The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
DraftKings and FanDuel are each offering large guaranteed prize pools for Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors at 9 p.m. ET.
FanDuel’s contests feature five-man rosters, a $60,000 cap and scoring multipliers for whichever player you designate as the MVP (2x), Star (1.5x), and Pro (1.2x). FanDuel’s multipliers introduce more lineup combinations and should help to limit some of the all-too-common ties that occur in these contests.DraftKings is debuting a new format for their biggest tournament: Showdown Captain Mode. Instead of the traditional six-man roster, you’ll now have to choose one captain, who scores 1.5x points but also costs 1.5x his traditional salary. Choosing a high-priced player means you’ll have to sacrifice more of your available cap space but gives you added upside if you choose the correct stud. Choosing a low-priced player limits how many additional points your captain will score but allows you to create a more balanced roster. It’s a really cool idea by DraftKings and should lead to a lot of unique lineups despite the limited player pool.
Golden State Warriors (-4.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers | O/U: 215.5
9 p.m. ET | ABC
The Warriors are on the brink of winning their third title in four years, which is something that has only been previously accomplished by the Jordan Bulls, the Kobe/Shaq Lakers, the Magic/Kareem Lakers, and the Bill Russell Celtics. They own a 3-0 lead in the series after winning Game 3 behind a dominant performance from Kevin Durant and are currently 4.5-point favorites to complete the sweep tonight. The public clearly believes the Cavs are done, as a whopping 62% of the bets and 84% of the money is currently coming in on the Warriors as a small road favorite.
For more betting information on this game, make sure to check out all of our coverage at The Action Network. All of our PRO content, which usually requires a subscription, will be free for tonight’s contest!
Warriors (110 implied points)
The fact that the Warriors were able to win Game 3 is a testament to how many weapons this team possesses. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson were awful, scoring just 21 combined points on 7-of-27 shooting, but Kevin Durant was more than ready to pick up the slack, posting 43 points with 13 rebounds and seven assists, resulting in a monster 69.1 DraftKings points. You could not win without him in the Captain spot in Game 3, and he’s moved to a strong favorite to take home his second straight Finals MVP.
Durant should take a step back in the scoring department Friday after shooting an unreal 65.2% from the field and 66.7% from 3-point range in Game 3, but his floor remains high due to his contributions in the peripheral categories. He’s averaged 10.3 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 2.4 “stocks” (steals plus blocks) against the Cavaliers, which makes him a safe investment at his current price point. He will likely be a popular choice at the Captain slot.
Steph Curry shot just 1-of-10 from 3-point range in Game 3, but his one make was a big one, putting the Warriors up by four with under three minutes left in the game, a lead which they wouldn’t relinquish for the rest of the game. Curry is one of the best shooters in the history of the NBA, and he’ll likely rebound in that department in Game 4. Nine of his 10 three-pointers in Game 3 were classified as “open” or “wide open” per NBA.com, and he shot 44.9% on those looks during the regular season. He still has an outside shot at winning his first Finals MVP, and I expect him to make a go at it tonight.
Klay Thompson has been quiet through the first three games of this series, averaging just 26.9 DraftKings points per game. He’s underperformed his regular season scoring average per 100 possessions when matched up with George Hill, J.R. Smith, and LeBron James, and he’s posted an average usage rate of just 18.3%. If he’s not scoring the ball at a high rate, it’s going to be hard for Thompson to return value given his lack of production in the peripheral categories.
Game 4 could be a good time to buy-low on Draymond Green. He’s been priced down to $8,200 on DraftKings, which is his lowest price point of the entire series. He scored just 29.0 DraftKings points in Game 3. Grabbing just two rebounds in that contest dragged down his line, but he’s averaged 11 rebounds per game during the postseason and should improve in that department Friday.
Andre Iguodala made his return for the Warriors in Game 4 but was limited to just 22 minutes. He’ll likely remain somewhat limited with Golden State in the driver’s seat in this series, which makes him tough to trust at his current salary.
The big men for the Warriors are both intriguing options. JaVale McGee has given them very productive minutes over the past two games, averaging 16.88 DraftKings points per game. Unfortunately, he’s been priced up to $2,600, which is a concern given that he plays so few minutes.
Jordan Bell might be the more appealing option off the bench. He scored 19.5 DraftKings points in Game 3 and remains affordable at just $1,600.
Shaun Livingston rounds out the Warriors’ rotation, and he’s been extremely efficient during this series. He’s shot a ridiculous 13-of-14 from the field, with his only miss coming on a blocked shot. That said, it’s hard to trust him now that his salary has risen to $2,800 on DraftKings; he simply doesn’t offer much upside at that price point.
Cavaliers (105.5 implied points)
LeBron James has reached such crazy heights during this postseason that his Game 3 line of 33 points, 10 rebounds, and 11 assists actually felt a bit disappointing. It still resulted in 73.0 DraftKings points, and he’s averaged a ridiculous 70.9 DraftKings points per game during this series. The question with James is not whether you should roster him, but whether you should roster him as your Captain. That move hasn’t worked in each of the first three games of the series despite his ridiculous fantasy production, simply due to the fact that his salary is so much higher than every other player’s. If you roster James as Captain, it leaves you just an average of $5,200 for your remaining five slots, compared to $6,700 for Curry, $6,760 for Durant, or approximately $7,500 for Green or Kevin Love. There are enough value options available where rostering LeBron as the Captain could pay off, but odds are one of the other options will remain close enough in fantasy scoring to prove the superior choice.
Kevin Love had a dominant first half in Game 3, scoring 15 points and 10 rebounds, but he disappeared in the second half and finished with just 20 points and 13 rebounds for the game. The Cavs would be wise to keep Love more involved for the duration of Game 4. He’s scored at least 40.25 DraftKings points in each of the first three games of this series and has a lot of appeal at his current salary.
Rodney Hood went from an afterthought for the Cavs during the postseason to arguably their third-best player in Game 3. Hood scored 26.5 DraftKings points in just under 26 minutes, and he’ll likely play a big role again in Game 4. That said, Hood could be in line for regression after shooting a blistering 7-of-11 from the field in Game 3. It’s also worth noting he’s likely to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate. Hood still seems like an excellent value at just $2,200 on DraftKings, but it’s not crazy to consider fading him.
J.R. Smith is slightly more expensive than Hood, but his production seems much more sustainable. Smith has scored at least 20.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he’s shot just 32.3% from the field in those contests. He has the potential to post a big game if his shot starts falling; he was a significantly better shooter at home during the regular season.
Hood returning to the Cavs rotation limits the appeal for the rest of their guards. George Hill played just 27 minutes in Game 3, which was his lowest mark in his last 10 games. He’s the most expensive player on the Cavs outside of LeBron and Love, which makes him tough to roster.
Tristan Thompson remains a steady contributor for the Cavs and found himself in the winning DraftKings lineup for Game 3. That said, that game feels a bit like an outlier. Thompson is now significantly more expensive than some of the other value options and seems unlikely to eclipse the 20-fantasy point mark. If some of the top options have better games, some of the cheaper options will likely offer better value.
Jeff Green and Kyle Korver combined for just 28.5 minutes and 6.5 fantasy points, and neither figures to be much of a factor in Game 4.
Good luck tonight, and be sure to check out The Action Network for more in-depth NBA analysis.
Pictured Above: Draymond Green (23, left) and Steph Curry (right)
Photo Credit: Cary Edmondson – USA Today Sports
