Boilerplate Intro on Vegas Bargain Rating
I have been studying Vegas implied odds in daily fantasy golf for a couple of weeks now. What I’ve found is that, because of the correlation between DraftKings salaries and Vegas implied odds to win a tournament, using an extreme stars-and-scrubs lineup approach is optimal for PGA Tour DFS contests.
Because the correlation between Vegas odds and DK salaries is very strong, we can predict what a player’s salary should be based solely on Vegas odds. Measuring the difference between that number and a player’s actual salary, we can find inefficiencies in pricing and create essentially a “Vegas Bargain Rating” (VBR), which can show us the discount or premium available on any given golfer’s Upside.
Upside and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
The 2016 US Open
This week is unlike other weeks. For one, the overall correlation between DraftKings salaries and Vegas implied odds is lower than it usually is. The average R-squared value on a weekly basis is between 0.78 and 0.80, whereas this week it is about 0.75. The reason is obvious: DraftKings pricing is softer in Majors weeks.
Another difference is that Vegas odds are very dynamic in Majors weeks. There is minor line movement on regular PGA Tour events. There is major line movement for Majors. The most important movement takes place in the last day or two before the tournament, but we can already see how much odds have shifted: Jordan Spieth, for example, opened as the US Open favorite weeks ago but has since dropped behind both Jason Day and Rory McIlroy. His odds have fallen by 3.4 percentage points in that span.
And Spieth leads me to another interesting point . . .
The 2016 US Open Vegas Bargain Ratings
But first let me post the Vegas Bargain Ratings for this week.
Despite the highly negative movement on Spieth’s odds, he still boasts the third-best VBR in the field this week. It is obviously nowhere close to Day’s and McIlroy’s, given their similar pricing yet large differences in odds, but it is really important to note that Spieth is still a ‘Vegas Bargain’ despite his negative movement and despite his high salary. I’ve been on this horse for a while: The favorites are incredibly undervalued in terms of Upside.
Dustin Johnson and Then Some Overpriced Options
Outside of the top three, Johnson is the best value on the board. From there, we have a bunch of minimum-priced guys who benefit from the soft pricing this week. The normal “expected salary” for a golfer implied with 0.0% odds is much higher this week than usual.
Finally, the high-priced yet not-high-implied golfers — pretty much all the golfers between $8,000 and $10,000 — are the worst values in terms of Upside this week. This doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t ever roster them in tournaments. Instead, what it means is that if you are rostering a guy around $9,000 solely because of his Upside, you are forgoing a ton of it by taking that golfer instead of paying up the extra salary to get to Johnson, Spieth, McIlroy, or Day. Ownership levels can definitely impact this dynamic in tournaments, but in general if you pay down then you’ll be getting less Upside on a per-dollar basis.
Taking Down the Milly Maker
In order to take down the DraftKings Milly Maker this week, you will likely need to have all six of your golfers in the top 10 and definitely have the winner of the tournament. In a situation like this, it is more important than ever to find Upside to win the tournament. Vegas Bargain Rating shouldn’t be the definitive lineup-builder metric, but it can certainly help you visualize how to maximize your odds of creating the ultimate Milly Maker team.
