Adjusted Round Score. Kuchar’s 68.6 LT Adj Rd Score leads the field, his 60.6 LT SC percentage ranks 23rd, and he is tied for 10th overall with his 13.4 LT Adj Bird Avg. Kuchar finished 31st at the HSBC Champions, where he posted a very impressive 76.4 GIR percentage. Kuchar was owned at a massive 43.2 percent at that tournament, and he played this event at 25.2 percent ownership last year, when he produced 29.5 DraftKings points and a -42.61 Plus/Minus. Despite that ugly finish, Kuchar is likely to be nice and chalky again this week. You can check out player exposure and much more with our amazing PGA Contests Dashboard.
Brian Harman ($11,000) currently has the best odds to win (5.9 percent), but he has missed the cut here each of the last two years. In two starts this season, however, Harman has finished fifth (CJ Cup) and eighth (HSBC Champions); his 67.9 Recent Adj Rd Score leads the field. Harman’s 78.5 Recent GIR percentage is tops among golfers with more than one start the past six weeks, during which time he has posted a 14.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg.
The Value Plays
One way to use FantasyLabs to find potential value golfers in our Models is to leverage our LT Adj Rd Score metric. If you sort the field by LT Adj Rd Score, you are looking at a list of players who have been the best golfers over the past 75 weeks. Among these golfers, those who have high Adj Rd Scores and low salaries make great value plays.
Hudson Swafford ($7,300) is the only player in the field with a top-13 LT Adj Rd Score (69.7) and a salary below $7,700. Swafford also has a top-15 LT Adj Bird Avg (13.2) and the 35th-best LT GIR percentage (67.9). Swafford has two missed cuts here in four starts but also finished 12th in 2014 and was 36th last year.
Austin Cook ($7,300) is 3/3 in cuts made this season, ranks fourth with his 63.4 LT SC percentage, ranks sixth with his 14.0 LT Adj Bird Avg, and is tied for third with his impressive 72.6 LT GIR percentage. So far this season, Cook has produced a +12.90 Plus/Minus, and his salary this week is as low as it has been in any PGA Tour event.
Mackenzie Hughes ($6,800) won this event last year in a playoff after shooting all four rounds under par, including an opening-round 61. His price as the defending champion is only $100 higher than it was last year.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Jonathan Byrd ($7,100): The 39-year-old winner of the Web.com Tour Championship and #SeaIslandMafia member works out with Sea Island’s Director of Golf Fitness, Randy Myers, and is pumped to be back playing on the PGA Tour, where he has won five times. Byrd finished 61st in last week’s OHL Classic at near invisible 0.1 percent ownership.
J.T. Poston ($7,200): Another local #SeaIslandMafia consigliere, Poston has started off the new season on a tear with fourth- and 14th-place finishes in his last two starts. Poston is tied for 13th with his 69.2 Recent Adj Rd Score, and his 16.3 Recent Adj Bird Avg ranks eighth overall.
