Before the attention shifts across the pond for the Scottish Open and The Open Championship in the next two weeks, the PGA TOUR has one more tournament on the main schedule in the U.S. This week’s stop at the John Deere Classic doesn’t have many big names in play, but it is still an important week for the fringe players competing for PGA TOUR pros competing for FedExCup Points just five weeks before the playoffs begin. It’s also a great week for fantasy golf since it’s a wide-open field with many players having a legitimate shot to take home the title. The top two players not already qualified also earn entry into The Open Championship in two weeks.
TPC Deere Run has hosted the John Deere Classic since 2000, so some players have plenty of history to consider here. Jordan Spieth broke through for his first PGA TOUR win on this course in 2013 and won again in 2015, and he’ll be returning to the field for the first time since that win in 2024. Spieth is the most expensive player remaining in the field after Patrick Cantlay was forced to withdraw due to injury. Defending champ Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im, and last week’s runner-up Aaron Rai are the other three players remaining with salaries of at least $10,000.
Even with a weaker field, this week’s tournament at TPC Deere Run should provide plenty of drama. The course is notable for its dramatic elevation changes and its history as an Arabian horse farm. It typically yields very low scores relative to par, giving us another birdie fest on tap this week. In each of the last 14 tournaments, the score has been at least -18, including last year when Straka finished -21. Typically, the course rewards players who are accurate off the tee, sharp with their wedge play, and streaky hot with their putter. Players will have to go very low to contend this week, so Strokes Gained: Approach and Birdie or Better % are two key metrics to consider.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Aaron Rai $10,000
Cantlay’s withdrawal leaves the top of this salary structure with high ownership projections. There are five players with ownership projections over 23%, and they are the five players with the highest salaries. As a result, getting leverage from any of the top options is a little tricky this week, but relatively speaking, Rai’s scoring projections outpace his ownership projection enough to make him my favorite play from this top tier.
Rai has the third-highest SimLeverage in the entire field. He has the third-highest Perfect% behind only Spieth and Straka and “only” the fifth-highest ownership projection. He has the second-highest ceiling median and floor projections in the field, and he also has the third-best odds to win this week and finish in the top 10, according to Vegas.
Last week, Rai finished just one shot short of forcing a playoff with Cameron Davis, and his driver off the deck on No. 14 was an impressive show of moxie and execution. His runner-up finish was his strongest showing of the PGA TOUR career, but he has been trending up with top 20s at the RBC Canadian Open and the U.S. Open as well.
Rai is making his tournament debut, which may be why his ownership is a little lower, but he has the perfect style of game for TPC Deere Run. He leads the field in Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the last 24 rounds and ranks third in Strokes Gained: Approach during that time. He is the kind of shotmaker that has had success on this track in the past, and if his putter cooperates, he should be in contention again this week.
Davis Thompson $9,600
Even after getting a bump in ownership projection following Cameron Davis’s withdrawal, Thompson has the fifth-highest SimLeverage in the field. I love the upside the 25-year-old brings to the table, and his ownership projection is very manageable at barely over 15%. He has the sixth-highest median, ceiling and floor projection in the field and the fourth-highest Perfect%.
Like Rai, Thompson has been trending up in the last several tournaments, seeking a breakthrough victory. Thompson has finished T27 or better in seven of his last nine events with missed cuts at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson and RBC Canadian Open his only misses. During that span, he finished tied for second at the Myrtle Beach Classic and the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week, along with a strong top-10 showing at the U.S. Open.
Thompson made the cut last year in his debut at TPC Deere Run, finishing T31. He does rely on his driver, but his approach game has also been excellent over the past few weeks. In his last 30 rounds, Thompson leads the entire field in Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He ranks second in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green over that span and seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach. If his putter heats up just a little bit, he could be this week’s breakthrough winner since the rest of his game is in such great shape for this track.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Kevin Yu $8,800
Yu finished in the top 10 last year at the John Deere Classic, and he is one of the best leverage plays in the field, according to both our sims and projections. Yu has the ninth-highest Perfect% in the entire field and the highest of all players under $9,000. He has the highest SimLeverage in the entire field since his ownership projection is under 5%.
Of the 145 players in the field with salaries under $9,000, Yu has the second-highest ceiling and median projections and the third-highest floor projection. While the 25-year-old from Chinese Taipei hasn’t been at the top of leaderboards the last few weeks like Thompson and Rai, he has been putting together a very solid season and trending up as he returns to TPC Deere Run.
Over the last 30 rounds, Yu ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach and second in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. He has struggled over that span with the putter, but he did gain strokes with the flat stick in two of his four rounds last week.
He finished T31 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which was his fourth straight made cut dating back to his T5 at the Myrtle Beach Classic. Even though this week isn’t an opposite-field event like that one, it has a similar field and birdie-fest feel. While he’s high-risk due to his putting, Yu brings a high enough ceiling to be a good play this week for GPP as pay-up leverage.
Mark Hubbard $8,400
Hubbard has been steady this season on the PGA TOUR but not spectacular. He comes in a little under the radar as a result, even though he has exceeded salary-based expectations in 15 of his 16 individual tournaments in 2024.
Of the players under $9,000, Hubbard has the third-highest ceiling and median projection and the second-highest floor projection. He has the fourth-highest Perfect% in that price range but only the 20th-highest ownership projection, which gives him the fourth-highest SimLeverage.
Part of the reason that Hubbard has strong projections this week is his exceptional course history. Over the last three years, he posted T41, T13, and T6 finishes at the Deere while gaining strokes from tee to green and with the flat stick in each of those weeks.
This season, Hubbard has made the cut in all 18 events he has played with four top 25s and two top 10s. He has played the weekend but been outside the top 25 in each of the last six weeks, though, which is why the public may not be ready to back him heavily this week. In this field, though, his course history and consistency are enough to make him one of my favorite GPP options in this salary range.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Michael Kim $7,400
Kim’s lone PGA TOUR career win came at the John Deere Classic in 2018, but he has yet to make the cut in his three appearances since that victory. Kim vanished from the fantasy golf landscape after that victory, but he has slowly been working his way back to relevance over the past year or so.
While he has still struggled with inconsistency, he has shown enough upside to be worth a look in GPPs due to his spike weeks. He finished in the top 10 at the American Express in January and in the top 20 at the Myrtle Beach Classic just over a month ago. Kim also made the cut in his two most recent events, the RBC Canadian Open and the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He started fast last week with a 65 on Thursday but faded the rest of the week before struggling to a 75 on Sunday.
Kim’s shown some glimpses that his ceiling is still there, though, if he can put together four strong rounds like he did six years ago on this track. He fired an impressive -27 on his way to that victory and won by a huge, eight-stroke margin.
Over his last 20 rounds, Kim ranks in the top 10 in this field in Total Strokes Gained and in the top 25 in Strokes Gained: Approach. Despite his recent flashes, Kim’s ownership projection for this week is under 2%, so he’s a contrarian play that should differentiate your lineup. He has the ninth-highest Perfect% and fifth-highest SimLeverage of the players under $7,500.
Mac Meissner $7,000
Meissner was in my picks last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and missed the cut on the number. I’m going back to the well this week for more of the promising rookie since I still am on his upside at this affordable salary.
He has the fifth-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of the players under $7,500 this week and an ownership projection of just over 2%.
Meissner already has five top 25s this season, with top 15s at the Valero Texas Open, the Charles Schwab Challenge, and the Myrtle Beach Classic over his last seven events. He ranks in the top 10 in the field over his last 24 rounds in Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s an exciting emerging ball striker and could be ready to take his game to the next level if his putter cooperates this week.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Ryan Moore $6,800
There are 95 players this week with salaries under $7,000, but digging through to find the right sleeper in a field like this can be a challenge. Moore is one option that rises to the surface in a few different categories and can be a solid sleeper play this week. He has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of the players under $7,000.
The 41-year-old veteran has played this event 14 times in his career and won in 2016 for one of his five career victories. Even aside from that win, he has a very strong history here with 12 made cuts and eight top 25s. He missed the cut last year but finished runner-up in 2021 and T24 in 2022.
Moore comes into this year’s stop at TPC Deere Run with some decent recent form as well. He made the cut and exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine tournaments, highlighted by a top-five finish at the Valspar in March. Over his last 30 rounds, he ranks in the top 10 in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
With decent form and such a great history here, Moore is a good option both as a cut-maker and a potential contender if things break his way this week.
Troy Merritt $6,800
While there are some fun young sleepers to target as well, I’m going with another veteran for my second sleeper pick. He hasn’t had the same level of success as Moore, but he also has some promising recent results. Merritt has the fifth-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of players under $7,000. His ownership projection is under 2%, and Merritt ranks in the top five of Perfect% and SimLeverage in this price bracket.
An Iowa native, Merritt has played this event 10 times in his career with six made cuts and two top 25s, including a career-best T17 last year.
Merrit struggled early in the season but has looked much better recently. He made the cut in four of his last five starts, including a T9 at the Byron Nelson and a T17 last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Merritt has the right kind of profile to fit this track as a fairway-finder who can get hot with his approach game and putting.
Over the last 20 rounds, Merritt ranks in the top 10 in this field in Total Strokes Gained, and the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting. If he can continue those trends, he’ll be in good shape for another strong showing this week and should outperform his very affordable salary.
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