This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze five key NHL players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Today we have a four-game slate that starts at 7:00 p.m. ET.
All data pulled from HockeyViz.com, Corsica.Hockey, or NaturalStatTrick.com unless otherwise specified.
Erik Karlsson ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
After starting off the season with 17 points in his first 11 games, Karlsson has now gone pointless in eight straight contests. Expect this to live in the minds of DFS players, who love their recency stats. But there’s reason to believe this is just a blip on the radar. Karlsson is still playing like the best offensive defenseman in the NHL, and of late, he has actually been very involved offensively, attempting nearly seven shots per game over the past 10 days. Incredibly, Karlsson had a -3 plus/minus and zero points in the Senators’ thrilling 6-5 over the Islanders. This gives another reason to expect DFS players to talk themselves out of Karlsson, but he doesn’t need to score multiple points to be a great play. An underrated part of Karlsson’s DFS profile is his shot blocking. Last season, in addition to finishing third in points and sixth in shots on goal, Karlsson ranked second among defensemen in blocked shots. It could be especially lucrative to pair Karlsson with Mike Hoffman tonight. They’re both on Ottawa’s power-play unit and have high floors at very reasonable prices on both sites. Karlsson’s slump will not last forever, so double down on the ownership discount until it ends.
Tyler Seguin ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
Seguin is far and away the top-rated center by my Labs Model despite being on the road in a back-to-back situation. Seguin has one of the highest shot floors of any player in the league. With Seguin, Alexander Radulov and Jamie Benn reunited, the Stars have been relying heavily on them for offense the past couple of games. Exposure to this trio is almost mandatory in cash games. Seguin, with his extremely high floor and massive upside, is my top overall play on this slate.
Derek Stepan ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
Stepan has been on a roll. He scored 7 DraftKings points on the back of a goal and an assist. And in his 10 games before that, he averaged 3.5 FPPG, despite scoring on just 3.4% of his shots. Arizona is simply better than the way they started the season, and the Golden Knights are not nearly as good as they have played in their first quarter of action. Stepan’s sub-$5,000 price does not reflect an above-average shooter playing an elite first-line-center role against a bad team. Look at stacking Arizona in this matchup by grabbing Stepan with linemate Brendan Perlini. And if you want further exposure to the power play, include Oliver Ekman-Larsson (who has been incredible as of late) and/or Clayton Keller. Arizona’s top players make for great values, perfect for fitting in any number of studs on this slate.
J.T Compher ($3,400 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel)
Compher will get run on Colorado’s top line in the absence of Gabriel Landeskog, who still serving his four-game suspension. The 22-year-old has been trending upward as of late, averaging more than five shots per game over the past 10 days (league average is a shade under three) while playing nearly 19 minutes per game. At only $3,400 on DraftKings and $3,800 on Fanduel, Compher makes for a fantastic play in all formats. He’s maintained a regular role on the first power play while Landeskog has been out, so stacking him with even-strength linemates Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen gives you a great tournament stack.
Colin Miller ($3,500 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel)
Miller has been an unheralded DFS producer so far this season, playing a shade under 20 minutes per night with a regular player-play role for the upstart Golden Knights. What makes Miller an excellent play is his propensity to shoot. This season, only Brent Burns, Dougie Hamilton, and Shayne Gostisbehere have better shot rates among defensemen. His 18.3 iCorsi/60 is an elite mark (for context, it would’ve ranked second overall last season). Coming off a multi-point performance in Winnipeg on Thursday, Miller is one of the top values on this Sunday slate of action. He’ll face a Coyotes team that, as mentioned earlier, has been playing better as of late but is still very vulnerable.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
